Moscow still sees itself as a critical player in the Caucasus region. The ongoing crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Karabakh region allows Russia to participate in Caucasus affairs. Moscow organized Sochi Summit for Baku and Yerevan for direct talks. The ongoing crisis in the Caucasus has also become a hot topic at the CSTO summit. Russia seems to remain an influential power and a peace mediator for the Caucasus.
However, Russia’s desire to become the peace broker in the outer Caucasus region is merely a fantasy. Due to the ongoing Ukrainian war, Russia lacks the power to project and credibility. Armenia, a close ally of Moscow, is also slowly distancing itself from Moscow, thus making Russia’s vision even harder to achieve. Furthermore, the outside powers, especially Turkey, have grown significantly more substantial, further eroding Russia’s influences in the region and, therefore, the chances of facilitating peace talks.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has gone far beyond the expectation of Moscow. While Ukrainians bravely defend their homeland, Russia’s seemingly almighty war machine is deep in a predicament. Moscow calling for partial mobilization further reveals its dire situation. Russia’s military failure also shook the foundation of Russia’s power projection, as the world now sees Russia as weaker than ever before. The recent incident of Azerbaijani blocking the road towards Karabakh is a vital sign that Russia is losing its grip over the Karabakh region.
To make matters worse, Russia’s military actions in Ukraine also triggered a diplomatic tsunami. Putin’s speech alerted all the former Soviet countries, further depleting Russian credibility. Meanwhile, the war diverted essential resources and ruined the formidable image of Russian troops. Azerbaijanis are now taking more aggressive actions in Karabakh after the war, while Karabakh residents have already questioned the effectiveness of Russian peacekeeping forces even before the war. On all fronts, Moscow’s credibility in mediating peace has eroded.
Russia maintained a close relationship with Armenia, yet this relationship is far from secure. On the surface, Russia has been the biggest supporter of Armenia and provides security guarantees. Russian remained a significant military presence in Armenia while even planning for future expansion. Russia also offered mediation after the second Armenia-Azerbaijan War and contributed peacekeepers for the only road toward Karabakh. Even very recently, President Putin says that the Russia-Armenia relationship is still at a high level.
However, Yerevan’s trust in Moscow has been visibly shrinking. The mistrust from Yerevan to Moscow is growing after the second war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. From Yerevan’s point of view, the Russia-led CSTO almost ignored the conflict despite Armenia’s request. After the signing of the peace agreement, some articles became either ambiguous or even not fully executed, like prisoners’ exchange. Russia’s failed support left Armenia bitter and drove it further away from Moscow.
Armenia has been more straightforward in addressing its dissatisfaction with Russia. The recent CSTO conference further indicated Armenia’s anger toward the situation. The Armenian Prime Minister refused to sign the joint declaration due to the lack of clear stands on the Karabakh issues. Meanwhile, the opposition party also protested to demand Armenia quit CSTO. As much as Armenia will remain close to Russia, the relationship’s future remains a question.
At the same time, Armenia has also been seeking outside support beyond Russia. The visit of Speaker Pelosi of the US has given Armenians hope that the country could be supported by outside powers other than Russia. Yerevan has also tried to seek rapprochement with Turkey, a historical adversary. Armenia was invited to the Antalya Security Conference, and the Foreign Minister of both countries met and discussed normalizing the relationship. These are all clear signs that Armenia seeks other sources to solve the long-lasting Karabakh issues, thus making Russia’s presence less relevant.
The outside power also plays a more vital role in the region, taking away Russia’s leverage in the Caucasus. One of the most prominent players in regional affairs is, in fact, Turkey. Turkey and Armenia have historical feuds, from territorial disputes to Armenian Genocide issues. Azerbaijan, however, maintained a close relationship with Turkey. Turkey’s primary energy source is practically from the Caspian Sea and the pipeline in the region. Turkey has a strong interest in and willingness to mingle with regional issues.
Turkey is a crucial player in the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. Turkey and Azerbaijan’s close relationship meant that Turkey provided military and political support to the Baku government, and Turkey trained the troops and provided weapon supplies to the Azerbaijan forces. In the recent conflict in Karabakh, Turkey actively called out the United States statement on the war while also criticizing Armenia for provocation. Turkey’s role in the competition should not be underestimated.
Furthermore, Russian reliance on Turkey and Azerbaijan has added significant limitations to Russia’s effort to enforce its influence. Turkey is shifting toward the hub for Russian oil exports. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea access has made them vital for Russia’s energy exports, and Russia recently reached a new trade agreement with Azerbaijan in natural gas. With Turkey and Azerbaijan becoming critical of the Russian economy, Moscow has to weigh in on the scale of participation in the Caucasus.
Russia still sees itself as a massive empire with strong influence over the neighboring regions. The failure in Ukraine shattered this dream. Russians lack power and influence in the Caucasus, and Turkey further erodes Russia’s diplomatic status. This makes it impossible for Russia to facilitate substantial talks with the Caucasus countries. As the tension rises again in Karabakh, Moscow will be slowly sidelined in this conflict.
