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Right to Work: Domestic Worker’s Protection as Vulnerable Group

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The ILO defines domestic workers as those who work in private homes and for employers. These jobs include cleaning, cooking, washing and ironing clothes, caring for family members, children, elderly or sick, gardening, looking after the house, driving for the family, and even caring for pets. Domestic workers are classified as a type of informal work. The relationship between employers and workers is a special relationship outside of labour regulations in general. The ILO estimates the number of domestic workers globally to be 76 million people and 76% of them are women.[1] From the Indonesian view, the number of domestic workers recorded is 2.6 million people and 90% of them are women.[2] There are many factors make women take steps to become domestic workers, one of which is unsupportive economic and environmental factors. In the stigma that develops in society, domestic work is a woman’s responsibility and is considered ‘unreal’ work. Therefore, the protection mechanism of domestic workers needs to be better done and is very different from the formal working relationship.

It is marked by the lack of a state regulating domestic workers’ protection. The ILO report shows that 61.5% of domestic workers in the Asia and Pacific region are excluded from the scope of national labour legislation, with 84.3% being in the informal employment sector including Indonesia.[3] Although on the International level, it has explicitly been regulated in the ILO Convention No. 189, the Domestic Workers Convention, but many countries still need to ratify it. The absence of national regulations that regulate and protect domestic workers has caused many problems. The problems that arise due to the lack of protection for domestic workers are the absence of social security, health insurance, inhumane working hours, gender discrimination, heavy workload, criminal offense, and sexual harassment. Globally, 81% of domestic workers do not receive social and labour protection.[4] Then, the ILO noted that out of 70 countries, 40% do not have a leave guarantee mechanism for domestic workers.[5]  So that domestic workers are classified as vulnerable groups that must be given protection. One form of the lack of protection for domestic workers is that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the impact of unilateral termination of work for domestic workers without severance pay. This condition is also the reason why employers do not pay domestic worker’s wages due to the Covid-19 pandemic which has resulted in a decline in their income and economic cycle.

Within the framework of international law, protecting domestic workers is the state’s responsibility. It is in line with the responsibilities mandated by international conventions. The state’s commitment to protecting domestic workers can be seen from the participation of states binding themselves to the Convention with instruments of ratification. This responsibility is the protection of the right to work for domestic workers. The right to work is one of the fundamental rights of every human being guaranteed by Article 23 paragraph (1) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR). Articles in the UDHR are a mandate to countries to be used as guidelines in the enforcement of human rights. Then a more comprehensive norm regarding the right to work is set out in Article 6 of The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) which reads, “The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right to work, which includes the right of everyone to the opportunity to gain his living by work which he freely chooses or accepts,  and will take appropriate steps to safeguard this right”.

Furthermore, as an organization engaged in labour, the ILO regulates the protection of domestic workers in conducting labour relations in the ILO Convention No. 189, Domestic Workers Convention globally. The Convention contains fundamental principles and requires states to make work feasible for domestic workers. The Convention also establishes minimum labour standards for domestic workers to create the protection of human rights and decent work.

The right to work is essential because it forms an inseparable part of other rights. Other rights are the assessment of decent work for everyone, in this case, a domestic worker. Decent work is also one of the goals that will be achieved globally through the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) in number 8, namely, Decent Work and Economic Growth. Addressing the deficit of decent work in informal employment, as part of a broader effort towards economic formalization, is a priority for global progress. The fundamental rights that describe decent work in ILO Convention No. 189 Domestic Workers Convention are as follows:

Protection of human rights for all domestic workers

The protection of human rights for domestic workers is contained in the Preamble and Article 3 of the Convention. This protection contains guarantees for the elimination of forced labour, discrimination, the elimination of child labour, protection from all forms of abuse and violence, and meets the sense of justice for domestic workers. It is the point of the Convention because there are many violations of the human rights of domestic workers by their employers.

Conditions of working hours and leave

This Convention provides for reasonable working hours for domestic workers to work contained in Article 10 of the Convention. The rest period for domestic workers to work is at least 24 hours of work per week. There are follow-up rules regarding guarantees for overtime compensation, daily and weekly rest periods, and paid annual leave. It is essential to manage because many domestic workers are overworked in their workload and time.

Modalities of Payment

The rise of domestic workers whom their employers do not pay makes regulating payment modalities essential. Domestic workers must receive wages in cash and directly at one month intervals. The provisions of checks and transfers can be further regulated in the country’s national legislation under Article 12 of this Convention.

