The unending Russo-Ukrainian conflict that has added another dark chapter to the European history is now at the threshold of what can be called ‘the most uncalled for moment’, the use of nukes. This has increased the chances of ‘Mutual Assured Destruction’ (MAD) and the catastrophic time for Europe ahead, and the peril looms high with the audience of IR theatre and war strategy. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president has time and again warned of using nuclear weapons to save Russian sovereignty and territoriality implied therein. Russia could use a small, or ‘tactical’ nuclear weapon in Ukraine, in case the things reverse against the Russian expectations. It is believed that the smallest tactical weapon could be of ‘one kiloton’ capacity and even its half, a much smaller than the one used at Hiroshima in 1945 that had 15 kiloton capacity.
The Global Flashpoints
The heat generated by the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict fueled by NATO and its sympathisers on the one hand and Russia on the other reminds one of 35 days long deadlock of Cuban missile crisis of 1962. In 1961 in the aftermath of US deployment of Jupiter Missiles in Italy and Turkey Soviet Union had positioned its nuclear missiles in Cuba when the Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev signed an agreement with Cuban Prime Minister Fidel Castro in July 1962 over the deployment and the construction of a number of missiles launch facilities (Thakur, 2022). No other flashpoints in global politics near this crisis, not even the Palestinian issue, the Kashmir deadlock, the South China Sea or Syrian crisis, if seen from the current intensity of situation. The Taliban’s access to nukes may also prove catastrophic as that of any dictator or the orthodox irresponsible ruling band. The situation in South Asia and the India’s tensions with Pakistan and China also make for a distant possibility, so far as the nuclear engagement is concerned.
The US Grand Strategy and Ukraine
The ‘Russian expectation’, often confounded with the idea of ‘Greater Russia’ (a historical concept of Russian consolidation) floated from the western camp is the ‘soft-belly’ that the Biden administration is aiming at. But in the meantime, it also fails to hibernate the US ‘Grand Strategy’ of global dominance and intervention in the ‘other world’ on the name of ‘mission for liberal democracy’. The American Grand strategy has acquired changing dimensions over the decades from the ‘policy of isolationism’ to the idea of ‘American Exceptionalism’. The strategy also carries the ideological component circumvented by the post-WW I developments and the communist expansion. “Since the Revolutionary era, most American conflicts have been articulated and justified with some reference to this founding ideology, lending a distinctive, normative dimension to American strategy and strategic culture” (Hooker, 2014). Sometimes described as ‘American exceptionalism,’ this component has been seen by some as an impulse to promote democratic values and the rule of law abroad as well as at home, and by others as an excuse for intervention (Lipset, 1997, p. 17). The US role in Korea, Vietnam, Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Chad, Brazil, Angola, Nicaragua, to cite some, has been reflective of this strategy, manifested through ‘US Interventionism’, ‘Munroe Doctrine’, ‘Johnson Doctrine’ and the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ that implies military action if US security is under threat.
Vladimir Putin’s warning that his country’s nuclear threats are ‘not a bluff’, has not to be taken lightly. Although analysts differ over its possibility. “Putin also issued the warning after accusing Western countries of resorting to ‘nuclear blackmail’, despite no NATO countries threatening to use nuclear weapons. The threat comes as Russia’s prospects in Ukraine are grim, with Putin’s military losing thousands of square miles of territory to a Ukrainian counteroffensive” (Hagstrom, September 21, 2022). In an interview with FRANCE 24 from Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that any use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine would have ‘severe, dramatic consequences for Russia. However, “the likelihood of any use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine by Russia remains low. Meanwhile, Stoltenberg called the Russian strategy of targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ‘a brutal form of warfare’ and ‘a way to weaponise winter” (Perelman, 2022). In view of the intensity of situation while NATO leadership is expected to exercise restraint the US administration has been acting stiff to make the things worse. Joe Biden has warned that any use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine by Russia could lead to “Armageddon”. Speaking at a Democratic fundraising event in New York on October 6, the US president said the crisis was the closest the world had come to nuclear catastrophe for sixty years.
Evading Armageddon
In view of the current crisis and avoid the ‘Armageddon’ a truce is the need of the hour in which the countries close to Russia like China, Germany and India could play a significant role. In the meantime the US has to exercise restraint over prompting Ukrainian leadership and threatening the use of NATO and sanctioning Russia. The NATO members have also to learn to speak for themselves against the US perspective of the world and develop a platform of dialogue about NATO’s future engagements. Although Germany and France have been active in exempting themselves from US control, yet the inside democracy is still lacking. NATO has also to ensure the non-inclusion of Ukraine and keep it as distant as possible from the Russian threshold, the main security concern of Russia. What appears to be lacking in the current crisis is the lack of diplomatic efforts at resolving the dispute, which unravels the other side of the vested interests or what Putin says ‘US wants to drag the conflict long’. The ‘missile diplomacy’ and the ‘nuclear diplomacy’ have to be executed separately keeping the possibility of the latter at a distance, thus ensuring the human security. US should promptly ensure to hold back the NATO expansion project of Neocons that it has been following since 1992 and guarantee the Russian security concerns to end the war.
