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On social welfare, views in EU can surprise and emerging markets bring new perspectives

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Public perceptions of “social Europe” signal support for more EU integration, while new welfare regimes abroad highlight a worldwide trend.

By SOFIA STRODT

More than half of a century of economic and political integration in the EU has stripped away many taboos about pooling national powers in a third area: social policy.

While welfare firmly remains the responsibility of Member States, the case for EU institutions to play a stronger role in social matters such as wage rules, pension benefits, unemployment assistance and gender equality has gained ground.

The eurozone crisis and more recent Covid-19 pandemic have reinforced the case by widening economic and social disparities across the EU.

Horizon Magazine asked two leading researchers in EU-funded projects on social welfare – Sharon Baute of EUSOCDIV and Erdem Yörük of EmergingWelfare – to share their main findings. 

EUSOCDIV examined public attitudes towards the notion of “social Europe”. EmergingWelfare, whose funding came through the European Research Council, looked outside the EU at social security systems in six emerging economies.

Sharon Baute, EUSOCDIV and assistant professor of comparative social policy at the University of Konstanz in Germany. Her research covers social policy, European integration and Euroscepticism, focusing in particular on public attitudes toward the welfare dimension of the EU. 

What were the project’s main findings on public views of “social Europe”?

Citizens perceive social Europe mainly as solidarity between states rather than between individuals. In countries that have more generous social protection, citizens tend to be less supportive of an EU-level initiative in this area because they can already rely on an efficient social safety net in their home country.

The less generous national welfare provisions are, the higher the public’s expectations regarding the EU’s role in the social area. Citizens are expecting their country to benefit from upwards convergence through more EU decision-making.

Did the research produce any surprises?

Yes. We knew that people can attribute blame for economic outcomes to various actors. For instance, they may have certain beliefs about why some people live in poverty or why some countries perform less well than others in terms of economic growth and employment. However, we did not yet know that attributing blame towards the EU itself is associated with a stronger demand for a social Europe.

This is a positive sign as it indicates that criticism towards the EU does not necessarily result in hard Euroscepticism. Instead, it can be mobilised into support for further European integration steps – if these have a strong social dimension.

Generally, it is the lower educated socio-economic status groups who are more Eurosceptic. However, I found that these segments of society are often most in favour of a stronger social Europe.

It seems that they dislike the EU in its current form while being supportive of more European integration in the social area. This shows that public attitudes are complex and cannot be simplified when debating the future of European integration.

How nuanced are views of “social Europe”?

Europeans have more nuanced opinions on social Europe than is often assumed. Public attitudes towards social Europe cannot be reduced to a single pro-versus-anti social Europe stance. The research shows that attitudes are much more complex than that. Citizens’ attitudes really depend on what specific policy principle or instrument is at stake.

Nonetheless, I found similarities in support of certain policies. For instance, there is a universal ranking order on how deserving one considers specific groups in society of European solidarity. In all the countries that were part of the study, disadvantaged children were considered as more deserving of financial support than the poor, who are in turn perceived as more deserving than the unemployed.

What degree of public support exists for EU-level initiatives in this area?

Three broad factors determine the level of public support. First, the policy design itself matters. EU policies that have some form of conditionality – the principle that benefits are tied to obligations for people to behave responsibly – are generally more popular.

Second, support depends on individual-level characteristics, with lower socio-economic groups and left-wing oriented voters among the strongest advocates of a social Europe.

Third, support depends on the Member State in which citizens live. In this regard, the project revealed an East-West and North-South divide, with citizens in eastern and southern Europe being the most supportive of EU-level initiatives that provide financial assistance to vulnerable groups in society.

Erdem Yörük, EmergingWelfare and associate professor in the Department of Sociology at Koç University in Turkey. His focal points include social movements and welfare. 

What is the broad context for welfare regimes in Argentina, Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Turkey?

Before the 2000s, poor people from rural areas or slums were mostly excluded from the welfare state. But after the 2000s, the welfare-state model rapidly expanded to cover these populations. This meant that more disadvantaged people had access to social-assistance benefits for the first time. This was a historical moment.

Emerging-market economies such as Brazil, South Africa and Turkey differ from liberal, corporatist and social-democratic welfare regimes of the Global North in terms of their composition and generosity. In these emerging markets, the welfare state’s focus is on social assistance programmes mainly because the poor are the main actors in terms of political grassroots activism and popular support for governments.

What are the resulting political challenges?

Governments in these countries are developing social-welfare programmes not just to combat poverty but also, and mainly, as a political instrument to contain social unrest and to gain popular support.