Social security Protection

Employers who employ domestic workers are required to provide a safe and healthy work environment and ensure the safety and health of workers. Furthermore, social security protection for domestic workers must be provided so that in difficult conditions and need of social security protection, it has been prepared in advance. Social security is closely related to the right to health. At this time, health and social security for domestic workers are not heeded by the employer, so it is common for domestic workers to get sick and have work accidents without social security coverage.

Dispute resolution, complaints, and enforcement

Article 17 of the Convention provides adequate access to courts, tribunals or other dispute resolution mechanisms, including easily accessible grievance mechanisms. Measures should be held to ensure compliance with national legislation to protect domestic workers, including labour inspection measures. In this regard, the Convention recognizes the need to balance domestic workers’ right to protection and the right to privacy of domestic members.

The existence of this Convention is a guideline for countries in carrying out the protection of domestic workers through the national legal mechanisms of each country. Protection that the state can carry out is by enacting social security and health regulations, regulating working hours and holidays, and creating a mechanism for accountability of both parties (employers and domestic workers) if they violate the employment agreement contract. The importance of these guarantees relates to the human rights of each domestic worker. This protection is a form of state responsibility to protect its citizens. The state is willing to protect domestic workers in labour by ratifying this Convention. Domestic workers can obtain decent work with protection mechanisms regulated by the government either in the form of regulations issued by legislative institutions or judicial institutions.

The country that has ratified and has laws and regulations regarding domestic workers is the Philippines with the ratification of The Act Institute Policies for the Protection and Welfare of Domestic Workers (Republic Act 10361) on January 18, 2013. When looking at the regulations issued by the judicial institution, the European Union courts in the Judgment of case C-389/20, the TGSS (Chômage des employés de Maison) is the milestone of the first Court of justice in Europe to guarantee the rights of domestic workers. The Court held that the exclusion of social security protection benefits from a category of workers consisting mainly of women (95.53% of the total workers enrolled in a particular scheme for domestic workers in Spain) put female workers at a disadvantage compared to male workers. Therefore, it is indirectly discriminatory based on gender. So the Court held that the state should adequately protect domestic workers. It is because the implementation of work in all forms and levels requires the presence of interdependent and essential elements, which will depend on the conditions in each country. Therefore, if the state does not ratify the Convention on the protection of domestic workers, it indicates that the state does not pay attention to the guarantee of the human rights of domestic workers.

As for what civilians can do to support the protection of domestic workers through social media campaigns and the role of non-governmental organizations. Social media campaigns can be carried out to influence the wider community. The campaign’s output is circulated so that it will be heard by parliament and representatives of the people. So that the government can consider the urgency of laws and regulations related to protecting domestic workers. In addition, the role of non-governmental organizations is essential because their activities can be in the form of assisting and assisting domestic workers in seeking protection for labour activities. Non-governmental organizations can also hold hearings with relevant stakeholders so that the urgency of protecting domestic workers can be considered for follow-up.

[1] International Labour Organization, 2021, “Making decent work a reality for domestic workers: Progress and prospects ten years after the adoption of the Domestic Workers Convention, 2011 (No. 189)”.–en/index.htm

[2] International Labour Organization, 2015, PROMOTE: Pekerjaan Layak bagi Pekerja Rumah Tangga guna Menghapus Pekerja Rumah Tangga Anak, p. 2

[3] Loc.cit.

[4] WIEGO Statistical Brief no.30, 2022 (forthcoming)

[5] International Labour Organization, 2010, Decent Work for Domestic Workers, Report IV (1), International Labour Conference, 99th Session 2010 (Geneva, International Labour Office, 2009), p. 94.

Arimbi Fajari Furqon, born in Bengkulu, July 10, 1999. The author completed his Bachelor of Laws degree in 2021 at Bengkulu University. She is currently one of the Postgraduate students of the Faculty of Law at Gadjah Mada University. The author's interest is in International Law. This is illustrated by the author's activities as a student by participating in various competitions related to International Law. The author can be contacted via email or arimbifajari12321[at]

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How Saudiconomy, is an economic-transformational miracle?

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Saudi Cabinet session. image Source: Saudi Press Agency

What is happening in the Global economy? The outlook seems entirely iffy, in the state of flux and bewildered with negative outlooks. The answer is, “Disturbance”. If we analyze the global-environment with respect to economy, we find it clouded with discussions pertaining to hawkish vs. dovish trends of central-banks, rising inflation, hyper-inflation, tanking GDP growth, Russian-Ukraine conflict, energy-crises, broken supply-chains, unemployment, recession-fears, supply-shocks, lower demands, inverted yield-curves, liquidity crises, banking debacles and many other ensuing economic-ramifications etc. all have become talk of corridors and towns.

