The Invasion of Russia to Ukraine in February 2022 is predicted to end quickly, and Russia will come out victorious. However, surprisingly Ukraine has been able to survive until now, and some analysts say that it is only a matter of time before Ukraine wins the war.
Putin wants to bring Russia back to the era of both Lenin and Stalin. Putin builds that narrative at the moment Russia is under existential threat from the expansion of NATO. Putin even said that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was “The breakup of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century.” Therefore, the rebuilding of the Soviet Union must be carried out through the invasion of Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and Ukraine in 2022. Putin’s irrational ambitions lead to mutual destruction for the people of Russia and Ukraine.
While Ukraine received enormous assistance from the United States (US) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the form of weapons and humanitarian assistance. Russia appears to have had to fend for itself, even though Iran had secretly supplied Russia with drones before the war started. However, the biggest support that Russia hopes for is of course from its closest ally, China.
China, which has been considered a close ally of Russia, seems to be trying to be pragmatic in this war. China has indeed shown its support for Russia, by stating that this war was caused by NATO moving eastward. In fact, at the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, China voted to abstain along with 35 other countries. Only four countries provided support for Russia, namely Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Nicaragua.
On the other hand, China is also aware of its position. Russia is not as strong as before, the influence of Russia in the last two decades has continued to decline both in the economic, military, and diplomatic sectors. China and RelationsRussia However, things are not running in balance, Russia occupies the tenth position as China’s trading partner, while China is Russia’s main trading partner. Then, the arms trade which became one of the main strengths of Russia continues to erode, there has been a decline in arms exports by 24% in the past five years (2016-2021).
Full support for war with Russia, in the end, will only harm China’s national interests. China will be increasingly shunned by the European Union (EU), which is its second-largest trading partner, then the international coalition led by the US to bring down China will grow stronger. And of course, the plan to establish a new world order will be destroyed.
US support and position
In this war The US plays an important role, according to reports from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the US has provided $50 billion worth of aid to Ukraine in the form of military, financial, and humanitarian support. But on the other hand, policymakers in the US still see China as the biggest threat. Even This decision was taken when Russia invaded Ukraine. The US seems aware that the impact of this war is only temporary. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further strengthens the notion that China will do the same to Taiwan. President Xi, who clearly stated that he would carry out reunification, continued to provide indications by increasing military spending on patrols in Taiwan.
If we look back at history, the US was amazingly able to defeat every threat that was present, at the end of the first World War the rise of the Nazis and Japanese Imperialists could be destroyed simultaneously, then during the Cold War, the US was able to defeat the Soviet Union through policies such as deterrence and containment. And lastly, the rise of Islamic terrorist groups can be mitigated even if at a great cost. Will the same thing happen?
Change in policy direction Germany and NATO
So far, Germany has been trying to be careful seeing acts of aggressionRussia. This policy is based on Germany’s need for cheap energy offered by Russia. However, surprisingly Chancellor Olaf Scholz changed German foreign policy. Even though at the beginning of the war Olaf tried to hold back, pressure from many parties, as well as the desire to break free from the shackles of Russian energy made Olaf change direction by providing full assistance to Ukraine. Germany is the second largest donor country after the US, Germany is also increasingly showing its commitment by providing the IRIS-T air defense system, and the formidable Leopard tank.
Later, this war provided the perfect momentum for NATO to show its commitment as a protector of Europe. This war is also increasingly showing how they face Russia which has become a predator for the surrounding countries. This prompted Sweden and Finland, which so far have remained neutral, to openly say that they will join NATO shortly. However, what must be understood is that the impact of joining Sweden and Finland will lead to a bigger conflict in the future due to fearRussia which is getting hotter.
Taiwan’s important lesson
What happened to Ukraine is an important lesson for Taiwan. Taiwan, which is under the shadow of a Chinese invasion, must be able to prepare well. Under President Tsai Ing-Wen, Taiwan’s military continued to be improved, Taiwan did 25 times the military package during the Trump administration for a total of $16.6 billion. The commitment between the two countries continues to this day.
Many analysts think that, if Taiwan is attacked then the world will react similarly to what happened with Ukraine. This is based on Taiwan’s position as the world’s largest supplier of semiconductors. Semiconductors are so important because they are part of military weapons, gadgets, and coffee machines.
However, will the West dare to assist Taiwan? China’s position is very different from Russia’s, China is the country with the largest economy after the US if you reflect on Australia’s actions which criticized China and led to economic sanctions. These sanctions hit the Australian economy hard enough and gave a picture to the world that should never interfere with China’s interests.
On the other hand, this war gives Xi an overview of how China should act toward Taiwan. Putin’s miscalculations and overconfidence that he will win the war in a short time became an important lesson for Xi. Xi must be able to prepare perfectly for tactics, weaponry, and qualified military, for the economic impact that will arise later. In the end, this raises a crucial question regarding when this invasion will be carried out.
Transformation in many places
Lastly, this war has again reminded the world that there will always be major threats, and the best way to deal with them is to prepare yourself. From the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there will be a 1.9% increase in arms sales in 2022. Even though there are problems in the arms supply chain due to the war in Ukraine. The increase in arms sales is in line with the trend of increasing defense budgets, Germany and Japan which have been holding back surprisingly increased and changed their national defense strategy. If this trend continues the arms race cannot be avoided and it is only a matter of time before a bigger war.