The relationship between the United States of America and China reached its lowest levels due to the continuous American interference in Taiwan affairs and the increase in American arms sales to the Taiwanese capital, Taipei, so the relationship between China and the United States of America was strained due to many American interventions, from the issue of Taiwan sovereignty to issues of espionage and disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea.
Many doubts have increased about the scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan similar to Russia’s war with Ukraine, especially with the announcement by Russian President “Vladimir Putin” in a joint statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China that international relations have entered a new era, during President Putin’s visit to Beijing to attend the Olympic Games on February 4, 2022. We find here that the tension in relations between the United States of America and China has led to making Taiwan the most dangerous area of tension in the world. The Chinese Communist Party asserts that it is a breakaway territory from China’s national sovereignty, and that its reunification with mainland China is only a matter of time. Here, Beijing has made it clear that it is willing to use force to achieve this. For its part, the United States seems determined to prevent it from happening, as President Joe Biden has declared on several occasions that the United States of America has an “obligation to defend Taiwan”. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense analyzed that the Chinese military had “learned from the Russian invasion of Ukraine” that any potential Chinese attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed. For this reason, the circles of officials in the Taiwanese capital, Taipei, are widely discussing the potential impact of the war between China and Taiwan on the thinking of the Chinese army itself in Taiwan, and how the Chinese can attack the Taiwanese island, which it considers a sovereign part of Chinese territory. At the same time, China has never ruled out the use of force to impose its control over Taiwan, and it still organizes almost daily military patrols near the Taiwanese island and the Taiwan Strait.
As for the Chinese response to Taiwan compared to China, we find here the difference of visions between China and Russia in their strategic priorities regarding the war on the fronts of Ukraine and Taiwan. The Russian war against Ukraine is an attempt by Russian President Putin to secure areas close to the country, to counter the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) towards the east, due to Russia’s fear of the possibility of Ukraine and other countries in the region joining NATO, which may lead to the deterioration of the strategic environment surrounding Russia.
In my view, the hypothesis that “China’s violation of the Air Defense Identification Area (ADIS) in Taiwan is indicative of plans for an operation” is wrong. Over the past years, China has entered the Taiwanese “Adiz” region several times at different times, and despite that, nothing has happened.
In contrast, China’s strategic priority remains to maintain a peaceful environment conducive to its economic growth. The “Chinese dream” of Chinese President “Xi Jinping” is represented in the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which implies making China once again the center of East Asia, and as a result this does not necessitate a rush towards regional expansion, but it calls for another long-term historical mission for China to It becomes a full-fledged superpower, so China cannot now rush to fight a war in the direction of Taiwan.
The future of self-governing Taiwan, which Beijing wants to submit to its rule as part of China’s national sovereignty, remains one of the most thorny security issues between the two superpowers, and Washington and Taiwan are increasingly concerned that China might invade Taiwan, and the US Department of Defense fears the Pentagon to enter into any possible conflict in Confronting China, which threatens regional and global stability. To that end, the United States is trying to promote its firm commitment to maintaining the status quo on the Taiwanese island and opposing unilateral changes by either the Chinese or the Taiwanese. However, the concerns of Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific region increased following the recent Chinese moves around the Taiwanese island, especially after it expanded its naval fleet and military islands in the South China Sea, and the efforts of the Chinese authorities to formulate security agreements in the islands of the South Pacific region, in addition to China’s escalation of its claims to disputed territorial areas.
Here, fears of an invasion of Taiwan have exacerbated in the recent period, after Beijing conducted intensive military maneuvers around the Taiwanese island, and Beijing refused explicitly to condemn Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, which draws attention to the fact that Taiwan has become a potential conflict point in Asia.
Despite the wide differences between the geopolitical situations of Russia, Ukraine and the Taiwan issue, a number of indicators highlight China’s increased intentions and focus towards invading the Taiwanese island after a series of US provocations during the recent period, in addition to encouraging the United States of America to the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense to conduct more military maneuvers. in the Taiwan Strait in the face of the presence and increasing Chinese influence on the Taiwanese island.
The last analysis remains, that there is another factor that would make it a mistake for China to invade Taiwan, and that is the timing factor. China and Russia have been working jointly against the hegemony of the United States of America for many years. Beijing has always been the strongest alternative to American hegemony in the world order. Therefore, China will seek to assert the supremacy of its ideology first in order to become the dominant actor in the current system before establishing its own world order.