Citizen movements demand more structural reforms, but they are provided with social assistance. This is what we call demobilisation by substitution.

How did you decide which countries to examine?

Previous studies on welfare regimes have had a mostly Eurocentric view and our aim was to extend it to a global scope. This is the first comparative project on the politics of welfare regimes with a global outlook and I wanted to understand the position of emerging markets.

These emerging markets are characterised by rapid economic development and by huge income and social inequalities. I chose these specific countries to ensure geographical, cultural and historical diversity. I set out to show that, independently of the government party’s ideology, independently of geographical and cultural differences, if similar grassroots political paths are taken this leads to similar social-policy outcomes.

Are the results relevant for the Global North?

Absolutely. Rising poverty and radical movements, ethnic or religious for example, are happening in western countries too. Governments are using welfare benefits to deal with problems and most likely what we see in the Global South will occur in the Global North.

Overall, there is a trend towards increased social assistance, as our global welfare dataset illustrates. Furthermore, different countries that experience similar political needs are learning from each other and are building similar welfare states. So comparisons are really useful to understand the internal dynamics of welfare states too.

Research in this article was funded via the EU’s European Research Council (ERC) and the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA). The article was originally published in Horizon, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine. 

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Shoigu: Moscow and Tehran are reaching a new level of interaction

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Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense

Russian delegation headed by Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu arrived in Tehran for talks with the military leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran (photo).

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran held a formal greeting ceremony for the Russian delegation outside its main building, which was attended by a guard of honour and a military band.

Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff for the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, greeted the Russian Minister of Defence.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has discussed topical issues of Russian–Iranian military cooperation during talks with Chief of General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri on Tuesday.

‘I consider our meeting as another step towards strengthening the strategic partnership between Russia and Iran. Today we have an opportunity to discuss thoroughly topical issues of bilateral military cooperation,’ Sergei Shoigu said.

The head of the Russian defence ministry stressed that ‘Iran is Russia’s strategic partner in the Middle East’.

According to the Russian Defence Minister, Russian-Iranian relations in the military sphere tends to develop actively and positively.

‘Recently, the intensity of meetings has increased significantly, both at the highest level and at the level of the leadership of military departments. We see in this a common view of building a world order based on equality of rights for all participants in international relations,’ the Russian Defence Minister said.

Sergei Shoigu suggested discussing topical issues of bilateral military cooperation mentioning that ‘this is, of course, both Syria and Afghanistan, and current situation in Karabakh’.

In addition, continued the Russian Defence Minister, ‘there are a lot of other issues to be discussed today and tomorrow. These include educational issues, exchange of experience, exchange of delegations, joint naval exercises,’ the Russian Defence Minister said.

‘We are aimed at implementing the entire range of planned activities, despite opposition from the United States and its Western allies. Sanctions pressure on Russia and Iran are demonstrating their futility, while Russian-Iranian interaction is reaching a new level,’ Sergei Shoigu said during discussions with Iranian Minister of Defence and Armed Forces Logistics Mohammad-Reza Gharaei Ashtiani on Wednesday.

At the same time, he expressed readiness ‘for further joint action in the field of strengthening stability and security in the Middle East’.

‘We note with delight,’ the head of the Russian Defence Ministry stated, ‘that the Iranian-Russian communication is progressing particularly intensely today’. According to him, this is largely due to the trusting relations that have developed between the leaders of Russia and Iran.

The Russian Defense Minister stressed that ‘the high dynamics of the meetings confirms the general mood for further strengthening of strategic partnership in the defence sphere and military cooperation’.

He invited his counterpart to discuss a number of issues of mutual interest during the talks.

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Sharp deterioration of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh

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Image source: Azerbaijan Ministry of Defence

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced the beginning of a limited anti-terrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The ministry said the operation aims to ensure the implementation of the trilateral agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia of 2020 and the disarmament and withdrawal of Armenian troops from the territory.

Yerevan said that Baku seeks to “complete the policy of ethnic cleansing” and that Armenia doesn’t have any troops stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia called on the sides to stop the bloodshed and try to work things out diplomatically.

Azerbaijani anti-terrorist measures

On September 19, Azerbaijan announced it was starting to carry out limited anti-terrorist measures in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The country’s Defense Ministry said it plans to ensure the implementation of the trilateral statement of the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia of November 9, 2020, as well as suppress “large-scale acts of provocation in the Karabakh economic region.” The goal of the measures, according to the Azerbaijani ministry, is also the disarmament and withdrawal of Armenian troops from the area and the neutralization of their military infrastructure.

