On January 14th, 2023, US assistant secretary Donald Lu is visiting Bangladesh. Lu is the top diplomat for the USA in South and Central Asia, where he has been working for a long time as a diplomat.
However, Lu has also gained notoriety for his coercive diplomatic method among South Asian diplomats. His involvement in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka has created an image of a ‘coercive diplomat’ in the region. But considering the current trend of Bangladesh-US relations, his visit will surely have several implications including the settlement of political dissatisfaction, the future of the Rohingya, investment, and the Indo-Pacific strategy.
Lu’s Notorious Image
The name ‘Donald Lu’ became well-known after Pakistan’s ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan’s allegation. After being toppled, Imran Khan directly accused Donald Lu to be the conspirator behind his topple. Khan also alleged that Lu threatened Khan about the topple.
Prior to that Donald Lu also played an instrumental role in pursuing Nepal to sign Millennium Challenge Cooperation (MCC) with the USA. MCC now has become a burden for Nepal to fulfill its commitments. Lu also visited Nepal last year and forced Nepal to ratify the agreement threatening to review the existing bilateral ties.
Lu was also instrumental in Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. Lu had a role in reinstating Ranil Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister amid the turmoil to safeguard US interest. Even in October, Lu also said ‘you are the right man to it [referring to the recovery process]’.
Hence, after Imran’s allegation, Lu became a name of ‘coercive diplomacy’ in South Asia. However, in the context of Bangladesh, things may not be the same considering the visit and Bangladesh’s neutrality policy.
Lu’s Visit
Donald Lu is supposed to arrive in Dhaka on 14 January at midnight. The following day, on 15 January, he will exchange views with the government high-ups, political parties, and civil society. He will also meet Foreign Minister and Foreign Secretary. The main agenda of his visit will revolve around priority issues such as energy, trade, security cooperation, religious freedom, labor, and human rights. Lu will also explore possibilities of expanding economic engagement and hear civil society perspectives on labor and human rights.
It seems the visit will focus heavily on the ongoing dissatisfaction with internal politics, human rights issues, the GSP scheme, defense agreements namely GSOMIA and ACSA, the Rohingya issue, and its future, and investment in Bangladesh. The geopolitics regarding Indo-pacific will be discussed as the US is now prioritizing it seriously.
Lu’s Visit: A continuation of Diplomatic Engagement
Lu’s visit can also be seen as a continuation of diplomatic engagement between the countries. Since the last two years, both the countries have increased their diplomatic engagement. Till now 17 mid and high-level bilateral visits have taken place including Eileen Laubacher’s latest one. Among the 17 visits, Bangladesh has sent 7 delegations to the US while the US has sent 10 to its counterpart. Lu’s visit will be 11th in last two years. The reason behind such large number of visits is due to expanding relations and short-term disagreements that needs to be solved. The Indo-pacific strategy and Bangladesh’ geostrategic significance are also behind this deepening engagement.
The bilateral relations are also flourishing ranging from economic to cultural. Over the years, the existing bilateral trades are increasing and have reached USD 13 billion in 2022. The US is also the 3rd largest trading partner of Bangladesh and is the top donator to the Rohingya with USD 1.9 billion. It has also provided over 100 million doses of vaccine as an aid to Bangladesh which accounts for its 70% donation of total vaccine to the world.
Amid such expanding relations, discontent has also emerged for both parties. The US is dissatisfied with Bangladesh’s domestic politics while Bangladesh is also dissatisfied with US’s interference. The RAB sanctions also put a strain on the relations and Bangladesh is seeking to lift them. Apart from such political issues, there are some security and economic issues also for both countries to discuss. The US wants to sign two defense agreements with Bangladesh while Bangladesh wants to GSP to reinstate and the US to increase investment in Bangladesh. And lastly, the US also wants Bangladesh to join its Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Implications
As a result of deep engagement and long list of priorities, Donald Lu’s visit will bring several implications for Bangladesh. Firstly, the visit will increase diplomatic communication bilaterally and will serve as a continuation since 2020. As Lu is the top diplomat for the US in this region, the meeting will provide opportunity for both countries to hold talks on pressing issues. And lastly, this visit will also provide Lu with a personal opportunity to regain his image as he has gained notoriety in other South Asian states. It could be an opportunity for Lu to reconstruct his image by working on mutual interest rather than using coercive methods.
The US-Bangladesh relations and its latest trend is favorable both countries. Bangladesh’s neutrality and balancing policy is also accommodative of US objectives in the region as it will not bring any threat to any rivals. The routine visits are good signs for the bilateral relations as these provide opportunities to share on disagreements and helps locating opportunities to pursue together. For Lu, it is also an opportunity to reconstruct his diplomatic image. Coercive diplomacy only drives nation far away. In this context, Lu’s visit may bring many positive implications not only for Bangladesh but also him.
