Until Russia understands that their current path will lead to a general war with the West, there will be no lasting peace in Europe. So long as Putin is convinced that the West has no stomach for open combat, he will not be motivated to seek a political solution. The West should realize thar Putin is not a “Great Russian.” He is a Tatar. There is a difference.
The only thing Putin really understands at times is brute force. A typical reaction to a serious defeat either militarily or economically, and Russia has historically sought to bring about reforms to improve her weaknesses. Russia needs a bloody defeat, or a bloody stalemate to bring her to the bargaining table in a mood to compromise.
And the only way to do that is for the West to provide “volunteer” combat troops and combat equipment. A sudden and large enough infusion of trained and ready combat troops would prevent any Russian successful military offensive against the Ukrainian front lines. Once Russia understands that the West is willing to get its hands bloody, and assist Ukraine in staying independent, Russia will back down. She always has before.
French President Macron raised the possibility of western troops being introduced into the war between Russia and Ukraine at a recent meeting of Western European leaders.
Putin’s Russia immediately threatened to expand the war. Dimitry Peskov, personal spokesman for Vladimir Putin said “It is not in the interests of these countries, and they should be mindful. In that case (of sending troops), we would need to talk not about the probability, but about the inevitability (of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia).” For the first time since the Russo-Ukrainian War began, there was no threat of the use of nuclear weapons should foreign troops be introduced onto the battlefield. European leaders stumbled all over themselves in proclaiming there were no plans to send troops to Ukraine. Confirming Putin’s belief that the West is all talk and is not prepared to risk war.
The Use of Volunteer Combat Troops Has Happened Throughout History
The use of foreign mercenaries in war stretches back to the Greek soldiers who fought in Persia before Alexander the Great conquered Persia. Xenophon, the commander of 10,000 Greek mercenaries, fought for Cyrus the Younger. Cyrus was trying to seize the throne of Persia from his brother Artaxerxes in 403 B.C. After Cyrus the Younger was killed in battle, Zenophon led his Greek Army back to Greece, and their exploits are recorded in the Anabasis.
In the 13th century, Italian city states were not strong enough to defend themselves against aggression. However, these city states had plenty of money due to their sitting on trade routes that passed through their territories. At first only Italian mercenaries were used, but eventually Englishman became the standard mercenaries. During the 100 Years War, mercenaries were used by both the English, and the French.
During the American Revolutionary War, Great Britain used 30,000 Hessian mercenaries against the fledgling American nation.
In mid-1941, the United States allowed the Republic of China to purchase 100 P-41s. Since China did not have pilots to fly these advanced war planes, the United States allowed 99 pilots from the United States military to resign and enlist with the Republic of China. They were named the American Volunteer Group (AVG). History knows them as “The Flying Tigers.”
The Russians have already introduced foreign mercenaries into the conflict. Nepalese are fighting in Ukraine for Russia, as well as Cuban nationals. There are an estimated 15,000 Nepalese fighters currently in Ukraine. Russia recruited these fighters without the knowledge of the Nepalese government. It is not known how many Cubans are fighting in Ukraine for Russia, but they are being recruited without the knowledge of the Cuban government.
The West does not need to send their troops to Ukraine, they merely need to pay foreign mercenaries to join the Ukrainian forces.
Using Letters of Marque and Reprisals as Asymmetrical Warfare at Sea
Russia’s economy while hurt by Western sanctions has been able to withstand these sanctions by shipping oil to India and China by loading super oil tankers at sea from smaller vessels.
Russia is currently operating a shadow fleet estimated to be 1,400 old oil tankers that evade Western sanctions. These vessels are not insured, operate outside of normal shipping lanes and do not use their automatic identification systems. (AIS). Because using newer ships are too expensive to risk, these shadow fleet boats are old, rusting and prone to accidents. The Norwegian Coastal Administration has observed small ship transferring of what is believed to be oil to a supertanker off the coast of Morocco and Greece. Russia is getting her oil out to India and China. Even heavily discounted Russian oil brings in enough money to pay for Russia’s war.
In a PBS report news hour report, that some 30 million barrels of Russian crude has found its way into the United States energy market. Russian crude is blended with other foreign crude at the Indian oil refinery at Jamnagar. Before the Russo-Ukrainian War hardly any Russian crude was processed at the Jamnagar oil refinery. Currently 1/3rd of oil refined at Jamnagar is from Russia. The “blended” crude is then refined into energy products which are then sold to energy companies in the United States. Some $180 million dollars flowed into Russian coffers this way. That is enough money to buy 105 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 8,600 Iranian drones.
While Texas Democrat Lloyd Doggett has introduced an amendment to the sanctions to try and close this loophole, however due to geopolitical concerns with India, it is highly doubtful that the United States will close this loophole. Europe is also purchasing refined oil products that came from Russian crude.
There is another way to stop this shadow oil trade. In the past during wartime, countries would issue Letters of Marque and Reprisals. Such an authorization allowed citizens to attack belligerent ships, seize them, and then sell the ship, and its contents for a profit. In the 2021-2022 Congress, Representative Lance Goodman (R) introduced HR 6869 which would allow the President of the United States to issue letters of marque for the purpose of seizing the assets of certain Russian citizens. It never passed.
With Ukraine’s financial difficulty, it would make sense for Ukraine to issue letters of marque and reprisal. This would allow for the legal seizure of Russia’s shadow fleet and deprive Russia of the revenue generated by the shadow oil tankers. Since these tankers sail alone, and not in general sailing routes, a small vessel armed with naval rifles would find it very easy to capture these old and slow-moving shadow oil tankers. Then place the crew under arrest and sail the oil tanker to a neutral port. The capturing agent would sell the oil, and the oil tanker. Ukraine would receive a percentage of the profits. The United States could easily locate these shadow tankers and pass their location onto the Ukrainians.
The use of letters of marque and reprisal is legal since Ukraine never signed the 1856 Declaration of Paris, which outlawed letters of marque and reprisal. Ironically the Declaration of Paris was signed in conjunction with the Treaty of Paris that ended the Crimean War. The United States is not a signatory to the Declaration of Paris either. That means the United States helping Ukraine with letters of marque and reprisal would be legal.