Baku intends to ensure the “restoration of constitutional order in the Republic of Azerbaijan” and the security of civilians, civil servants and Azerbaijani military personnel.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said civilian facilities wouldn’t be targeted, but the positions held by the formations of the Armenian Armed Forces, their long-term firing points, as well as military equipment and structures will be liquidated.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry also said that it had informed the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the leadership of the Turkish-Russian Monitoring Center about its plans. Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov also notified his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler about the situation. Guler said Turkey is standing by Azerbaijan.

Situation on the ground

Baku stated that Armenian forces are firing their artillery guns at the positions of the Azerbaijani army located in the area of the Agdam District. Azerbaijani forces are retaliating.

To evacuate people from the dangerous areas in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan has set up humanitarian corridors and pick-up points on Lachin road and in some other places. The civilian population was urged to stay away from military installations.

Azerbaijan also denied reports circulating in the Armenian segment of global social networks about the shelling of civilian facilities in Karabakh by Azerbaijani units. Baku added that “only legitimate military targets are being put out of commission.”

Armenia’s reaction

Yerevan stated that Armenia doesn’t have any troops stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, while “Azerbaijani official reports and news media continue to make false claims” to the contrary. According to the Armenian Defense Ministry, as of 2:00 p.m., the situation on the country’s borders was relatively stable.

Armenia said it believes that “Azerbaijan has unleashed another large-scale act of aggression against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, seeking to complete the policy of ethnic cleansing.”

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan convened a meeting of the Security Council to discuss the situation. He said the situation on Armenia’s borders is stable and Yerevan does not plan to take rash steps. Also, according to Pashinyan, Russian peacekeepers should respond to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

A protest is taking place outside the Armenian government building in downtown Yerevan. About 500 protesters are blaming the country’s leadership including Pashinyan for policies that have led to the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Statements from Russia

Russia is deeply alarmed by the sharp escalation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said. Moscow calls on the conflicting sides to stop the bloodshed and return to a political and diplomatic settlement.

Despite the escalating situation, Russian peacekeepers continue to carry out their mission. Russia assumes that the security of the peacekeeping contingent “will be unconditionally ensured by all sides.” Zakharova denied allegations that Azerbaijan had warned Russian peacekeepers ahead of today’s “anti-terrorist operation.”

“This has no basis in reality. The information was communicated to the Russian contingent a few minutes before the start of hostilities,” the spokeswoman said.

According to Zakharova, Russia also is currently in talks on the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, including with Azerbaijan. The ministry will make a statement on the results of these talks, she said.

Zakharova also noted that all steps for the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh problem are laid out in the trilateral statements of the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, which were adopted in the period from 2020 to 2022. According to the spokeswoman, Russia and other international mediators have recently begun to establish serious conditions for progress in the peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, including humanitarian aid to the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.

In response to calls by Armenia for Russian peacekeepers and the UN Security Council to take measures to stop hostilities, Zakharova reminded Yerevan in a statement on Telegram that Armenia had officially recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan.

Baku will end its anti-terrorist activities in Nagorno-Karabakh if Armenian fighters lay down their weapons, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said in a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, according to the presidential press service.

“The head of state said that anti-terrorist activities would end if weapons were laid down,” the press service said in a statement.

Aliyev also stated that Armenian units had to disarm. He stressed that civilians and infrastructure facilities weren’t the target of the anti-terrorist activities and the Azerbaijani Armed Forces were only destroying legitimate military targets.

The Azerbaijani president pointed out that his administration had repeatedly invited representatives of Karabakh’s Armenian population to engage in dialogue to discuss reintegration but they had refused. Still, in Aliyev’s words, they were once again invited to dialogue after the local anti-terrorist activities had been launched.

Aliyev noted that Azerbaijan was forced to start the local anti-terrorist activities in the region “to put an end to the provocative and inflammatory actions of the Armenian side.” In this regard, he mentioned that an Armenian sabotage and reconnaissance group had laid mines in Karabakh, which resulted in the death of civilians and law enforcement officers, while Azerbaijani army units had come under mortar and small-arms fire.

“President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that these activities, as well as the move to hold the so-called presidential election in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan on September 9, were the continuation of deliberate provocative steps by Armenia and the so-called separatist entity that it created and supports, aimed against Azerbaijan’s sovereignty,” the statement said.

According to the Azerbaijani presidential press service, Blinken expressed concern about the situation, called for a ceasefire and said that the US supported direct dialogue between Baku and the Armenian population of Karabakh.