In my opinion, the global economy seems in shambles, extrapolated perceptions assumed by analysts out of Jackson Hole meetings and other developed-countries’ central-banks are creating disturbances in financial-markets. Simply, the world is devoid of any solid vision, which could steer it towards betterment and prosperity. Major financial newspapers are dreading with inflation impacts. Ask any banker across the globe about his or her medium-term economic-outlook & you’ll get an ugly picture painted.

Welcome to Saudi Arabia, the year 2022 the country surpassed a mark of a trillion-dollar economy according to both IMF and Oxford Economics coupled with GDP which grew at 8.7% in 2022. The annual CPI in Saudi Arabia  increased by 2.5% and inflation averaged at 2.47% in 2022 which is “absolutely nothing” against double-digits’ inflation worldwide.

So paradoxically asking, what is happening in Saudi Economy? The answer is, “Growth”. If we analyze Saudi economic ecosystem, we find it filled with positive economic-vibes where the discussion is all about hike in industrial-production, foreign-investment-inflows especially huge industrial-investments, mining-investments which aim to unleash the potential of natural-resources, infrastructure-investments, giga-projects, achievement of economic & financial targets on time, flourishing private-sector, multiplying Non-Oil GDP etc.

Taking global-view, H1+H2 of 2022 were clouded with immense geo-political tensions, with ultimate economic-ramifications. But KSA has remained insulated of all global economic-vagaries, which attests the resilience & robustness of Saudi economic framework which is strengthened by Saudi leadership. The fiscal-year 2022 attracted significant foreign capital-inflows, which proves that Saudi Arabia has successfully positioned itself as a desired-destination of global financial-capital amid the ongoing global-turbulence. Saudi Arabia has successfully averted economic-effects of current geo-political turmoil, in terms of utilities, food-security and inflation-containment etc.

The question arises, how did KSA achieve this economic excellence & resilience in really a short time-span? The answer is, a Vision is being implemented and realized by Saudi leadership with sheer commitment and enabled by Saudi youth. This trifecta is indeed a global successful case-study of how major economic-transformations can happen in a short-period of time.

Delving into more details, the fundamental reason is, in 2016 Saudi Arabia had devised a brilliant Vision 2030 under the leadership of H.R.H King Salman and this was a road-map drawn by H.R.H Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, as a forward strategic-economic framework. Under this brilliant vision, uniquely-crafted “Vision Realization Programs” (VRP) were designed, each tasked with a particular niche to smoothen the regulatory-processes, incentivize deployment of local-resources and ultimately attract private-sector & foreign-investments. All these VRPs are showing satisfactory-progress and many of these VRPs have over-achieved brilliantly.

Another driver of this economic-success is a significant-emphasis on optimizing potential of “Non-Oil GDP”. It is the Non-Oil GDP, which ultimately provided an impetus and incentivized Saudi Private-sector to act proactively. The fuel for sky-rocketing “Non-Oil GDP” is actually the giant private-sector of KSA, whose potential is being unleashed by Saudi government via launching a partnership-program namely “Shareek” which aims to intensify the potential of SAR 5 trillion of domestic private sector investments by 2030. The aim is to maximize the private-sector contribution up to 65% in Saudi GDP by 2030.

One of the attributable reasons of this economic-miracle of Saudi Arabia has been a constant emphasis on Higher Education & Research. For instance, scholarship programs for Saudi students proved to be a stellar success. Today we see countless highly-qualified Saudis, possessing valuable global-experience are now steering many organizations in both the public and private sector of country. Their competence coupled with determination, passion & loyalty for their leadership and the country paved the way for Saudi Arabia to result such an economic-success. Nature Index which tracks scientific & intellectual contributions globally has ranked Saudi Arabia, 1st in Arab World & 30th globally in 2022, which manifests emergence of high quality scientific-output by Higher education ecosystem.

Saudi Arabia was one of the countries, which made headlines across global-media due to smart Covid-management, leaving behind many developed economies. For instance, King Abdullah Port has bragged the 1st-position leaving behind 370 global-ports in a globally-renowned index, Container Port Performance Index – 2021 by World Bank and S&P Market Intelligence, which analyzed performances of 370 ports in post-Covid broken supply-chain scenario. Similarly, Jeddah Islamic port and King Abdul Aziz port have bragged 8th and 14th position respectively.

