The Ukrainian-Russian crisis constituted the most obvious event in the paths of change in the balances of the map of the international balance of power, and represented a major challenge to the hegemony of the United States of America over the international system. Therefore, many countries, led by Saudi Arabia, worked to redraw its foreign policy in light of the effects of the Ukrainian-Russian crisis. On the relations between the United States of America on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. In my belief, the completion of the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation process under the supervision and sponsorship of China is tantamount to Chinese involvement in the security aspect of the region, in addition to being a political step in the first place to take care of China’s economic interests in the Middle East region. Given that Saudi Arabia’s openness to China allowed Beijing to strengthen its presence in the Middle East region, which “Israel” realizes the extent of its danger, because China did not enter the Middle East through the Israeli gate according to the plans of the military leaders in Tel Aviv, but it strengthened Chinese influence this time in the region. It came from the Iranian gate through its rapprochement with Saudi Arabia under Chinese auspices, especially with Israel realizing the importance of those countries in the Chinese “Belt and Road” strategy, and this would affect the US national security strategy and the higher interests of the Hebrew state.
With the emergence of strong Chinese-Russian rapprochement, and what the United States of America describes as Chinese threats to its spheres of influence, allies and regional partners neighboring China in the East Asian region, and the expansion of Beijing’s economy to the borders of the Gulf states, the trip of Chinese President “Xi Jinping” to Saudi Arabia in December 2022 represented a strong competitive message with the United States of America for the new Chinese involvement in the region, security and political, which was after the completion of the reconciliation process between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Beijing also gave the green light to the government of Iranian President “Ibrahim Raisi” to make some concessions with the international community for the success of the process of rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, through Iran’s agreement to resume the prisoner exchange process between it and Washington through Qatari and Omani mediation. Iran is also anticipating the visit of the Omani Sultan “Haitham bin Tariq”, as a good mediator between Iran and the West.
The announcement of the Saudi-Iranian agreement under the auspices of China coincided with the unanimous re-election of Chinese President “Xi Jinping” to a third five-year term as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the People’s Republic of China, in the meetings of the two sessions or sessions of “Lianghui” held in the month of March every year with the participation of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Council, with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call at the same time to build an international community with a common future and one destiny for all mankind. Which makes the Saudi agreement with Iran an announcement of the new role that China will play as a major actor in shaping the shape of the new world order and thus transforming it towards a multipolar international system. Only three days before the announcement of the agreement, the Chinese Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, confirmed that:
“China will build broad-based partnerships and advance a new type of international relations”
This is what happened after the success of the Chinese mediation efforts in completing the reconciliation process between the Saudis and the Iranians. In addition to other statements made by Chinese Foreign Minister “Qin Gang” on Tuesday, March 7, 2023, that:
“China will work to promote greater democracy in international relations, and make global governance more just and equitable”
This Saudi-Iranian reconciliation comes as a result of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi’s recent visit to Beijing, which immediately after that appeared to be indications of that breakthrough in the field of resuming relations between the Saudi and Iranian sides, through a number of announced talks conducted by the Secretary-General of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council “Ali Shamkhani” to follow up Visit agreements and intensive talks with the Saudi side. Then, the joint tripartite statement issued by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China was issued following negotiations hosted by China, in a step that may entail major regional diplomatic changes. And lead to a reduction of tension in the region after the resumption of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic relations and the agreement to reopen their embassies and representations within a maximum period of two months. In addition to agreeing to activate the security cooperation agreement between them and the general agreement for cooperation in the field of economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports and youth. It is expected that this Saudi-Iranian agreement will contribute to easing tension in the region, strengthening the pillars of stability, preserving the capabilities of Arab national security, and the aspirations of the peoples of the region for prosperity, development and stability.
In my personal belief and according to my perception, the success of the Beijing government through the mediation efforts of “Fang Yi”, a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Communist Party, head of the Bureau of the Central Committee of the Party’s Foreign Affairs, and a member of the Council of Government of the Republic of China of the People’s Republic of China, is a real Chinese security involvement in the affairs of the region, especially since the Beijing government’s achievement of the reconciliation file between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia, as they are the two most prominent regional powers in the Gulf region, and they are on opposite sides in most regional files, most notably the conflict in Yemen, where Riyadh leads a military coalition in support of the internationally recognized government in Yemen, and accuses Tehran of With the support of the Houthi rebels, who control large areas in the north of the country, most notably Sanaa. Likewise, Saudi Arabia expresses concern about Iran’s growing regional influence and accuses it of “interfering” in the affairs of a number of Arab countries, such as: (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon). Therefore, this agreement came in order for this agreement to constitute a positive step on the path to resolving differences and ending regional conflicts through dialogue and diplomatic means. It contributes to supporting security, peace and stability, and adopting diplomacy in settling regional and international disputes in the region. The importance of this step comes in order to restore stability in the Arab region, and to strive to resolve the outstanding crises between Iran and the Arab Gulf region.
