The changing geopolitical order and shifting global power balance has gained perceptible momentum with raging Gaza war. The generic policy statement of the US for two-state solution in the face of its impossibility on the ground has been progressively sapping its credibility. The growing isolation in the United Nations General Assembly and the Security Council on the issue has been denting its global stature. The increasing divergence of opinion and perception of European partners making its position further untenable. The US opposition to the call for ceasefire in the face rising support in the rest of the world is making its strategy and justification unsustainable. The lackluster responses of its European allies as well as Arab allies are stark reminder of opposition to its strategy in the crisis.
There is a conspicuous absence of shared strategy with Israel on the crisis underway, post war outcomes and settlement as well as long term durable peace with Palestine. There is a growing perception of the United States led by the strategy of Israel that profoundly relegates its own policy and strategy in the region and its global stature. The Arab partners not only not on-board to its stance but becoming increasingly vocal in their opposing stance, views and even protest. The gain of the Abraham Accord is in a down syndrome.
There is a growing trend of shift among its Arab partners towards the US’s global competitors- China and Russia. The influence of the latter in the regional geopolitics has deepened substantially pushing the United States to receding margin. The Extraordinary delegation of OIC and Arab League reached out to China first for ceasefire and a lasting peace. This abundantly indicates the waning US credibility among the countries of the region and its Arab partners in particular.
The growing voices of the Global South for immediate ceasefire in the face of expanding Israeli military operation and the US support undermines the power influence in the increasing vocal and assertive part of the global. The Global South assumes an enhance position in the emerging multipolar world. The US strategy in the crisis is spurring the influences of its global rivals- China and Russia. Such a trend would have a de-legitimizing impact on US as a global power, not to speak about its exceptionalism in the region and beyond.
The United States commitment for security of Israel remains a strong element of its policy in the region. Its iron-clad support and policy of maintaining Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) forms crucial content of US strategy in the region. But the festering Palestine issue remains a constant source of disruption in the region. There is a close relation between the resolution of ‘Palestine Question’ and the lasting security of Israel. The armed peace maintained by Qualitative Military Edge of Israel is not enough to establish a genuine security system. The breach of iron wall securitization of Israeli borders with its iron dome system and technological monitoring system by Hamas on 7th October has proven that security can not be ensured with an enhanced military capacity only. Thus, fostering of dialogue and diplomacy to reach a comprehensive and peaceful resolution of the Palestine issue would serve core concern of security of Israel, the priority of the US strategy in the region.
The world is fast moving away from the US’s ‘Unipolar Moment’ towards a multipolar world with assertive China and aggressive Russia challenging the United States primacy in the regional and global politics and influence. There is growing divergence of approach between the US and Europe as well as within Europe. There is growing anti-US and anti-West popular sentiments in the region. This also finds in an increasing political coordination at the elite level and gains of American order in the region with Abraham Accord and expected Israel-Saudi normalization has been put into a reverse track.
The region is on blaze with the Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsha Flood and the counter Israel’s Operation Iron Sword. These violent operations are bound to spill over into the wider region in an unprecedented scale and can push the entire region into an inextricable quagmire. The unflinching Houthi strikes in the Red Sea and the Operation Prosperity Guardian is an ascending collision course and dangerous escalatory patter. The belligerent rhetoric of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance and Israel and reciprocal military actions is on an acceleratory momentum. War and military actions are not final step to peace. Every war ends with diplomacy and peace conference. Historical wisdom and geopoltical prudence warrants dialogue and diplomacy to take charge for cessation of conflict and durable peace.
There is an urgent need of a comprehensive assessment of US policy and current strategy with the crisis underway to retain its global leadership of free world and retain its predominance in the region as a stabilizing power. The lingering of the crisis would lead to unprecedented alliance of opposition in the region based on their national interests and inability of partners to support US strategy of denial of the reality. China and Russia would deepen their influence as a formidable and dependable global powers in the region. A prudent revision of its strategy is warranted to retain its influence in the region, security of its partners, stability of the region and a long term and sustainable security of Israel in particular. The region and the world has changed. The US hegemony is no more uncontested and therefore needs a commensurate change in policy with revised strategy.