Saudi Arabia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund, Public Investment Fund has emerged as one of the smartest-SWF leaving behind many decades-old SWFs with stellar investments. The PIF     (AuM = 620 USD billion) with its in-built strong potential has taken lead in investing locally in Saudi Arabia. In any country, a monetary-system always carries immense importance in proper functioning of an economy & solidifies its robustness. This important task is being carried out diligently by Saudi Central Bank, SAMA, which is brilliantly regulating Saudi financial-sector.

Saudi Arabia is taking a lead in developing state-of-the-art infrastructure. Each of the giga-project is adding gross-value of billions of SAR directly to economy and is providing thousands of jobs. I call them; “Super-infrastructure” because they are being developed with a super-vision, led by super-teams, giving super-results and yield a super-future. Recently Knight Frank which is a top-notch and a century-old UK-based real-estate consultancy firm has evaluated the 15 giga-projects up to 1.1 trillion dollars.

Indeed, Saudi success story of economic-transformation and diversification embodies sheer brilliance, commitment and determination, which has manifested wonders in less than a decade as appreciated by the Managing Director of IMF in the recent WEF sessions, in these words, “They (Saudis) are using the increase in revenue very effectively to create the investment environment for future growth for diversifying the economy,”

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Economic Strangulation Policies to Impact Kashmir Socio-Economic Dynamics

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For decades, India has implemented coercive economic policies in the estwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, a region that has been the subject of a longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan since their partition in 1947. Despite ongoing efforts to suppress the aspirations of the Kashmiri people, including economic deprivation, one of the most significant examples of India’s economic coercion in the region has been the imposition of an economic blockade.

In 2019, the Indian government further intensified its efforts by revoking the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, which had granted the region autonomy to determine its economic policies. This move was accompanied by a curfew and communication blackout that effectively isolated the region from the outside world, further exacerbating the economic hardship faced by the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

The blockade has had a devastating impact on the economy of IIOJK. The region’s tourism industry, which was a major source of revenue, has been decimated. The Indian government has also seized control of the region’s industries, including its mineral and agricultural resources. The region’s apples, for example, are a major source of revenue, but Indian authorities have blocked their export to the rest of the country, causing huge losses to the farmers.

India has also used other economic measures to exert control over the region. For example, the Indian government has placed restrictions on the movement of goods and people across the Line of Control (LoC) that divides the region between India and Pakistan. This has made it difficult for businesses to import and export goods, as well as for people to visit their families and friends on the other side of the LoC.

In addition, the Indian government has used financial measures to suppress dissent in the region. Indian authorities have frozen the bank accounts of individuals suspected of involvement in anti-India activities. This has made it difficult for these individuals to access their own funds, as well as for others to conduct transactions with them.

India has also used its control over the region’s financial institutions to exert pressure on the Kashmiri people. For example, Indian authorities have pressured banks in the region to refuse loans to individuals suspected of anti-India activities. This has made it difficult for these individuals to start businesses or invest in their communities.

The application of economic strangulation policies in IIOJK is expected to have a substantial impact on the socio-economic dynamics of the region. These policies are aimed at restraining economic activity and growth, and they are likely to result in various harmful consequences for the people of Jammu and Kashmir.

The primary effect of these policies will be an increase in poverty and unemployment rates. As businesses struggle to function and create employment in an environment of economic uncertainty, a considerable number of people will find themselves out of work and grappling to make ends meet. This is likely to intensify the existing social and economic disparities in the region.

Another probable outcome of the economic strangulation policies is a decline in the living standards of the people. As economic activity slows down, prices of essential goods and services are likely to surge, making it difficult for individuals to obtain the basic necessities of life. This could potentially result in a surge in social unrest and political instability in the area.

Additionally, the economic strangulation policies may lead to a decrease in the overall standard of healthcare and education. As the government diverts resources away from these sectors to impose economic sanctions, hospitals and schools are likely to face reductions in funding and staffing, thereby leading to a deterioration in the quality of these essential public services.

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So far, the impact of India’s economic coercion on the people of IIOJK has been devastating. The region’s poverty rate is estimated to be around 30%, and unemployment is rampant. The lack of economic opportunities has led many young people to join freedom fighters, which have been fighting for Kashmiri independence from India for decades.