According to my analysis, the announcement of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, under Chinese auspices, is in the interest of the security of the entire region, due to its importance in restoring normal relations between the countries of the region, so that the region and the Arab Gulf states can regain their lost security as a result of foreign interventions, especially the American and Israeli interventions. As these American interventions worked during the last period to exploit those regional differences between the Gulf and Iran, and took the “Iranian scarecrow” as a paving way to stir up conflicts and encourage the operations of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Therefore, the step to complete the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation comes as a solution to the problem of this conflict that has been raging between its parties for several years. Also, this agreement would contribute to strengthening Arab-Islamic solidarity, which would reflect positively on the Arab and Islamic countries and their peoples. Accordingly, a new page of diplomatic relations will begin between its parties, which will reflect on the integration of relations between the two sides, and will give a qualitative impetus to the cooperation of the countries of the region, with the aim of a framework that achieves the aspirations of all parties to launch a new phase, and consolidate the concepts of good neighborliness and starting from a common ground to build a more stable future for all.
The security importance of achieving the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation file for China, with the aim of securing the corridors of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative at sea and strategically through the region of corridors and sea and water straits, such as the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab and the Gulf of Aden, in addition to China’s urgent need to reduce the severity of the raging conflicts in the region, especially in Yemen. Therefore, this Saudi-Iranian agreement is in the interest of the Chinese side, security and economic, in addition to its importance to its Iranian ally, given its need to secure its back and its strategic depth, especially in the event that “Israel” decides alone or jointly with the United States of America to launch a military strike against it. It is known that “Israel” was and is still seeking to achieve this goal by all available means, and has recently succeeded in achieving some important steps on this path, including the establishment of strong cooperation relations, including security aspects as well, with some Arab countries neighboring Iran, especially the UAE and Bahrain through What is known as the Abrahamic Peace Accords. Here, it is difficult for the Israeli plan to confront Iran to be completed, or to have a reasonable chance of success, without effective Saudi participation.
China and Iran, along with Russia, are also anticipating all possibilities arising from the failure of the Vienna negotiations, which are currently frozen. In this case, it is expected that the sanctions will also be tightened and the blockade imposed around them will be tightened, including the possibility that the United States of America will tip the scales of the military option in Moser and confront it. There is no doubt that the interest of China and Iran, especially in those tense regional and international atmospheres, lies in rapprochement with Saudi Arabia so as not to engage in any regional and international schemes hostile to Iran, and that is through the serious Chinese-Iranian endeavor to improve relations with it as much as possible and by all possible means.
Therefore, it can be said that it is in the interest of China and its Iranian ally at the present time to bring about a Saudi rapprochement with Iran in order to ensure that the Saudi side is neutralized in the face of any Israeli and American attempts to launch a war against Iran. Hence the Israeli and American belief that the new Saudi foreign policy does not serve the strategic interest of the United States of America and Israel’s agenda in the region. Also, on the Israeli and American side, this Saudi-Iranian agreement, according to the same Israeli analyzes, is a catastrophic failure of Israeli foreign policy and a collapse of the regional security wall that the Israelis have tried to build against Iran over the past several years. The Saudi-Iranian agreement will also disrupt the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister “Benjamin Netanyahu” to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia. Perhaps it will complicate his task in this context. Israel will also feel more isolated if it decides to carry out a unilateral military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. Even the Israeli fear has also come from the UAE’s opposition to Israel’s attack on Tehran, which has marked its relations with Israel, especially after the UAE sought to calm tensions with Iran as well in support of the Saudi position.
There are a number of countries on the line of contact close to Tehran in the region, which will be positively affected by the declared rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, following some pro-Tehran policies, led by Yemen represented by the Houthi group, and Syria with the proximity of the Iranian-backed regime of President Bashar al-Assad. As well as Lebanon, which is in crisis politically and economically in light of the strong influence of the Hezbollah group and its Secretary-General, “Hassan Nasrallah”, and also the state of Iraq is the closest arena for the Iranian incursion through the popular crowd and other Shiite political parties. Therefore, the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement remains sufficient to get everyone out of this crisis. This rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, after the resumption of relations between them, will undoubtedly lead to Iran putting pressure on the Houthi group in Yemen to stop any escalation – as it was in the past – in the face of Saudi Arabia, and it will also inevitably lead to reducing any arms shipments to the Houthis and perhaps helping to end the war in Yemen. Completely, and this is what was confirmed by the spokesman for the Houthi group in Yemen “Mohammed Abdel Salam”, by stressing that:
“The region needs the return of normal relations between its countries”
There is also a Chinese-Iranian security interest in completing the reconciliation process with Saudi Arabia, out of fear that the ongoing war on the Ukrainian scene might enter a new phase of escalation that would lead to more polarization between Russia and its allies, and between the United States and its allies, on the other hand. Especially with the many changes taking place in international diplomacy after the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the alignment of most of the international alliances, western ones, against Russia, and eastern and middle eastern alliances that distanced themselves to some extent from the conflict by maintaining a kind of balance between the West and the East. Therefore, Russia’s congratulations came in the words of its Deputy Foreign Minister “Mikhail Bogdanov” to the three Iranian, Saudi and Chinese parties for reaching an agreement to restore relations between Riyadh and Tehran, stating that:
“it is in line with the Russian initiatives aimed at establishing a security system in the Gulf region, which is of exceptional importance at the global economic level”
And the last analysis remains in this context, from the Western fear of expanding the Chinese geopolitical footprint in the backyard of the United States of America in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf region following this Saudi-Iranian agreement, which the Beijing government considers as a major station in implementing the strategy of heading east towards the Middle East and the Gulf. The Arab regime that the Chinese regime is adopting abroad at the present time to impede the American influence and presence there. It is expected that the return of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran will open broader horizons for broader regional rapprochement, and discussion of outstanding and thorny files, starting with Lebanon, passing through Yemen, and ending with Syria.
