A Chinese balloon floating in American airspace has finally persuaded US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to postpone his much awaited visit to Beijing.
The Incident
The balloon was first spotted on February 1, 2023 by the Canadian defence authorities which stated that its movement was being monitored by NORAD in alliance with American partners. The balloon, currently floating in the stratosphere, was spotted days later in Billings, Montana where it reached after flying over Alaska’s Aleutian Islands, through Canada. The Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, visiting the Philippines at the time, convened a meeting of senior military officials where it was decided that the balloon should not be shot down owing to possible security concerns regarding the debris falling over civilian regions. The balloon, suspected to move further eastwards, is found as not posing any tangible security threat.
The People’s Republic of China admitted to the balloon being of Chinese origin. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry on February 3 clarified that the balloon is of “civilian” nature (民用性质) used for meteorological purposes and got blown off coast owing to the Westerlies. China expressed regret on the incident, noted as an “error of force majeure” (不可抗力误入), intending to negotiate with the US to mitigate the “unforeseen situation” (意外情况). On the evening of February 3, Chinese Foreign Minister and State Councillor Wang Yi also held a telephonic conversation with Blinken stressing that China is a “responsible country which has consistently observed international law”. He noted that China “does not accept any baseless summarisations and sensationalisation of the issue” (中国是负责任国家，一贯严格遵守国际法，我们不接受任何无端的臆测和炒作。)
The Aftermath
The incident has incited contrasting reactions from both sides. While many experts admit to the possibility of the balloon being blown off coast owing to the powerful Westerlies that blow in the region, the balloon’s ability to linger for days creates suspicions over its benign nature. Balloons, argues an article published in the BBC, unlike aircrafts or drones are not only cheaper, easier to use but are also difficult to track which is the reason why the exact route of the balloon cannot be determined. It is claimed that such high altitude balloons can also loiter for days over target areas owing to their slow speed unlike drones which remain confined to their orbital pass. The move is claimed to be a sleight of Beijing to spy over the sensitive American military region.
Many reports have also claimed that being spotted was the whole point behind sending the balloon. Some experts are reading it as a way for China to highlight its technological prowess to the United States without escalating the situation while at the same time recording American response to it.
The incident has also ruffled some feathers within the US political corridors; with many, particularly Republicans, pushing President Biden to tersely respond to the situation while also making the incident a pretext for banning Chinese technology and apps such as Tiktok over privacy and security concerns. The most severe consequence however has been Blinken’s decision to postpone his two-day visit to Beijing.
A stern editorial published in the Global edition of China Today (中国日报) on February 3, dubbed the reactions as a way of tarnishing China’s image. While the links to China which the editorial denies have been confirmed by Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, the article notes:
“We can be sure about the ignorance of the fabricator. Surveillance balloons being used as military technology dates back to the early 20th century, the technology is outdated one can hardly imagine any nation like China still resorting to it today; at the same time, the shortest route between Beijing and Montana is over 9,000km, which makes it impossible to precisely control the flight of this or any balloon.”
Turning the tables on the US, the article further notes:
“What really deserves attention during the whole “balloon incident” is that some US media outlets and “experts” have claimed Montana is a highly sensitive place due to the fact there are about 150 intercontinental missile launching sites there, with confidential military information. While the real question is why are the US hoarding such a large stockpile of weapons of mass destruction?”.
A Chinese article in the Sina News similarly rebuffed all claims of the spy balloon as “sheer nonsense” (“纯属无稽之谈”) by citing several military experts. Another article on the news website refuted such claims by noting several previous “China threat theories” including the case of “spy refrigerators”. The article justifies the argument by pointing out how the US had been planning to produce such high altitude inflatables for surveillance purposes. Citing a Pentagon report, an article in the Time claimed that such balloons are common surveillance instruments used by several nations including the United States. Moreover, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Shih Shun-wen noted that such weather balloons used by the PLA, several of which entered Taiwan’s airspace, are innocuous and do not pose any security threat.
What does it mean?
While American threat perceptions cannot be entirely denied, postponing Blinken’s visit could have been avoided. In an article for The Diplomat, Prof. Hemant Adlakha highlights the ambivalent attitude of the Chinese official discourse and academia towards Blinken’s visit. The news of the visit did not just remain unconfirmed till the last moment but conspicuously lacked any enthusiasm. Prof. Adlakha notes that such an attitude stems from Beijing’s reservations over hosting Blinken, a figure seen as furthering an unfavourable stance towards China. Another article by the Quincy Institute claimed the situation to be “inflated” beyond requirement and emphasised on the need for diplomatic efforts to be made during times of crises like the present scenario by citing several past examples including the 2001 Hainan Island incident.
Be as it may, the whole episode clearly highlights the deteriorating trust between Washington and Beijing. The bilateral relations, which have remained downhill for more than three years, are in an urgent need of rejuvenation. China and the United States must realise the importance of their stable bilateral relationship for the maintenance of world peace. Incidents like such are a test of diplomatic efforts and both sides must put in active efforts to mitigate the situation.
