A coup orchestrated by the Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, with international support may take place if Lula wins the second round of presidential elections on October 30.
“Only God can get me out of there” and “there are only three possible outcomes to the election: Prison, death or victory”. Bolsonaro’s statements of a coup in Brazil have made news all over the world. However, these threats against democracy have been more evident, as the military report to recognize Lula’s victory in the first round has not yet been released.
Today, two days before the election results, a letter written by 31 US congressmen was delivered to the US President, Joe Biden, expressing their “growing concern” in regards to Bolsonaro’s respect for the election results. This is after a resolution to recognize Brazil’s second-round winner, authored by Democratic senators Bernie Sanders and Tim Kaine did pass in the Senate. Also, members of the European parliament urged the European Union to monitor Brazil’s elections.
However, there are many who believe that Republicans may still support Bolsonaro regardless of the outcome. This is due to the US foreign policy designed for Latin America, in which Democrat’s campaign is against anti-democratic leaders and Republican’s is openly against leftist leaders. Several Congressmen, including Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and the possible Republican president candidate in the upcoming election, Ronald DeSantis’ statements indicated that leftist governments in Latin America will not prevail.
Rubio, the so-called “Secretary of State for Latin America” during Trump’s term, has declared that “toprotect the safety and security of our region, we must change course immediately, and that means no more pandering to leftists” after Colombia turned left in 2022.
Therefore, it would be risky for Republicans not to support a right-wing government in Brazil to defeat Lula, whose legacy of political and economic integration in the region has been eagerly awaited. Especially now, since you would need more fingers on your hands to count the countries that are center left/left in Latin America. There are also significant partisan interests at stake in Bolsonaro’s campaign to remain in power, including his promise to privatize the Brazilian oil company, Petrobras, whereas Lula has assured that it will be renationalized.
Republican’s influence in Latin America
The last Republican administration, chaired by Donald Trump, opened old wounds by attacking leftist governments again, since the US supported military coups during the cold war in Latin America.
Examples include the fraud of the Organization of American States (OAS) in the elections of Bolivia, which backed the deposition of Evo Morales in 2019, new economic sanctions against Cuba and Nicaragua in the same year as well as the attempted coup against President Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela in 2020. Also, the secretive collaboration of the US Department of Justice in the disqualification of former President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva to run for reelection in 2018, followed by his imprisionment.
Nevertheless, the timing for the second round of elections in Brazil may make it difficult to attain the results Bolsonaro desires, as his biggest supporters, namely Trump and his former White House chief strategist, Steve Bannon, are responding to lawsuits in American courts. Other Congressmen are currently focused on their midterm campaigns taking place nine days after the Brazilian elections.
The Brazilian President’s strategy
Bolsonaro, however, plays a double game should he not receive Republican support now by strengthening the ties between Brasilia and Moscow.
This is possible due to the new cold war, in which confusion is generated by the resignification of Russia, since the dualist image of its president, Vladimir Putin, gives him political advantage: It attracts anti-American imperialism’s supporters for being ex-communist, while orbiting in the capitalist hierarchical field from the oligarchs.
Thus, the safest bet for the Republicans is to be willing to exterminate the forces behind leftists in Latin America to avoid the Russian sphere of influence. Conversely, it is more useful for the far right Brazilian President to portray Putin as capitalist, in order to explain their relation to his voters. A way of doing this is by continuing the trade between the two countries and becoming true to the BRICS principle of non-interference.
After Washington urged Bolsonaro to cancel his trip to meet Putin in February, not only did he visit him, but he declared “in solidarity with Russia.” Brazil voted against the resolution that deplored the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly, Bolsonaro alleging neutrality in the country. He also condemned the economic sanctions against Russia in July, claiming that they “did not work”. In September, Brazil abstained from a UN draft Council resolution condemning Russia’s proclaimed annexation of four Ukrainian territories.
By rivaling Biden, Bolsonaro pleases both Republicans and the Kremlin. His “up for grabs” campaign could seriously unbalance the new cold war configuration, so both the US and Russia would also need him as an important ally.
In order to make sense of the new world disorder, in which ironically, Russian influence in Brazil is promoted by the far right, questions about whether sovereignty and democracy could be achieved in Latin American politics remain. Nevertheless, if Lula wins and complete his term in power, the region will be able to expose its autonomy and demonstrate that freedom in Brazil can actually be free.
