Many of those who closely monitor the presidential election race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden would acknowledge the profound impact of U.S. politics on global dynamics after the election.
The central question concerns interpreting this political landscape, emphasizing the struggle between establishment and anti-establishment factions. Numerous leftist movements globally champion populism to an unprecedented degree. Traditional conservatives face a dilemma: embracing populism or adhering to principles. In practice, many conservatives, exemplified by the U.S. Republican Party led by Mitch McConnell, tend to shy away from strict principles, seeking populism yet struggling to compete with the Democratic Party. This has led to the rise of the anti-establishment faction, epitomized by Trump, forcing even the Republican Party under McConnell to align with him to ensure survival and emphasize its values.
Most right-wing anti-establishment factions in Europe, like Reform UK (formerly the Brexit Party), Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in France, and conservative parties in the Netherlands and Spain, struggle to gain majority support. Only the right-wing party in Italy has achieved electoral victories. The trajectory for Europe is long, but the direction is clear—towards the success of anti-establishment factions challenging the status quo. South America, however, presents a different narrative.
In South America, the concept of a moderate faction is nearly nonexistent, and political dynamics often mirror the fervor for football. Nonetheless, the developmental path of South American countries remains of significant interest. In Argentina, the anti-establishment candidate Javier Milei recently secured victory as the president-elect with a 55% to 45% margin over the leftist, signaling a political shift towards conservatism in South America. Dubbed the “Argentinian Trump”, Milei inspires anti-establishment factions in the United States. In the 2024 U.S. elections, Trump might achieve a significant victory, potentially regaining the White House and securing an unprecedented eight-year presidential term.
The global trend is swiftly moving towards conservatism. The rise of anti-establishment factions reflects a self-preservation mechanism within Western political economies. Failure to activate such a response could lead to social upheavals and transformative shifts in national identity. Anti-establishment factions, while distinct from the establishment, operate within societal frameworks, injecting vitality by challenging established norms. This is not a revolutionary upheaval akin to Lenin’s overthrow of the Russian monarchy; the state’s nature remains unchanged, yet governance transformations are imminent.