At least seven Nagorno-Karabakh civilians died and 35 were injured as a result of military hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Armenpress news agency reported, citing data of Nagorno-Karabakh human rights commissioner Gegham Stepanyan.

“Thirty-five civilians were injured: 13 children, 15 women and seven men. Seven civilians died,” the news agency said. It was earlier reported that the mayor of Martuni, Aznavur Saghyan, was among the dead.

On September 19, tensions flared up again in Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku announced it was launching what it described as “local anti-terrorist measures” and demanded the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the region. Yerevan, in turn, said there were no Armenian forces in Karabakh, calling what was happening “an act of large-scale aggression.” Residents of the Armenian capital took to the streets to protest outside the Armenian government building, blaming the country’s leadership and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the situation.

The command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh reported the evacuation of civilians and called on the parties to the conflict for an immediate ceasefire. The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the conflicting sides to prevent civilian casualties and stop the bloodshed, as well as to return to the implementation of the trilateral agreements between the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Moscow is calling on the sides to return to compliance with the trilateral agreements of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“The most important thing now is to immediately return to compliance with the trilateral agreements signed at the top level in 2020-2022, which lay out all measures for a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue,” the ministry said in a statement, also urging the sides “to stop armed hostilities and to do everything possible in order to protect the population of Nagorno-Karabakh and defend its interests.”

“Due to a rapid escalation of armed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh, we strongly call upon the conflicting sides to immediately stop bloodshed, cease hostilities and prevent casualties among the civilian population,” the ministry said.

“Currently, the Russian peacekeeping force is assisting the civilian population [of Nagorno-Karabakh], including providing medical aid to them, and is dealing with matters of evacuation,” the ministry said.

A full ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh has been reached through the mediation of Russian peacekeepers, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

“A ceasefire agreement between the Azerbaijani side and representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh has been reached through the mediation of the command for Russia’s peacekeeping mission,” the statement reads.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, “the agreement will be implemented in coordination with the command for the Russian peacekeeping contingent.”

The ministry said earlier that Russian peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh continued to perform their mission amid rising tensions, providing all possible assistance to civilians. According to the ministry, a total of 2,261 civilians, including 1,049 children, are currently staying at the peacekeepers’ base camp.

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Biden’s Hanoi trip was overshadowed by revelations of Vietnam’s secret Russian arms deal

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Image source: X @POTUS

The New York Times published the contents of a leaked Vietnamese government document, produced by the Ministry of Finance, revealing a covert plan for the country to procure Russian weapons in contravention of US-led sanctions on Moscow, Zero Hedge notes.

Biden met with the country’s leader Nguyen Phu Trong, and the two formally agreed to upgrade strategic ties between the US and Vietnam. But the NYT report demonstrates that “even as the United States and Vietnam have nurtured their relationship over recent months, Hanoi is making clandestine plans to buy an arsenal of weapons from Russia.”

The revelation of the document strongly suggests that any agreements reached in Hanoi which the Biden White House is now celebrating as successful are likely to be fleeting and without much depth in the near and long-term.

According to details of the document’s contents:

“The Ministry of Finance document, which is dated March 2023 and whose contents have been verified by former and current Vietnamese officials, lays out how Vietnam proposes to modernize its military by secretly paying for defense purchases through transfers at a joint Vietnamese and Russian oil venture in Siberia.

Signed by a Vietnamese deputy finance minister, the document notes that Vietnam is negotiating a new arms deal with Russia that would “strengthen strategic trust” at a time when “Russia is being embargoed by Western countries in all aspects.”

So once again, global south and non-aligned countries appear to be sticking with Russia, no matter the West’s clearly futile efforts to isolate it on the world stage.

But the report alludes to another trend – that of Western countries threatening those smaller nations that step out of line in pursuing defense or strong trade ties with Russia: “Yet by developing its secret plan to pay for Russian defense equipment, Vietnam is stepping into the center of a larger security contest that is steeped both in Cold War politics and the hot war of the moment, in Ukraine,” NYT underscores.

The leaked document at one point reads: “Our party and state still identify Russia as the most important strategic partner in defense and security.”

Vietnam has of course historically relied heavily on Russia for weapons, and by all appearances will continue to do so, despite the longtime efforts of Washington to sway the southeast Asian country to a more westward trajectory. When it comes in Russian exports in general, more broadly in the geopolitical neighborhood there seems an increasing trend of individual countries like Vietnam saying, “But everyone’s doing it”.

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