Thailand’s opposition parties have won a historic election victory, routing traditionally dominant parties aligned with the military. But will this translate into a new reformist government, or will the military step in to keep power?
This comes as the Move Forward and Pheu Thai parties are projected to win around 151 and 141 parliamentary seats respectively in the 500-member House of Representatives. Both parties also received the largest share of the popular vote.
The parties in the ruling coalition fared poorly. The Prime Ministers United Thai Nation party won 36 seats, the Deputy Prime Minister’s Palang Pracharath party 40 and he Bhumjaithai and Democrat parties had 71 and 25.
This represents a widespread rejection of military-backed parties and the junta in general, which has held power in Thailand for decades. Pundits also put the result down to the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the country’s poor economic growth in recent years.
The record turnout by Thais also shows the youth of Thailand desires meaningful political change that rejuvenates democracy while taking power away from the military and monarchy.
The progressive, youth-led Move Forward promised to reform both if elected. This includes promising to scrap the military-drafted constitution, abolish conscription, reduce the size of the military and reform Thailand’s strict ‘lese majeste’ laws, which impose jail time for insulting the royal family.
In scenes of jubilation, the leader of Move Forward invited Pheu Thai and four other opposition parties to form an alliance, stating that ““I am Pita Limjaroenrat, the next prime minister of Thailand” and that “we are ready to form the government”.
The populist Pheu Thai has been around for decades and is led by former, and controversial, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. However, Pheu Thai is also liberal and has a similar policy platform to Move Forward.
In a positive step, the leader of Pheu Thau has reportedly promised to form a coalition with Move Forward, with many smaller parties likely to join in an attempt to form a new government.
But the hard work starts now.
The military government is unlikely to take the defeat lightly. It has ruled Thailand for over a decade, undertaking coup d’états, altering the country’s constitution and repressing protest movements to maintain its grip on power.
This includes changing electoral laws, giving the junta the power to appoint 250 members of the Senate. The Senate, along with the House of Representatives, will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister, who will in turn form a new government. This gives the military a distinct advantage.
The two victorious parties will need to spend the coming weeks negotiating with other parties and politicians to win votes, including the military-appointed Senate. The Senate will likely demand shelving any reforms to the constitution, monarchy or armed forces.
Ken Mathis Lohatepanont, a Thai political analyst, addressed the potential impasse, stating that “at this point, whether or not the Senate would be willing to respect Move Forward’s mandate is still unclear.”
Move Forward Deputy Leader Sirikanya Tansakul has said it would be “shameful” for the Senate to override the will of voters.
The junta could also try and influence the outcome in other ways.
In 2019, the Thai election commission took more than six weeks to publicly release the final results, with the eventual outcome different from preliminary results, leaving Pheu Thai short of a governing majority.
There were also reports of electoral irregularities in the lead up to the election, including incomplete and mislabelled ballots.
The military could also undertake yet another coup to retain power through force, detaining and prosecuting opposition politicians and crushing any public dissent.
But, considering the overwhelming result, the military is playing a dangerous game if they do.
Thailand has changed, with young voters more engaged and more willing to speak out about their desire for democracy.
This was evident in 2020, when a youth-led protest movement of hundreds of thousands of people swept Thailand, calling for constitutional reforms to reign in the monarchy.
Puangthong Pawakapan, an Associate Professor at Chulalongorn University, has explained that “what’s become evident is that younger Thais now believe their rights and freedom to criticise any institution with a political role that uses taxpayer money.”
This could mean that the military has finally run out of time.
If successful, opposition parties have a golden opportunity to create meaningful change in Thailand, including strengthening democratic institutions and ensuring the human rights of Thais are respected.
For this to work, the opposition will need to tread carefully, performing a delicate balancing act of negotiating with military-backed politicians to form government while also applying pressure to the current regime though peaceful protests on the streets.
This won’t be easy, but it can be achieved.
The next few weeks may finally see people power succeed in Thailand.
