The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is a terror group known for its involvement in the Islamic Independence Movement in the Philippines. This group emerged as a breakaway faction from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The Islamic Independence movement began in the 1960s and persisted until the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2019.The Bangsamoro region is home to the Moro Muslims, a majority Muslim group in that area. The Moro people have long sought independence from various powers, including the Spanish, the United States, and the Philippine government. When the possibility of independence faded, they turned their efforts toward autonomy. The push for independence gained momentum due to massacres committed by the Philippine army. As a result, mass mobilization occurred, and militant groups formed to join the fight.
The MILF was founded in 1984 with the goal of creating a Muslim community, or Ummah, in Bangsamoro that would possess a genuine Islamic System of Government and a true Islamic way of life. There is a belief that ISIS still has a strong presence in the MILF organization and the Mindanao/Sulu region of the Philippines due to the early influence of ISIS. The MILF is now at a critical juncture where it looks to establish itself as an effective governor and remove the ties with Islamic State. This article aims to evaluate the current extent of Islamic State’s influence within the MILF.
The beginning of radical Islamic influence started in the late 1900s and early 2000s when Al-Qaeda gave funding and trained militants both in the Middle East and by sending forces to the Philippines to train fighters. By 1984, the dominance of the MNLF shifted when the MILF gained power and started recruiting fighters. The MILF at their peak in the 1980s had around 60,000 members, for reference, the peak of the founding group, the MNLF, was around 15,000. The MILF had garnered four times the amount of support than the MNLF. Due in large part to the MILF’s ideals and the lack of governing success from the MNLF. The BARMM is facing scrutiny due to the inability of the Moro people to provide effective governance. The region is faced with a weak, corrupt, and ineffective government, hurting the chances for development, local stability, and human security.
The debate surrounding the Islamic State’s involvement in the BARMM highlights the risks associated with ineffective governance. In regions where governance is lacking, populations become vulnerable to extremist groups seeking to exploit grievances with the government. While there is consensus on the risk, opinions differ on which groups are influenced by the Islamic State. Justin Richmond (2023), founder of Impl. Project, an NGO working on development in the BARMM, argues that the MILF should not be associated with the Islamic State. Instead, he suggests that attention should be directed towards breakaway groups like Maute/Dawah Islamiyah. Kibtiah and Yustikaningrum (2018) do acknowledge the threat posed by breakaway groups, but maintain that the MILF still has ties to the Islamic State. Counter-terrorism efforts in the region notably focus their efforts on the Maute Group, leaving the MILF as the governors in the BARMM.
Carolan (2016) argues that the most effective counterterrorism efforts should concentrate on development and addressing governance concerns in the region to repel the Islamic State’s involvement. This raises crucial questions: will the Islamic State threat diminish by focusing on development and establishing an effective government in the BARMM? Will other Jihadist groups in the region move away from Islamic State funding and focus on other methods? Richmond (2023) points out that the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has already shifted away from Islamic State funding, focusing on trafficking opportunities from Borneo and kidnapping for ransom to fund their activities. Recent literature suggests that apart from Maute and the BIFF, Jihadist groups in the region are moving away from the Islamic State and seeking alternative sources of funding. Addressing grievances stemming from the BARMM could prevent the Islamic State from maintaining its current influence. Interestingly, many disaffected groups, such as the MNLF and Abu Sayyaf, have recently distanced themselves from the idea of a caliphate and transitioned towards a new identity as a Transnational Organized Crime group.
In recent times, ISIS’s role in the region has been diminishing, with many MILF groups actively countering the extremist messages propagated by the terrorist organization. However, there is a growing concern that due to the lack of human security and widespread poverty, young individuals may join ISIS not for ideological reasons, but for economic ones. This has led to the emergence of the Maute Group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). According to Richmond (2023), both groups draw their members from disaffected MILF factions, which are numerous due to the poor service delivery by the new BARMM. Although these groups operate independently, they accept funding from the Islamic State and allow them to claim responsibility for their attacks, thereby strengthening the Islamic State East Asia Province (ISEAP) foothold in the Philippines.
The problem with governance in the region is not only the absence of a formal government but also the infighting among the various MILF clans. With 13 different ethnic minorities within the Moro ethnic group, there is a constant struggle for dominance and ruling power, leading to perpetual conflict. These conflicts have led to political or power based killings, these blood feuds are also known as Rido. The main issue, however, is not the conflict itself but the lack of any real progress. Without the establishment of a unifying and effective government, the BARMM will continue to provide fertile ground for the Islamic State to recruit and spread its influence.
Figure 1: The number of attacks per group from 2018-2022 in the Philippines according to GRID
Figure 1 presents data from the Global Terrorism Trends and Analysis Center (GTTAC) Records of Incidents Database (GRID), which monitors the number of attacks carried out by various groups. Analyzing this data helps us understand current trends in these groups’ capacity and activity levels. The data reveals that the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) have experienced a decrease in attacks from 2018 to 2022. While discussing the BIFF with Justin Richmond and researching the group, there seemed to be a consensus that this group is currently the biggest threat in the region and is most connected with the Islamic State East Asia Province, the local branch of the Islamic State. However, despite the consensus on their threat, the numbers show that their attacks are decreasing. It is important to note that the lowest number of attacks from the BIFF in 2022 is similar to the highest number of attacks from Maute in 2021. This supports the focus on the disaffected groups of the MILF as the most active in terms of incidents per year. The MILF has steady numbers of attacks; however, as established over the course of this research, their attacks cannot be attributed to the Islamic State due to the recent shift and rejection of Islamic State ideals in the MILF.
The international community, including the United States and the UN, is concerned with the presence of ISIS in the region. Implementing the Basic Bangsamoro Law (BBL) is essential for growth stability, as it allows the Moro people to have a greater say in their country’s governance. As Steven Rood noted, “If they’re not achieving anything, it’s harder to keep arguing that [they] can fight for Islam through peaceful means” (p. 3). Giving the people a voice enables them to express their grievances and be heard, reducing the likelihood of resorting to violence. Development projects have been prioritized to promote progress and prevent impoverished youths from joining ISIS-affiliated groups.
The Philippine National Army has recently been effective in countering violent extremism from these groups. The war against the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), also known as the New People’s Army (NPA), has seen significant progress. The number of attacks has been steadily decreasing as the Philippine Army has cracked down on the NPA and launched more offensive operations. The casualties related to the NPA have not been related to attacks, but rather from Intelligence Based Operations initiated by the Philippine Army. Similar tactics have been employed against existing Jihadist groups in the region. The focus now is on preventing the growth of these groups, as there is a fear that they will continue to replenish their forces. By concentrating on the Olive Branch approach and establishing effective governance, coupled with a strong response from the Philippine government against Jihadist groups, the government could see a sharp decline in the capacity for Jihadist violence in the region.
Examining the current data and research from the Philippines, it is clear that the presence of the Islamic State is a pressing issue, but not an insurmountable one. The Islamic State’s reach in the BARMM has been limited to two disaffected groups, the BIFF and Maute. The ability of the Islamic State to recruit and maintain relevance in the BARMM is primarily due to the grievances associated with poor governance in the region. By addressing these concerns and focusing on the grievances of the affected population, recruitment for breakaway groups can be slowed and potentially prevented. The current counterterrorism efforts by the Philippine Army have helped limit the number of attacks, as evidenced by the decreasing trend in Figure 1. By combining these approaches, the threat posed by the Islamic State will continue to diminish. Ultimately, the establishment of effective governance and strong institutions will be the key factor in alleviating the problems in the BARMM and ensuring a more stable future for the region.
