From pledging to make the country a pariah state to fist-bumping with an alleged murderer shrouded as a crown prince, the US foreign policy has indeed covered the whole circle around Saudi Arabia. I mean, with all due respect to Mr. Biden, this is not the first time the US has cast duplicity in the global diplomatic arena. Whether imposing tariffs on China to inhibit its drive to economic supremacy or throwing away the nuclear deal with Iran to assert a macho image – the sight is practically a cliche at this point. Thus, the deplorable gesture was not much of a surprise to me as to my counterparts across the Atlantic. Well, we all know what dragged the mighty president from the White House to the doorstep of a human rights abuser, accused by the US intelligence agencies of the murder of multiple dissidents – including the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Nonetheless, I have to pose just one question: Is the American policy (and economy) this weak that a president hastily overruns his promises as soon as the midterm elections approach?
I admit, I already know the answer. Sure the year-on-year US inflation in June bypassed expectations. Sure the abnormal global oil prices are suffocating domestic consumers. And Russia is still grinding through Ukraine toward a war of attrition – throwing the western alliance into jeopardy. But the American economy is recovering. The fed may pull the cord tight enough to spark a recession, but the policymakers are still gripping the steering wheel. Then let us assume that the Biden visit is actually to lure the Saudi Kingdom to pump more crude into the global market to ease price pressures. But can Saudi Arabia override Russia – its core partner in the OPEC+ alliance? And will Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) casually overlook the allegations by the United States; its haphazard withdrawal of support from the Yemen war? The answer could be as complex as this peculiar visit while Europe struggles to contain a belligerent Russia. But I believe the answer might be straightforward: the fear of Iran.
The detour to Israel before landing in Riyadh was not just convenient – but also symbolic. The nuclear deal with Iran has been in the air since last year as mediations have trudged with no objective achievement. European diplomats have continually warned that Iran is mere weeks away from developing a nuclear missile. And after wasting a year on hyping hopes to revive the deal, Mr. Biden is putting a facade by projecting defiance, stating that the US would use “all elements of national power” available to impede Iran’s path to a nuclear arsenal. Well we all witnessed how that turned out to be in the eclipsing years of the Trump era. This declaration might be an implicit warning to Iran, a reminder that the clock is ticking on the nuclear deal. Yet, time is in favor of Iran rather than the United States.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed the oil prices up in spades. A price cap on the Russian oil supply is in a discussion. However, expert analysts have warned that an experimental mechanism without global consensus could edge petroleum prices by twofold. The situation favors Iran – one of the founding members of the OPEC alliance. While sanctions would still prove like an albatross to Iran, the US would eventually get pressured by Europe to ease restrictions on Iranian oil to ease market pressure. That may be why Biden is trying to hedge Saudi Arabia back as an ally – to act as the all-weather traditional partner pumping oil to satisfy the US means in the Middle East without any substantial economic consequence. That period, unbeknownst to the United States, has long departed.
Saudi Arabia – alongside the OPEC+ alliance – would hit pre-pandemic production levels next month. Earlier in May, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reiterated that Riyadh was already pumping close to maximum capacity. He instead retorted that the industry should do more to enhance the refining capacity. As global recession fears could plummet demand shortly, I believe Saudi Arabia would not want a repeat of the oil price war of 2020 by unilaterally crossing Russia to pump more oil under US dictation. Highly unlikely when we account that Saudi Arabia’s oil-driven economy has expanded by 9.6% in the first quarter – its fastest growth rate in a decade.
Ultimately, Biden’s visit might prove to be a catalyst for the Abraham Accords 2.0 i.e. the normalization of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. It may also salvage the US alliance with Saudi Arabia to dent China’s growing influence in the Middle East. But this visit has showcased a reality that (ironically) was never really obscure. A fact that any US president – Biden or Trump, Democrat or Republican – would allow a pass on sheer abuse of human rights and freedom (even murder and genocide) to gain economic and diplomatic leverage. Whether it is the blood of Jamal Khashoggi or Shereen Abu Aqleh, or whether the freedom of Palestinians or Saudi citizens, US diplomacy is a sham in the name of human rights and justice.
Russia continues to ravage innocent Ukrainians. Mr. Biden recently termed it a genocide, tagged Putin as a ‘War Criminal’ and promised to hold him accountable for his crimes. Putting every bias, every prejudice aside, ask yourself: what guarantees that a few years forward, Putin would not get harmonized like MBS? If it is hard to picture, ponder over the words Ms. Hatice Cengiz – Khashoggi’s fiancée – tweeted with the photo of Biden and MBS, emulating the thoughts of her fiancé: “Is this the accountability you promised for my murder?”