India’s economic coercion has also had a profound impact on the mental health of the Kashmiri people. The curfew and communications blackout imposed by India in 2019, for example, left many people feeling isolated and helpless. The lack of economic opportunities has also led to high levels of stress and anxiety among the region’s youth.

The international community has condemned India’s coercive policies in IIOJK but is not willing to pressurize India over human rights violations. The United Nations has called for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute, and has urged India to respect the human rights of the Kashmiri people. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has also expressed its concern over the situation in the region.

Pakistan has been vocal in its condemnation of India’s actions. The Pakistani government has called on the international community to intervene in the dispute, and has urged India to withdraw its military forces from the region.

One of the recent policies of economic strangulation in IIOJK by India is the implementation of new land laws in the region. In October 2020, the Indian government issued new land laws that allow non-residents to purchase land in the region. This decision has been met with widespread condemnation from Kashmiri political leaders, who argue that it will lead to demographic change and the loss of control over their land.

Kashmiri leaders from mainstream political parties have also rejected the decision of the Indian government to levy taxes in the region without representation. The slogan “No taxation without representation” has been used by these leaders to argue that the Indian government has no right to impose taxes on the people of the region without their consent.

The argument put forth by these leaders is that the Indian government has violated the basic principle of democracy, which is that the people have the right to elect their own representatives who can make decisions on their behalf. By imposing taxes without representation, the Indian government has effectively denied the people of IIOJK their democratic rights.

The Kashmiri political leaders have also argued that the Indian government’s decision to levy taxes without representation is a violation of international law. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which India is a signatory to, guarantees the right of all peoples to self-determination. The Kashmiri leaders argue that by imposing taxes without representation, the Indian government is denying the people of IIOJK their right to self-determination.

The Kashmiri leaders have also pointed out that the Indian government’s decision to impose taxes on the region without representation is a continuation of its policy of economic strangulation in IIOJK. They argue that the Indian government’s actions are designed to suppress the aspirations of the Kashmiri people and to maintain its control over the region.

Overall, the impact of the economic strangulation policies in IIOJK is likely to be extensive and severe, affecting not only the economic but also the social and political structure of the region. The people of Jammu and Kashmir are likely to face various challenges in the upcoming years as they strive to adjust to this new reality, highlighting the need for the international community to closely monitor the situation and take action to support those affected.

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U.S. Is Threatening to Default China Debt Repayment, What Will Beijing Do?

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Under Xi’s decade-long rule, China’s holding of US Treasury debt has been consistently declining, last year it fell by $173.2 billion – 17% of the total holdings of the US bond by China. This was the largest annual reduction in six years when the Chinese holdings were reduced by $187.6 billion in 2016. Experts reckon China will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury holdings in 2023. However, clamoring for selling US debt as soon as possible is growing by the day in China.

Financial experts say the ramifications of the continuing US-China political rivalry are now increasingly being manifested in arenas other than geopolitics – in the speeding up of the Renminbi’s exit from the dollar. International Capital Statistics (ICS) released by the US Department of Treasury this February show China’s holdings of US treasury bonds stood at $867 billion at the end of December last year – a month-on-month fall for five consecutive months. Viewed from escalating political hostility, this decline is a new low since Xi Jinping was installed as the party general secretary at the CPC 18th Congress in October 2012. Remember, this was also the time when the Obama administration had launched its China containment strategy, called the “pivot to Asia” policy.

Analysts point out, though the reduction in China’s holdings of US bonds last year is normal when compared with the overall 6% decline in the holdings of US treasury bonds in overseas countries, what is alarming is the decline in China is more prominent. Following the rapid raising of the interest rates by the US Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) last year, the 10-year Treasury yield – an indicator of US long-term interest rates, rose from about 1.5% at the end of 2021 to nearly 4% by the end of December month last year. Soon after the US Department of Treasury made public the ICS for the year 2022 on February 15, a Nikkei Asia analysis on its Chinese website stated, the sharp decline in China’s holdings of the US Treasury bonds was to avoid losses caused by rising interest rates.  

Yellen: We Won’t Allow China Get Repayment Benefits

More interestingly, citing a large US bond management company the article further pointed out the US sanctions on Russia after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukraine war as one of the leading factors behind China’s move to reduce holdings of US Treasury bonds. “China has raised its vigilance against similar measures being taken when the confrontation between China and the United States deepens in the future,” wrote. As has been widely reported, top US officials including Antony Blinken and Janet Yellen have repeatedly said the US wouldn’t hesitate to sanction Chinese entities if Beijing aids Russia in the war against Ukraine.

