The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the crisis involving Taiwan, have transformed Asia into a prospective arena for geopolitical tensions among major global powers. Given the circumstances, the proposal to establish a liaison NATO office in Japan has emerged in response to the joint efforts of the United States and Japan to ensure security issues pertaining to Asia and in the Indo-Pacific. This initiative has gained momentum, particularly due to growing apprehensions surrounding military assertiveness by China in the region.
NATO was established as a transatlantic security organization with the primary objective of countering the Communist bloc during the Soviet era. In light of the evolving dynamics of international relations, NATO has endeavored to delineate the growing influence of China while providing support to Ukraine in response to Russia’s military intervention. The expansion of NATO in the region, particularly in Japan, is predicated on various geopolitical factors. The United States seeks to expand the presence of NATO in the Asia-Pacific region in order to safeguard its strategic interests. The United States has established a military alliance with various European nations in order to counter the influence of Russia in the Western region. Additionally, the United States seeks to establish a robust multilateral military alliance in the Eastern region to effectively address and balance China’s regional ambitions. Furthermore, Asia holds significant importance for NATO allies in Europe, just as Europe plays a crucial role in ensuring the security of Asia. Hence, it is imperative for NATO allies to enhance their partnership with Indo-Pacific states by expanding presence in East-Asia notably Japan. In addition, the increasing military collaboration between Beijing and Moscow in the Indo-Pacific region, including joint patrols conducted over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, has compelled prominent US allies such as Japan to reassess their security strategies within the region. The implementation of patrols, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the establishment of an unrestricted partnership between China and Russia have posed a potential threat to Japan’s regional standing. The extensive growth of bilateral relations between the aforementioned nations has exerted pressure on the United States to consider expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Asia.
NATO and Japan have expressed their intention to enter into the Individually Tailored Partnership Program (ITPP) from an economic perspective. The establishment of the liaison office aims to enhance collaboration between NATO and the four countries, commonly referred to as the Asia-Pacific partners of NATO. Japan, along with South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, are all participants in the AP4 alliance. From a holistic perspective, it can be argued that Japan and NATO would collaborate in order to safeguard security in cyber threats, disruptive technologies, and disinformation activities. From a strategic perspective, it can be argued that Russia’s status as a partner of NATO has diminished, while the growing influence of China is expected to have implications for trans-European security. The establishment of a NATO office in Tokyo should not be interpreted as Japan’s formal accession to the alliance. However, it is important to acknowledge that this development could be perceived as a significant step towards China. Furthermore, the cooperative efforts between NATO and Japan, along with their endeavors to challenge the “One China” policy regarding Taiwan, are likely to exacerbate the risk of conflict in the region. The establishment of the NATO office in Japan further supports its objective of remilitarization. China’s recent expansion of its naval and air capabilities in proximity to Japan, coupled with its territorial claims over the Senkaku Islands, has raised significant concerns regarding Japan’s security and sovereignty within the region. In response, Japan has expressed interest in engaging in armed conflict alongside a strategic partner in the pursuit of self-defense. Japan is effectively circumventing the provisions outlined in Article 9 of its constitution, which explicitly prohibits the country from maintaining a military force or engaging in acts of warfare.
However, the establishment of a NATO office in Japan has garnered criticism from France, a significant NATO ally. French President Emmanuel Macron has expressed his opposition to the establishment of a NATO office in Asia. This observation exemplifies France’s decision to not support any actions that contribute to the escalation of tensions between NATO and China. In order to establish a NATO office, it is essential to obtain unanimous approval from the North Atlantic Council. It is worth noting that France possesses the authority to impede the implementation of this proposal. Following Macron’s visit to China, France has signaled that Europe would adopt a cautious approach towards the ongoing tensions between China and the United States concerning Taiwan. Furthermore, the establishment of a NATO office has the potential to erode Europe’s credibility with China concerning the conflict in Ukraine, specifically regarding efforts to dissuade China from providing military support to Russia. According to Macron’s argument, it is emphasized that the expansion of NATO should be restricted to the North Atlantic region, as both Article V and Article VI define the boundaries of NATO’s scope. Additionally, France is pursuing strategic independence of Europe from United States. Regarding the remaining European allies within NATO, these nations are in a predicament due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis. They are faced with the dilemma of whether expanding NATO’s influence would impose an excessive economic and military burden on them.
In such advancement, China has remained critical to the proposition of establishing a liaison office in Japan. China is assuming that the presence of a NATO office in Japan may lead to interference in regional and economic affairs. During the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue held in Singapore, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu issued a cautionary statement regarding the promotion of NATO-like alliances in the Asia-Pacific region. China has urged United States not to involve any countries from Asia to the alliance. Also, China is skeptic towards United States as it perceives the idea to be serving western hegemonic interests. China foresees Asia and Indo-Pacific as a ground for collaboration and peaceful progress rather than a stage for geopolitical conflicts through military alliances. In addition, NATO allies have expressed concern towards China due to its failure to denounce Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
NATO is currently committed to security of Asia and Indo-Pacific due to the ongoing security dilemma. Nevertheless, the expansion of NATO has been a subject of deliberation among the alliance’s partners. It has put Asia outside the geographical boundaries of the North Atlantic region. In the context of geopolitical dynamics, Japan has strengthened its alliance with the United States in order to manage Sino-Russian influence in the Asia and Indo-Pacific region. Despite not being a formal member of NATO, the establishment of a NATO office in Tokyo conveys a symbolic message to the Asia-Pacific partners of the alliance, indicating its willingness to assume a role in potential conflicts in the East China Sea.
In concluding remarks, it is worth noting that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has compelled Japan to rethink its approach to regional security. This development has raised apprehensions regarding the United States’ key ally in the Asia and Indo-Pacific regions. However, the expansion of this security framework could potentially have significant geopolitical implications for increased militarization in the Asia and Indo-Pacific region.
