Brazil is set to vote for its next president this October. The incumbent Jair Bolsonaro will be looking to defend his presidency in the face of a stubborn resistance provided by the veteran leader and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. With violence, promises and allegations aplenty, the stage is set for what is to be the most important election since 1985, where much more is on the line than just popular votes and political careers.
An election like no other
Brazil formally transitioned from a military dictatorship to a democracy after the 1985 elections which saw the country elect its first civilian president. Since then, Brazil has successfully remained a democracy, effectively keeping the military in its barracks. Albeit certain challenges, the country has maintained strong institutions that have upheld the principles of democracy. While it has faced many challenges on the road to establishing this democratic setup, the upcoming elections in October are set to be the biggest test of these institutions in Brazil’s democratic past.
The 2022 elections reflect upon a nation divided. The candidates themselves represent this divide. While the far-right President Bolsonaro has rallied people around his intense rhetoric of familial values, pro-gun policies and mysoginistic and homophobic tirades; the leftist Lula has tried to shift the focus towards the woeful economic state of the country, environmental degradation, authoritarian shift under the Bolsonaro regime and the menace of growing political violence.
An administration of broken promises
While he promised to turn Brazil into a great, prosperous and free country, President Bolsonaro has failed to deliver on most counts, leading a regime of broken promises and poor administration.
The rate of inflation has grown tremendously over the last four years, rising from 3.7% in 2018 to 8.3% in 2021. The Bolsonaro administration has also failed to tame the unemployment rate which stands at 14.4% as of 2021, adding 2.1% to the figure it inherited in 2018. The woeful economic condition has only been worsened by a very poor state response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Bolsonaro’s dismissal of Covid-19 as a “little flu” is reflective of the regime’s callousness and gross mismanagement, as Brazil reported a total of 685,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic, registering one of the worst responses in the world. The administration which had vowed to rid the country of corruption has also failed to deliver on this promise, often accused of corruption themselves. Bolsonaro, too, has come under the scanner for allegedly misappropriating his workforce’s wages during his 30 year tenure as a lawmaker in the lower house of congress. His family’s finances have also come under scrutiny after a Brazilian news outlet reported that he and his relatives purchased at least 51 of the 107 homes in cash, over a period of three decades.
Bolsanaro’s handling of the Amazon Rainforest has also drawn criticism from all over the world. The intense rate of clearing of the Amazon has left the rainforest at a critical point, risking the chances of a “dieback” with an estimate of 17%-20% of the rainforest currently destroyed.
Furthermore, Bolsonaro has contributed to a culture of violence that has been brewing up in Brazil since his election in 2018. He has previously made claims to rid the country of left-wing “criminals” and has openly used violent symbolism for conveying this message to his supporters. Adding to violent rhetoric, Bolsonaro, an avid supporter of gun ownership, has issued more than a dozen decrees loosening restrictions on gun laws for civilians. The result is a steep growth in gun ownership across the country leading to an estimated 4.4 million privately owned firearms in Brazil as of June 2022.
Instances of political violence have soared in Bolsonaro’s presidency. The first half of 2022 has alone seen a staggering 32% increase in instances of political violence with the number set to increase due to the ensuing election period.
Whither democracy?
Former president Lula has provided a stubborn resistance to Bolsonaro’s populist rhetoric in the run-up to elections in October. The recent poll data suggests a close contest with Lula taking the edge over Bolsonaro in the first round on October 2. However, Lula is predicted to fall short of the fifty percent mark which will lead to a second round of voting between the two frontrunners. While Lula is heavily backed to win the presidential election, it remains to be seen how Bolsonaro and his supporters will react once the results are declared. The incumbent president has criticised the electoral system calling it vulnerable and prone to fraud. He had previously stated that he will not indulge in an electoral “farce”, saying “only God will remove me from power”. These statements have led to growing concerns that Bolsonaro might not accept the result of the elections if it is unfavourable to him, as he has recurretly said, hinting towards the possibility of voter fraud.
While Bolsonaro has also made these statements previously during his 2018 election campaign, what makes the current election different is his advocacy for involving the military in the electoral process. Conveying his concerns regarding electoral fraud in a briefing to a convoy of diplomats in July, Bolsonaro argued for involving the Brazilian military to secure transparency in elections. The leaders of Brazil’s armed forces have backed this view, raising similar doubts regarding integrity of the electoral system, despite little evidence of past fraud. Earlier addressing a rally in Rio de Janeiro, he told his supporters: “The army is on our side”.
These developments are rather concerning considering Brazil’s brutal and very recent history of military dictatorship. However unlikely, the possibility of a return to military dictatorship will have severe consequences for democracy not only in Brazil but also in South America, which may lead to autocratic leaders propping up in other parts of the region. While chances of a military coup can be ruled out on accounts of Bolsonaro not having enough institutional support to carry out his will, the issue of widespread political violence looms large. The lead up to the October elections has seen a stark rise in political violence. A Lula supporter was reportedly shot dead in a politically motivated attack by a Bolsonaro supporter earlier in July. The instances of political violence have only risen in recent years and are highly likely to grow further as the elections come closer. Bolsonaro’s political rhetoric has managed to create a certain mob mentality among his supporters which is critically against the tenets of democracy. On September 7, 2021, tens of thousands of his supporters rallied against the Supreme Court protesting the mandates against the Bolsonaro government. While no instances of violence were reported from the incident, this does not leave out the possibility of organised violent attacks in the future. As he has previously acknowledged, losing political power can mean criminal indictment for him. Hence, Bolsonaro could very well rally his supporters to either hold onto power or hold onto his mass support base in case he loses the elections.
While Lula’s supporters will be hoping for a first round majority win to dispel the troubles of post-election violence, Bolsonaro’s supporters will consider a loss as part of a conspiracy against their leader and will likely rally against the democratic institutions of the country, possibly taking the violent route. Whatever the result may be, the October elections are set to be the toughest test for democracy yet, one that holds the capacity of changing the course of democracy in Brazil forever.
