Evolving Dynamics of Iran-US Relations


The intricate tapestry of Iran-US relations, which dates back to the mid-20th century, has recently undergone a notable transformation, marked by increased hostility and heightened tensions. While this rivalry has deep historical roots, the tenure of President Trump brought it to the forefront, exacerbated by a variety of factors including the influence of Israel. The recent military deployments and troop movements near Iran have further added a new layer to the complex geopolitical landscape.

Historical Background:

The origins of the Iran-US rivalry can be traced back to the 1950s when Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, was ousted with the support of the United States and the United Kingdom, leading to the installation of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 and the subsequent hostage crisis at the US Embassy in Tehran further strained bilateral ties. Decades of suspicion, mistrust, and divergent geopolitical agendas have fueled this rivalry, influencing policy decisions on both sides.

Clash of Interests and Influences:

During President Trump’s tenure, the Iran-US relationship witnessed a significant intensification in hostility, largely attributed to factors like Israeli influence. The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, and the subsequent imposition of strict economic sanctions on Iran deepened the divide. The false and merely imaginary Israel’s concerns regarding Iran’s regional influence and nuclear ambitions have strongly influenced US policy decisions, amplifying the adversarial stance.

Military Deployments and Regional Implications:

The recent military deployments and troop movements near Iran underscore the gravity of the situation. Such actions have the potential to further escalate tensions, inadvertently sparking conflicts with catastrophic consequences. Immediate neighbors like Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, Turkey, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, already residing in a volatile region, could bear the brunt of any escalation. The GCC, in particular, faces the challenge of maintaining stability amidst the tit-for-tat actions and reactions that characterize this rivalry.

Global Impact and Geopolitical Dynamics:

The Iran-US conflict transcends regional boundaries, impacting global dynamics. Iran’s strategic alliances with China and Russia add a new dimension to the equation. Both nations have supported Iran, albeit for their own geopolitical interests. Iran’s aspirations to join organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS reflect its attempts to diversify its international relationships and reduce dependency on the West. These efforts have the potential to shift the geopolitical balance, challenging US dominance on the world stage.

Disadvantages of the US.

The US has been cruel to the Muslim world or almost the last two decades. Whether it is Attacks on Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, or Arab Spring, all were aimed at harming Muslim World. As a result, Anti-American sentiments grew in the region. May be the official position of the most of Muslim World is pro-American, but, public opinion is anti-America. Availing this opportunity, Russia and China got closer ties with the Muslim World. On the other hand, while the US was over-engaged in suppressing the Muslim world, Russia struggled to revive and China worked hard to rise. The US is losing ground in the Middle East, leaving space for Russia and China. The situation is almost out of the control of the US. Iran has developed its own capabilities and attained independence in respect of security and economy. Especially its defense capabilities have been improved a lot.

Iran is an important country in respect of natural resources, especially Oil and Gas. West needs Energy and is dependent on Iran’s Oil and Gas. Furthermore, the discovery of Lithium reserves in Iran has made it even more significant for the Western World. In this scenario, if something goes wrong, the West may also suffer a lot, it might be a global disaster, not limited to Iran only.

As the situation unfolds, it is imperative for both nations to recognize the potential for destructive outcomes and seek diplomatic resolutions that can mitigate tensions. The world watches with a vested interest as these two nations navigate the treacherous waters of international diplomacy, with repercussions that extend far beyond their borders. The way forward is a political dialogue under the charter of the UN and the resolution of all differences diplomatically. The world cannot afford any more war and must be averted.

Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan
Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.


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