Does China’s peace strategy also include Taiwan? Yes, but the US has to adapt to “Chinese-style restraint”.
Farewell to McCarthy, Tsai Ing-wen returned to Taiwan from the US, and Beijing immediately launches a three-day military drills around the island. This is the second large-scale targeted military countermeasure. The last time it happened after Pelosi visited Taiwan.
It was expected that China would show restraint this time, but the result was surprising.
Taiwan’s prediction of the event was completely wrong. The ruling DPP originally thought that the meeting between Tsai and McCarthy would be less humiliating for China if it was held in the US, so there won’t be another military drills around the island —— which is the main reason why Taiwan took the initiative to move the meeting to the US —— But Beijing is apparently ungrateful, and what Xi wants to say is that the focus is not on the “place” but on the “meeting”.
The U.S. media’s prediction of this event was also wrong, as they believed that Beijing was hosting French President Macron and European Commission President Von der Leyen, Choosing this time to intensify military tensions would embarrass the two European dignitaries and damage Sino-European relations (Note 1). In addition, the Brazilian President Lula will also visit China. It is generally predicted that China will display a charm offensive during this period to create a peaceful atmosphere.
However, Beijing obviously does not want the world to misunderstand China’s peace appeal . “It is just wishful thinking to expect China to compromise on the Taiwan issue. Anyone who does so will only lift a stone and smash his own feet.”, Xi said this directly to von der Leyen and to the West.
China’s appeal for peace does not mean compromise on Taiwan, Taiwan is the core of China’s core interests. If the West tries to test this bottom line, China will not hesitate to show its determination to defend its sovereignty, even if its specific actions will damage Beijing’s relationship with the West.
In other words, avoiding the internationalization of the Taiwan issue is the foundation and forbidden zone of China’s diplomacy.
Due to the current eagerness of the Biden administration to engage with Beijing (Note 2), Tsai Ing-wen’s visit was received with cold reception.The White House banned any federal official from contacting Tsai, minimizing her public remarks. The US ruling party uses this to portray the scene as an opposition party event, or even McCarthy’s personal behavior, rather than the official position of the US, in order to show Washington’s restraint, but there is a prerequisite for such restraint to be understood by the Chinese side: mutual trust between the US and China.
At present, there is no basis for mutual trust between the US and China on the Taiwan issue, as the Biden administration tends to give Beijing empty promises on the one hand ,and on the other hand actually promotes Taiwan-US relations. Words and actions are grossly disproportionate, leading to zero trust. From Beijing’s perspective, this is another American “sausage tactics” strategy , two steps forward and one step back, Thus, the proportional “restraint” that China reported to the US was not what the US expected. Perhaps, no missiles flew over Taiwan this time, which is the proportional restraint.
Washington is well aware that manipulating the Taiwan issue is tantamount to giving Beijing a license to overreact and undermine the US, so McCarthy apparently made a concession by canceling his visit to Taiwan and reiterating the US “one-China policy” in front of Tsai. In addition, the Republican Party has also restrained its desire to perform, only showing a minimum of support without losing its decency, but the consequences still exceeded expectations.
Is Beijing’s toughness on Taiwan contradictory to its peaceful appeal? Actually, they are not. The US can interpret it in this way —— China’s “thin-skinned diplomacy” and “overreaction” are intended to highlight the belligerence of the US and contrast China’s peaceful image. Every time the US crosses the border, it is helping China to occupy the moral high ground and offset the trend of internationalization of the Taiwan issue.
Washington will find that the more it manipulates the Taiwan issue, the more China’s neighbors will resent the US, and China’s military response will become necessary in the hope of regional peace.
ASEAN and India are on the rise and definitely do not want to see a regional war. Japan, as a loyal ally , is following the wishes of the US to expand its military, but this does not mean that they are willing to get involved in Taiwan war(Note 3). This is why Beijing, on the one hand, calls for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and on the other hand, implements a grey zone strategy , intending to recover Taiwan slowly and minimize possible resistance from its neighbors.