A similar argument has been put forward by the mainland Chinese professor of economics Cao Xing last Sunday. Weary of the US game-playing on debt repayment (to China), Professor Cao said it’s time for China to clear its US debt. Earlier in February, when US Treasury Secretary Yellen in a stark statement said, “China cannot be allowed to get the benefits of repayment,” Cao described the blunt remark as symbolic of the US determination to politicize the issue. In his popular signed blog “Professor Cao Xing,” he wrote: “The debt scale of the United States has exceeded the debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. On top of this, the ongoing banking system crisis has put everyone in the US financial sector at risk.” Cao went on to add.  

Will US Actually Default China Debt Payment

At another level, a serious debate is unfolding among global fund management strategists in the US on the likely ramifications for the global economy in general and China in particular, if the United States debt default on the People’s Republic. In the opinion of Arthur R. Kroeber, a Washington-based independent economic researcher, and Editor of China Economic Quarterly – a publication of a global economic research firm, GaveKal Dragonomics, a big political drama promises to take place in the next few months over the federal debt ceiling – the GOP strongly opposed to raising the ceiling on the one hand, and the US Treasury defaulting on its debt on the other hand.  

Disagreeing with those who argue the US Treasury bond “political drama” is merely politicking, such as Arthur Kroeber, professor Cao not only takes every word uttered by Secretary Yellen very seriously (that she won’t allow the US to pay up the Chinese debt), but he is also quite apprehensive that Yellen’s real purpose is to pressure and trick China into increasing its holdings of US debt.    

Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal disclosed in a report the US deputy assistant secretary of the Department of Treasury for Asian Affairs, Robert Kaproth, visited Beijing in February last week to discuss macroeconomic and financial issues. Speaking about Kaproth’s visit, Professor Cao has revealed the “secret” mission Kaproth undertook to Beijing actually had only one agenda, i.e. to hope China would increase its holdings of US debt, but China obviously did not make any concessions.

Renminbi versus US Dollar

According to experts in China, the gradual yet continuous decline in China’s holdings in US Treasury bonds is increasingly causing concerns in the United States. In the past decade or so, China has reduced its holdings of US debt by 34%; China currently holds $859.4 billion US debt which is at the lowest since 2009. Analysts in China say, the US fear is China will drastically reduce its US debt holdings to as low as $100 billion. Earlier on, before the visit to China by Blinken became a casualty to the “spy balloon” drama, Treasury Secretary Yellen was to accompany the Secretary of State.

Yellen’s chief mission to visit Beijing in early February was to resume discussions with her Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier and China’s economics tsar Liu He – left off in Yellen-Liu meeting this January in Switzerland – to “deter” Beijing from further selling its holdings of the US bonds. It was precisely to achieve the agenda of preventing continuous decline in China’s holding of US bonds that Yellen had announced US will not let China enjoy benefits of “repayment.” It is this naked display of the US determination to default on the Chinese debt which might lead Beijing to create a substitute system to dollar by internationalizing the renminbi.

By Defaulting, Is US Aiming At Regime Change In China

In short, as Kroeber has wondered, the consequences of the US debt default may not be threatening regime change, instead it will be damaging enough to destabilize the renminbi. It is pertinent to mention, in the event of a global meltdown caused by the US federal government shutdown (if it happens, it will occur in coming June), unlike during the 2008-2009, this time Chinese economy would be hurt a lot. For two reasons, back in 2008-2009 the Chinese Communist Party quickly unleashed a massive debt-financed economic stimulus program; second, fifteen years ago, the country’s debt level at 140 percent of GDP was rather low, but today its debt has soared to 300 percent of GDP.  

Finally, experts in China are fully aware of the limitations to internationalize the renminbi, just to mention a few: unlike the US dollar, the renminbi is by far hugely insulated from global financial shocks, and to bring money in and out of China requires permission from Beijing (a.k.a. capital controls); like the US dollar is considered the world’s lynchpin currency, the renminbi is not; the renminbi accounts for just 2.8 percent of global official central bank reserves as compared to 60 percent and 20 percent for the US dollar and euro, respectively. Without a doubt, therefore, Cao and many Chinese experts are clamoring for an easy and quick way out: since the US has made it clear Washington won’t repay Chinese debt even if it has the money, the best solution for Beijing is to at once clear all of US Treasury bond holdings. But can China, do it?

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