The Saudi-Iranian agreement with Chinese sponsorship was not a surprising event for those who follow and read calmly and wisely what is written and published about the relationship between the two countries, and the statements issued by officials of many countries.
Likewise, those who follow the changes in the international scene in general, and in the Middle East region in particular, must conclude that the two countries were moving in this direction.
With the developments in the Ukrainian war, there have been changes in international positions, especially the US position, which was trying in every possible way to secure an increase in oil production and sell it to Europe. This made President Biden backtrack on his electoral promises not to deal with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in light of the case of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and he went to the kingdom in an attempt to ask it to increase production.
Increasing oil production and exporting it necessarily means that the Gulf region is a safe area, meaning that there is no war with Iran.
During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia at the end of 2022, there was talk of the possibility of Iranian President joining the Gulf Chinese summit, but that did not happen at the time.
Also, the American Foreign Policy newspaper published a report titled “Why Saudi Arabia does not want the Iranian regime to fall” on January 27, 2023, about two months before the announcement of the agreement. The report talked about a change in the Saudi strategy towards Tehran and that the kingdom now believes that the survival of the Iranian regime is less costly than its collapse, and that dealing with Iran in its current form is better for the kingdom than working to overthrow it.
Then came the state visit by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Beijing in February 2023, which crowned Chinese efforts and gave them momentum to continue sponsoring this reconciliation.
The Chinese Motivations:
Today, China is more capable than ever before of playing regional and international roles, especially after President Xi Jinping consolidated his domestic power. This included closing the COVID-19 file and returning life to normal in China, turning the production wheel, and expecting a growth rate of more than 5% for the current year 2023.
Also, President Xi Jinping ended the party and election deadlines, holding the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2022, and electing Xi as the General Secretary of the Central Committee.
In March 2023, the joint meeting of the Chinese National People’s Congress was held, and President Xi was unanimously elected for a third presidential term, as well as other government members. From here, President Xi began to devote himself to foreign affairs, working to return China to the international stage, and as a peacekeeper in the world, Beijing has presented several initiatives, including an initiative to maintain global security, an initiative to solve the crisis in Ukraine, and an initiative that was announced to have succeeded, which is the initiative to resolve the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In the future, there will be a range of Chinese initiatives aimed at solving some international issues, particularly the Palestinian issue, which is of great interest to the Chinese government.
Perhaps the most important reasons behind this Chinese engagement and desire to achieve peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran are:
- The large economic interests between China and both Saudi Arabia and Iran. Massive economic agreements were signed with Saudi Arabia during the Chinese President’s visit, while China signed a strategic agreement with Tehran for a period of 25 years.
- Ensuring the continued flow of oil from the Middle East, which guarantees the smooth operation of production in China.
- China’s desire to fill the void in the Middle East after the US withdrawal from the region. Although Beijing benefited from US presence in the area, as the United States provides security and stability in the region, it ensured the flow of oil to China without any burdens on Beijing.
- China’s desire to present itself as a peacekeeper in the world, relying on its historical reputation where it has no colonial history.
- China’s pursuit of further strategic partnerships with active countries in the world, especially Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, to counter US threats against China.
- China’s desire to strengthen its soft power and refute Western accusations of oppression against its Muslim Uighur population by seeking to bring together the two largest Islamic countries, despite their sectarian differences. Here, we note a very important point: there are ten Muslim ethnic groups in China, so why have we only heard about the Uighurs’ oppression? Therefore, the issue is not related to the Chinese government’s position on Islam, as the West claims, but rather to its dealings with a separatist group loyal to Turkey (Turkestan).
This marks the announcement of a new phase in China’s foreign policy, which is focused on engagement in international issues and affairs.
Why did Beijing succeed in its efforts to reconcile between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Beijing’s success in its efforts to resolve the conflict between the two countries can be attributed to several factors, including:
- Beijing’s precise calculations and its conviction that there is a significant opportunity for a settlement between the two countries. Otherwise, China would not have become involved in the mediation, particularly as it does not want to be held responsible for any political failures.
- China’s understanding of the nature of the dispute between the two countries as a “political dispute with religious cover” rather than the other way around. The religious factor plays a role as a tool for mobilizing the masses and rallying them around official positions.
- China’s status as an accepted state by both parties to the conflict, and its certain credibility earned through its foreign policy during the past decades.
- The American approval of the principle of reconciliation between the two countries to ensure stability in the Middle East and, consequently, to guarantee the continued flow of energy resources to Europe and the world as an alternative to Russian oil and gas.
