Aside from the monsoon coming in waves leaving hapless Pakistan looking like an inland sea, Pakistan also has the mighty Indus serving as a spine and its huge tributaries fanning out through its most productive province of Punjab — the name itself meaning five waters.
The monsoon season is short so the fertile soil is irrigated by means of a network of canals feeding the province. The water is vital and thus the prospect of India building a dam at the head of any of these rivers without an equitable solution for sharing could lead to war. As it is, the river Ravi runs almost dry as it reaches Lahore close to the Indian border.
To return to the floods this year caused by an unusual phenomenon: The normal course of the monsoon takes the moisture laden winds north from the Bay of Bengal, then unable to traverse the high Himalayas, they are pushed west along the foothills, shedding water as they rise all the way across India into Pakistan. By the time they reach the latter, they have lost most of their moisture leaving Pakistan a very short rainy season … over the latter parts of August and early September.
Global warming has changed things. This year the moisture laden air from the Bay of Bengal was hot enough to prevent precipitation, jamming it up against the Himalayas. As more monsoon winds collected in the rear, these were forced on to an alternative route directly westwards, racing across the middle of India without impediment until the Hindu Kush mountains in Pakistan. So it was that all the collected moisture got dumped on to Pakistan. If this is a harbinger of the future under global warming, the rich croplands of Uttar Pradesh are in danger. Do they also have irrigation canals in their future like the Punjab?
Pakistan’s other source of moisture is the Arabian Sea, and this year a depression i.e. an intense low-pressure system settled in it bringing heavy rain to coastal provinces as early as June; all of which was exacerbated by extreme heat. Temperatures in May soared as high as 51C in Jacobabad as an example. Hotter air carries more moisture and this heatwave continued through April and May. Moreover swollen rivers from greater glacial melt up high in the Himalayas have not helped.
Pakistan thus must plan for the future. Flood control measures are not unknown in the country, and perhaps an appropriately irrigated Balochistan could become another granary for the country — if only the politicians can stop quarreling long enough to listen to the cries of the flood victims.
Nettlesome politicians on both sides of the border, and the subcontinent sheds its tears in floods. A tragedy if ever there was one.