Foreign ministers from the world’s largest economies meet in New Delhi this week for the G20 summit.
The G20 (or Group of Twenty) is a forum of 19 countries and the European Union and represents 85% of global GDP, 75% of global trade and two-thirds of the world’s population.
The host – India – is keen to discuss international issues of regional importance, like climate change and international development. But talks threaten to be dominated by the conflict in Ukraine and India’s refusal to take a definitive stance against Russia’s invasion.
Delegates of the European Union have said they will judge the success of the meeting on what the G20 could do to end the conflict.
In contrast, Russia has said it would use the meeting to blame the US and NATO for the political and economic issues facing the world since the invasion.
Tensions are high. United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken told journalists last week that he has “no plans” to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
This puts India in an awkward position.
Since the invasion of Ukraine last year, it as been reluctant to condemn Russia.
Last month, India abstained from a vote in the United Nations General Assembly to condemn Russia’s invasion and calling for the withdrawal of troops and a halt to the fighting.
This wasn’t the first time. In March and October last year, India abstained from another two votes condemning the invasion.
All three votes were overwhelmingly backed by UN member states.
Prime Minister Modi has steadfastly refused to assign blame for the invasion, instead stating that it was “no time for war”.
India has also maintained strong ties with Moscow.
Prime Minister Modi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin last September, publicly stating their friendship was “unbreakable” and “steady and time-tested”.
India has also been accused of helping Russia sidestep sanctions by buying its oil, albeit at discounted rates.
In December, India imported 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude oil, 33 times more than a year earlier. The country’s share of Russian oil also rose to 28% in January, an increase from 0.2% before the invasion.
Russia also continues to be India’s largest dealer of arms, reportedly supplying $13 billion in weapons over the past 5 years.
India’s difficult position was evident on Saturday at the G20 finance ministers meeting in Bangaluru.
The host was reluctant to raise the issue of Ukraine while western countries refused to support any official statement unless it included a condemnation of the invasion.
The result was an underwhelming statement that “most members” condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed that it was causing immense human suffering.
India is of course free to deal with whomever it likes. But this doesn’t make it immune from criticism.
Put simply, you either condemn illegal aggression or you don’t.
Despite Russia’s claims to the contrary, the invasion is illegal under international law and there have been allegations of war crimes committed by Russian forces against Ukrainian civilians.
India’s position may also be counterproductive.
It reveals a sharp divergence between India and the US and creates doubt over the country’s respect for international law.
It may also threaten its strategic interests.
India is also reliant on US support for opposing Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. It’s refusal to condemn what is a clear-cut case of unprovoked aggression puts this relationship at risk.
With US-China relations already tense due to allegations China is about to provide Russia with military aid, India may find that the US is in no mood for a neutrality.
India also has territorial disputes with both Pakistan and China in Kashmir and Himal-Pradesh. India may get little sympathy from the west in these disputes if it does not condemn illegal wars of conquest elsewhere.
Blinken’s statement that “China can’t have it both ways” may be equally true of India.
Criticising Russia for its illegal invasion may also simply be the right thing to do.
The unprovoked invasion has left much of Ukraine in ruin. The UN reports that 7,199 civilians have been killed and 11,765 injured. There are also approximately 8 million Ukrainian refugees displaced across Europe, 20% of the population, with over 5 million internally displaced within Ukraine.
If Russia is supported – either formally or informally – and aggression left unpunished – it also puts the international rule of law at risk and threatens conflicts in the future.
The G20 then looms are a showdown between the west and Russia, with India stuck in the middle.
India is unlikely to change its position on Russia anytime soon. But pressure from the US and its allies may give it pause for thought.
With security in the Indo-Pacific an increasing concern, supporting international law over politics might end up being in India’s long-term interests.
