The classical Indian scholar Kautilya, in his book Arthashastra, presents the Mandala Theory, which directs the king (leader) on how to assess one’s neighbour. Kautilya states that your neighbour is your enemy, and your neighbour’s neighbour is your friend. This is primarily how geopolitics functions: ‘keep your friends close but your enemies closer’. But, when it comes to understanding the geopolitics of a region like South Asia, it requires a comprehensive perspective to assess, primarily due to its geographical set-up. India occupies the largest geographical area and has played the role of a ‘big brother’ to ensure the stability of the region.
The biggest threat to India’s role in the region is challenged by China, which, like Kautilya’s Mandala Theory, has extended its hand of cooperation to India’s neighbours. Of late, the blooming friendship between the Maldives and China has received varied views from the geopolitical analysts. This comes at a time when India and the Maldives are involved in a diplomatic row after Maldivian ministers engaged in making negative comments on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pictures from Lakshwadeep. This article will assess the following questions: What is the relationship between India and the Maldives? What is the impact on Maldivian foreign policy post-Muizzu’s ascendency to power? And what is the role of China in this geopolitical gamut?
What is the India-Maldives relation?
Both India and the Maldives share a long-standing cordial relationship as they share common ethno-cultural and religious ties. The Maldives is located in the south-west of India and shares a long-standing relationship. India has engagement with the Maldives on all fronts—military, political, security, economic, and socio-cultural. However, the recent spat between the two countries has strained this relationship.
In early January 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared pictures from his visit to Lakshwadeep, an island in the Indian Ocean. The photographs soon received negative commentary from three deputy ministers in the Ministry of Youth Affairs of the Maldivian government. They accused the Indian Prime Minister of posing a challenge to Maldivian tourism. The issue soon turned into a diplomatic row as the Indian government raised the issue with the Maldivian government, resulting in the suspension of the ministers. Further, the controversy led many Indians to cancel their trips to the Maldives, which affected local tourism. It quickly witnessed a surge of hypernationalism in both countries, which can prove detrimental to the stability of the region.
The Maldives is significant to India due to its strategic location, and hence, under its “Neigbourhood First Policy,” India has always maintained a very cordial relationship. Be it militarily—as a quick response through Operation Cactus in 1988—or being the first state to help during the 2004 tsunami or helping build the health sector, among others—India has always maintained itself as a net security provider to the Maldives. In fact, the Maldives was the first country to receive COVID-19 vaccines from India under the Vaccine Maitri initiative. The Maldives is not merely India’s neighbour but has been a strategic ally in the Indian Ocean region.
This cordial relationship now seems to be under strain following the victory of Mohamed Muizzu as the new president, who campaigned for his election on an “India Out” agenda. How adversely will this new change affect India’s relations with the Maldives? The next section will address this question.
Muizzu, Maldives and a Myriad of Changes
President Mohamed Muizzu took charge as head of state in November 2023 and has not hesitated to highlight his intentions of aligning closer with China. His closest ally, Abdullah Yameen, former President of the Maldives, launched the ‘India Out’ campaign, which was subsequently picked up by Muizzu in the 2023 elections. It is speculated to be an act of resentment against the alleged deep-rooted influence of India over Male’s politics.
Muizzu and Modi met on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, which appeared like a good start to bilateral relations. During the meeting, it was also suggested to set up a core group to carry forward the discussion they had in Dubai. However, altering the political legacy, President Muizzu decided to visit Turkey as his first foreign visit as opposed to visiting India. This sparked a lot of debate among the analysts who think that Muizzu has begun to execute his ‘India Out’ agenda. The diplomatic strings stretched further when the Maldives asked India to remove its military personnel performing aerial surveillance along the former’s ocean territory to monitor criminal activities like drug smuggling. Further, the Maldives has revoked its agreement on the hydrographic survey agreement signed in 2019 between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. The agreement was important for both countries to procure information regarding the seas and could be used by both the military and civilians.
Muizzu’s pro-China approach was quickly reflected when he signed over 20 agreements with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, in his first state visit to China. It resulted in elevating the bilateral ties between the two countries to that of a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. The agreements signed included the blue economy, disaster risk reduction, enhancing the Belt and Road Initiative, and infrastructural and Maldivian tourism, among others. Further, Muizzu has expressed his intentions of implementing the Maldives-China Free Trade Agreement.
The loose strings with India have given China an opportunity to strengthen its ties with the Maldives. The section will discuss this aspect.
Two Neighbours and a Wily Benefactor: China’s role in the geopolitical gamut
Historically, China has been at loggerheads with India to gain greater control in the Southern Asia region. It has categorically extended its alliance with countries that are close to India, creating a sort of entrapment of what is known as the “String of Pearls.” The Maldives is one such pearl that is extremely crucial for China. Its strategic location in the Indian Ocean is closer to one of the most prominent trading routes in the world. Further, with the rise of QUAD as a defence and security forum in the Indo-Pacific region, China is trying harder to grow its alliance with the smaller countries in the region.
During his first state visit to China, Muizzu signed 20 agreements with China covering various domains, including economic ties. Muizza has already expressed his interest in strengthening the FTA with China. Moreover, the Maldives will also be looking at incorporating the Belt and Road Initiative. This will give China immense power to influence the region and challenge India’s power in the region. Further, like Sri Lanka, which leased out the Hambantota Port to China; if the Maldives intends to do something similar, it will pose a direct threat to India’s defence and security scenario. The proximity of China so close to India will only prove beneficial for China to monitor Indian military activities. China will also have access to vast resources, especially in the seas.
This shift in the geopolitical scenario in South Asia sheds a significant light on the role of smaller states in politics. There are no party friends or foes in politics. Every state has to do its best for its own country. These smaller states often take the positive-sum game approach to ensure that a balance is maintained. After all, protecting the interests of its own state is of utmost importance.
Way Forward
India has always maintained a cordial relationship with the Maldives, primarily under its ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’. Despite Muizzu’s pro-China approach, India has not reacted adversely to the Maldives request to remove military personnel from the state. Historically, India has always pressed on diplomacy and dialogue to resolve issues, and they are likely to follow the same track. For some analysts, this might sound like blind optimism; however, the Maldives cannot afford to turn a blind eye to India. Apart from defence, security, and humanitarian relations, the Maldives also receives the highest number of tourists from India. If the Maldives decides to completely ignore India, it is going to face severe economic ramifications. India continues to believe that the high-level talks will bring a fruitful result under these negotiations.
Although the Maldives has approached a pro-China policy, it will not get involved in big power rivalry. The Maldives is aware of the inherent Chinese tendency to get involved in debt traps and will surely not want to jeopardise its economy for the sake of ego in politics. Perhaps what both countries should do is check the rise of hypernationalism and look for ways to track misinformation or hate speech through social media.
The game of geopolitics requires the leaders to be adaptive to enhance the best benefits of their own country. It will be crucial to see the upcoming results of the negotiations and how that will affect India as it heads for elections in a few months.
