Ukraine War: A way Forward to Tackle Putin’s aggression

Ever since the disintegration of USSR into 15 sovereign independent countries which began in 1991,  the USA vigorously took the reins of a new unipolar world order. He along with his allies set up liberal democratic order, hereby he tried to manifest it as the only suitable international system for every country on the globe. However, current world order was created without the consent of the then two largest geographical giants: the overwhelmed Russia and speedy growing power China. Although the new world order continues at present, but it is presumably seemed so weak aftermath of Russian attack on Ukraine which started amid the crisis of COVID-19 when the economy of the world had already faced stalemate. It, now looks impossible for the US to brings Russia on his terms by putting tough sanctions on Russia. Howbeit, things have changed at 180° and Ukraine war is being perceived as one of the major symptoms for the collapse of the American led world order.

Russia attacked Ukraine on 24th of February 2022. It had been the first marathon step from Russia since its downfall. To many this war might have involved other major players and at the end led to third great World war. Furthermore, it might have triggered nuclear war among nuclear states. But prolonged war proved all widely spread prognostications invalid. Although the West and the America issued strong and threatening rhetorics against  aggressive attitude of Russia. The USA claimed to be involved in the war by indirectly helping Ukraine to defend it sovereign borders from all sides. In addition, on American behalf his allies were also calling for immediate stoppage of the war by cutting trade relations with Kremlin. On the contrary all efforts went in vain when Moscow further intensified the on going war in Ukraine.  In later Months a divide was observed in within NATO allies and EU.

Having been largely dependent on Russia gas supplies, European countries nihilistically been unable to cope with the crisis warm handedly.  Germany and Italy have shown their energy related vulnerabilities and have been least content  by  cutting energy supply line. It is obvious that how much NATO allies rely on Moscow energy resources. On the other hand, the USA is not able to accomplish energy  requirements of his all time-tested friends even for temporary purposes.

 Russian rogue tsar sitting in Kremlin looks satisfied of ramifications of his aggressions and  also seems contend to take further options available in his disposal in the battle field. Apart from this Russia has turned all tables on her side by making strong relations not only with world’s second biggest economy, China, but also with other leading oil exporting countries i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iran and other OPEC countries even the USA accused OPEC for siding with Russia.. This was crystal clear by two different visits from  two important leaders of the time and with what preference they were welcomed by the same hosts, the important one Muhammad Bin Salman of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, that is on the airs nowadays because of his eye-opening shift in foreign policy from west to Northeast and east, Russia and China for the country’s national interests. To middle east Biden’s visit is considered failure whereas Xi Jinping’s relatively most successful who is again political and economical rival of the USA.

Nonetheless, this astounding change in the world affairs signifies prudent emergence of the new world order by replacing the existing one. Even though Washington alongside his tried- and-true allies endeavored  to restraint Russia in Ukraine war by entangling a series of lashing punishments in terms of sanctions and embargoes on energy streamlines. Yet failed in his attempts. In addition, the USA cannot involve itself directly owing to his historical ruthless overseas adventures. Having found no justified grounds for the infiltration the USA have been proven a paper tiger outside of the west.

Succinctly, new construction of the post new world order is underway dominated by Russia and China, no doubt Whitehouse would also be playing immense role of his part, but the most concerning question of course would be about whether this transformation would be easy and peaceful, without disturbing the security of the world, or difficult to some extent.

Having said this, however, the game still remains in the hands of the USA if American leadership play it smartly.  It is possible to defeat Russia just by putting oil on the fire of multiethnic society of Russia where around 135 different languages and 190 ethics groups live together. The long continued war has created grievances among the urban communities and the far flange areas of least development even if they contribute more than the urban communes and the minorities have shows great dissidents because of high mortal toll of the conscripts of the war.  Although this would not be so easy, but remains on the core of the board of strategic options. Nevertheless, this war in Ukraine is like Napoleonic expedition to Egypt which exposed the fragility of Ottoman empire whereby it become easy to conspire and wage battles against the empire. Here the history again repeats itself in Ukraine war where the USA looks very weak to take any coercive actions against Russia. It is also possible to conjecture that in future China would be carrying great expedition against Taiwan.

Finally, the world is passing through delicate time of the history. All major power are at loggerhead with one another. This war is different from the previous all kinds of wars. Hopefully this will end soon and peace and security will again be maintained.

Imdad Ali
Imdad Ali
Imdad Ali is Associate Research Fellow at IR Department, Balochistan. The scholar has great understanding of Regional and global affairs, he has also written a number of articles in local newspapers and gazettes.