The US arming Taiwan has given Beijing an excuse and leverage to accelerate unification.
China is very different from Russia, the former will patiently steer the situation towards a direction that benefits itself , until it is convinced that the worst possible consequences will not hinder China’s revival, then it will show its hand.
Ironically, the “Neocons” portrayed Taiwan as the Ukraine of East Asia, gave China a “peace megaphone” to call on its neighbors to raise the anti-war banner, provide China to “overreact” under this banner to expand military deployments.
For Beijing, the Neocons within the US are both a curse and a grace.
Is a conflict between China and the US inevitable over the Taiwan issue? Precisely, for the US, the question is how to direct the inevitable conflict to benefit the US, for China, the question is how to eliminate this idea of the US.
Beijing believes that only if the US cannot effectively unite the West to weaken China on the Taiwan issue, then Washington will abandon the idea of solving the Taiwan issue through conflict and instead seek a way to solve the problem peacefully through deals.
In order to achieve this goal, a clear move towards a multipolar world is a necessary condition, in which the autonomy of Europe is crucial, while the autonomy of other regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America serve as models for Europe to follow.
Once multipolarity becomes an irreversible trend, the U.S. will lack sufficient allies to manipulate the Taiwan Strait conflict.
Of course, this process will not be smooth, and there will inevitably be many tense situations during the period. As for which side effectively advances its goals through the crisis, the observation point is which side has created an irreversible “new normal”.
What goals did Beijing use this meeting between Tsai Ing-wen and McCarthy to advance? The “United Sword” military drill is not new, because similar military drills have become the norm. The real novelty this time is the “combat readiness patrol” , a new marine inspection operations (note 4) , which lasts for 3 days .
The southeastern provinces of China conducted “on-site inspections” of cargo ships and engineering ships in the northern and central of the Taiwan Strait “to ensure the safety of the ships’ navigation”, This is a non-military act intended to erase Taiwan’s sovereignty.
This means that Beijing is seeking to establish a non-military new normal to demonstrate its sovereignty. The three-day operation is just one example, and sure, there will be other “sovereign override” actions in the future.
Yes, this is grey zone strategy, yes, this is the Chinese version of “sausage tactics”, and yes, there is nothing the US can do about it.
Although former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou was visiting China during Tsai’s “transit” to the US and sang a peace aria there, leading many Taiwanese elite to believe that Beijing would not talk about peace on the one hand and increasing its deterrence on the other, well, they also misjudged the content of China’s peace strategy, the message Xi wants to convey is that peace and trust should not be taken for granted, but must be earned.
Beijing no longer tolerates Washington and Taipei playing double tactics towards China, using peaceful gestures to cover up provocative actions in order to actually advance the goal of Taiwan independence.
The Taiwan election in 2024 does not limit Beijing’s willingness to escalate military threats. Rather than temporarily forbearance, Beijing now believes that moderate tension will make the Taiwanese people cherish the current peace and oppose all hostile gestures.
If you take two steps forward, you must take two steps back, Beijing’s countermeasures that exceeded expectations this time are warning McCarthy and Biden administrations that Taiwan is China’s bottom line, and not a single step should be crossed. The definition of “restraint” is up to China.
There are already restrained voices in the US (Note 5), demanding to stop the radical remarks on China, wise people of America have realized that over-acting will cause unbearable consequences, as China has rejected the US desire to abandon the existing guardrails (The Three U.S.-China Communiques) and try to create a new one by limiting communication (Note 6). A new guardrail would mean a Chinese compromise on Taiwan, which is impossible.
The Biden administration must ask itself, who has successfully established an irreversible new normal ? China or the US? If the answer is not “the US,” then it should stop manipulating the Taiwan issue, as this is a risky game.
Note 2：https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/05/china-contact-united-states-00090495
Note 3：https://www.voanews.com/a/despite-tough-words-japan-might-not-enter-a-taiwan-war/6791868.html
Note 5：https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/03/lower-rhetoric-china-says-milley/384693/.
