The Taliban’s decision to ban female higher education will cause highly adverse outcomes for Afghanistan. Firstly, this decision will lead to even more isolation of the Taliban by the international community and the community of states that have a backlash against this regime. I repeat that the Taliban regime is still not recognized by the leading countries of the world, by the Western and Asian countries. The Taliban face particular conditions related to making an inclusive government and the involvement of all strata of Afghan communities in social and political life. The decision to ban education definitely does not fit into this logic and contradicts it.
Secondly, it will lead to an even more significant decline in the economic situation in the country because Afghanistan is, from the point of the economy, a country that is utterly dependent on foreign financial help. Most of the assets of the Afghan state are in Western banks and are blocked for today. This moment also depends on the choice of Western states – whether they will unlock these assets or not. Of course, they will not like this decision, as evidenced by many statements. I remind that official representatives of the United States, Great Britain, France, European countries, India, and regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and others, hummer the Taliban’s decision to ban women’s education.
Moreover, the next aspect is that it will force total internal contradictions because, after all, the conceptions of civil society have been created in Afghanistan over the past twenty years. Yes, they are not significant and minimal, and I do not know what percentage it is. Of course, it is a small percentage of Afghan society, and it is primarily the local middle class in large cities. Not only in Kabul but also, like, in Herat and some other cities in the north, for example, in Mazar-I-Sharif – these are small parts of the total number of citizens of Afghanistan. But these people are very enthusiastic and intelligent, and they will resist the decision of the Taliban, which will undoubtedly cause a particular reaction. And I think the Taliban will successfully suppress it, they will use a Repressive State Apparatus, but in any case, it will not contribute to national security and creating an inclusive society and government in Afghanistan.
Finally, as I have already said and written in numerous of my papers, this is the problem of the logic of such regimes and radical organizations, and this is just the start. The Taliban will tighten its policy. The Taliban can’t do anything else. They do not know how to run the country in a normal way. They do not know how to create standard modern institutions. They do not know how to manage the economy, social strata, and social and state institutions. Thus, all they can do is jump into archaic and radical Islam. All this will lead to even more tragedy for the Afghan State and Afghan society. Radicalism and Islamism will increase, and terrorists will feel even more comfortable and imposing on the territory of Afghanistan. Moreover, it should be noted that no one is fighting terrorism in Afghanistan right now. And in general, the country found itself in a vacuum. No one is interested in Afghanistan, everyone has forgotten about it, and everyone is now coping with the situation around Ukraine, which is undoubtedly right. There is a violent confrontation, and it is necessary to help those who were attacked and suffer.
When a vacuum comes around in world politics it would lead to disappointing and very dangerous consequences. It should be stressed out that such vacuum appeared in the nineteenths, when no one was interested in Afghanistan and so the Taliban came to power. It resulted in the fact that the September 11, 2011, terrorist attacks were planned from the territory of Afghanistan, so here we can only state the need for the community of countries – the community of states, the international community and UN structures and leading countries of the world of both Western and Asian and Eastern countries should be more actively involved in Afghan politics from a political and diplomatic point. To pressure the Taliban and their sponsors and to promote the creation of an inclusive government if this is, of course, possible. I don’t believe in it anymore. I feel the Taliban is probably unchangeable, and it is almost impossible or extremely hard to transform it into a more or less normally non-aggressive state.
