More than 10 months have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and since then many countries have dived in and supported the west and the European Union in the trend of boycotting Russia or imposing sanctions so that Russia may pull back its troops or there may be some impact on the Russian economy as well, but the case has been the complete opposite as the Russian economy has only shrunk by a mere 3.4% and will continue to do so by the end of 2022. Many countries have still not boycotted Russia for its conflict with Ukraine, and one of them is India, which has taken a stand of neutrality ever since the conflict started. Although the neutral stand has been working for India, now that the conflict has dragged on for more than 10 months, many experts are wondering as to how long the neutral stance can work for India.
Relations between Russia and India: The Cold War and Now
The bilateral relations and overall international policies of Russia and India are referred to as “relations.” It was during the Cold War era that the Soviet Union (USSR) formed a strong and strategic partnership with India. Both countries, India and Russia, have had a long history of friendly, mutually beneficial relations, including during the Cold War. Ever since India got its independence in 1947, it has always maintained close relations with the Soviet Union, although the latter played an important role in the relationship as the Soviet Union was India’s main arms supplier from 1947 until today, as, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia kept the same close ties to India as it did with the Soviet Union. The major initiative that was taken between both countries was the signing of the Strategic Partnership in the year 2000, which became a historic step. Since then, both countries’ relationship in an economic sense has grown very significantly, as Russia has been a major supplier of arms to India. Between 2012 and 2016, India and Russia participated in a variety of military programs, including:
- BrahMos cruise missile programme
- 5th Generation Fighter Jet Program
- Sukhoi Su-30MKI programme
- IIlyushin/HAL Tactical Transport Aircraft
- KA-226T twin-engine utility helicopters
- Numerous frigates
Both India and Russia signed a $2.9 billion defence deal in 2012. In 2018, the countries signed another agreement, worth US$5.3 billion, in which Russia will procure about five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, which are one of the best missile defence systems in the world. From 2013–2018, the arms sales of Russia to India accounted for 62%. India and Russia have also set a bilateral trade target of $30 billion, which they hope to achieve by 2025. Even in 2022, the trade between the two countries soared to an all-time high of $18 million, which they achieved in just 5 months. The trade increased by $8 million, as the figure stood at $10 million in 2019–20. With the sharp spike in trade, Russia has now become the 7th largest trading partner of India, which is a huge boost for Russia as it stood at the 25th position in 2021. There have been just two years in the past in which the bilateral commerce between the two nations has exceeded the $10 billion level, and those years were 2017–18 ($10,686.85 million) and 2019–20 ($10,110.68 million).
The figures reveal that Russia’s portion of India’s overall commerce has climbed to 3.54%, up from 1.27% in 2021–22. This represents a significant increase from Russia’s previous share of 1.27%. Although Russia’s portion of India’s overall commerce accounted for 2.1% in 1997–1988, that percentage has remained consistently below 2% throughout the course of the previous 25 years. Both countries’ relationship on an economic basis is also very cordial and friendly, as both countries have supported each other throughout the years. Russia stood up for India after independence when it was in desperate need of help. Russia also stood by India during the 1971 war against Pakistan when the US and UK wanted to support Pakistan by trying to move closer to India’s territorial waters. It was due to the Soviet Union that the plans of the US and UK failed.
Today, the relationship stands at a very complicated stage.
Ever since the conflict started, India has refused to condemn Russia and maintained a neutral stance, and this is not the first time that India is helping its oldest ally, as India has a rich history of remaining silent on many of Russia’s meandering and often unpredictable border realignment policies. India has frequently refrained from calling out Russia on international stages. Prime Minister Narendra Modi isn’t the first Indian leader to do so; from Jawaharlal Nehru to Indira Gandhi, India has taken this sort of stand for Russia many times before. In 2014, when Crimea was annexed by Russia, India was accused of sitting on the sidelines and even participating in the conflict. In order to protect India’s national interests, it makes sense for the government to ignore western sanctions on oil and defence trade. But it is tough to connect Mr. Narendra Modi’s comments with what External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said about following the UN charter and how important it is to protect territorial sovereignty while India continues to stay out of all votes that criticise Russia’s actions in Ukraine, like bombing civilians and taking over occupied territory. India was the only Asian country that supported Russia and opposed western sanctions, but over the past few months, the situation has become quite complicated for India. When Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions independent states, it altered geopolitics for the foreseeable future. If the conflict drags on for years, India’s neutral stance may hurt India in the long run, as India needs Russia, as 60 to 70 percent of India’s military hardware is of Russian origin, and India needs its Quad partner to counter China. Since the Galwan Valley Clash of 2020, India cannot ignore Russia’s recent actions and the crisis that has occurred as a result of this conflict.
Conclusion
The Indian government seems to be constantly shifting its stance, according to its comments on the problem. First “worried,” then “deploring,” India’s reaction to the issue has evolved. India began insisting that all nations adhere to the UN Charter and international law. As part of this goal, it is important that nations’ rights to self-determination over their own territory be protected. India has also spoken out against the Russian military’s killing of civilians in the Ukrainian city of Bucha, calling for a probe into the incident. Conspicuous progress toward mastery of the problem is being made. It is difficult to observe how we are approaching the third month of the Ukrainian conflict, which puts moral weight on all nations, including India, to urge for an end to the situation. Although EAM Jaishankar has repeatedly rebuffed questions from foreign media about the war and “why India does not stand with the West and sanction Russia,” as long as this conflict continues, it will have long-term implications for India’s national security. For the time being, the best India can do is take a nuanced stance on the crisis and try to stand up in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, because if western experts are correct about the conflict, it may be difficult for India to remain neutral if the conflict drags on for years, and as the Russians conduct new military exercises with the Chinese and with the recent clash of Indian troops with the Chinese at the Arunachal Pradesh mountain after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes, India needs the support of the West and its Quad more than the Russians to contain the threat posed by the Chinese, and it needs the support of the US if it tends to strengthen its borders and protect itself from Chinese incrusion because with the recent reports of the Chinese superhydropower dam which is to be built on the Bhramaputra river points out that China tends to cut India from all sides.
