It is hard to know what Chinese leaders think about the Russia-Ukraine war. Based on official statements, foreign ministry spokespersons’ comments, and limited discussions on Chinese social media, one can make the following observations about how the war has affected China’s worldview.
1) China sees a hostile US-led West that is determined to defend its dominant position in the international order.
2) China sees its own vulnerability to Western sanctions in a potential war over Taiwan.
3) China sees itself a victim as Western powers are shifting responsibility for ending the Russia-Ukraine war to China.
Such perceptions will have profound impact on Chinese policies. The Chinese view of the world has become more pessimistic, not just because an ideology-based new cold war seems to have returned, but because the Chinese feel that the West will not treat China fairly and objectively.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western governments and media have described the conflict as that between democracy and autocracy. An undemocratic China, not a party to the conflict, has become a scapegoat in the Western narrative about the conflict.
Beijing has conflictual interests in the crisis: It opposes war in principle and has reiterated respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, but it values Russia’s geopolitical importance more — Beijing considers Moscow a critical partner in resisting US efforts to counter China.
Washington has exerted much public pressure, even thinly veiled threat, for Beijing to join the US-led campaigns against Russia, but has offered no enticements to China. Those who claim China could easily change Russia’s behavior may be overstating China’s clout and ignoring Russia’s agency and interests.
The Chinese are suspicious of US motives. As Miss Liu Xin, a well-known English-language TV anchor in China, tweeted in March about the US intentions: “Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?”
The Biden administration continues to view China as the largest national security challenge despite the ongoing war, as evidenced in the Department of Defense’s 2022 National Defense Strategy and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s much anticipated China policy speech. Biden’s May 2022 trip to South Korea and Japan underscored his administration’s policy to curtail China’s influence through beefing up alliances and promoting the new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
From Beijing’s perspective, a weakened Russia is not in China’s interest, because then China would have to face a hostile US alone. Geopolitically, China cannot and will not abandon Russia.
Despite some worries about “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow,” the Russia-Ukraine war has little impact on Beijing’s long-term policy towards Taiwan. China is not looking for an opportunity to attack Taiwan. Its Taiwan policy seems clear and consistent, that is to seek peaceful unification.
Beijing assumes that the power and time are on its side, and Taiwan will return to the motherland when China becomes more powerful. So, the unification of China and Taiwan, if it ever happens, is a long-term project.
China’s 2005 Anti-Secession Law outlines the conditions under which the military force will be used as the last resort to achieve unification. Taiwan independence is the primary casus belli. But most people in Taiwan believe that Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is already independent, and there is no need to declare independence twice.
Few people believe a cross-strait war will break out anytime soon, but the danger of miscalculation always exists. Washington is providing Taiwan with advanced weapons while doing little to promote dialogue between Taipei and Beijing. Meanwhile, the PLA fighter jets are buzzing Taiwan on a daily basis, threatening and alienating the Taiwanese.
The Ukraine crisis will certainly make Beijing think twice whether it wants to use force on Taiwan. Beijing is reportedly shocked by the poor performance of Russian military and surprised by the formation of an international coalition against Russia, so it is unlikely to put itself in a vulnerable position.
Following its own version of “one China” which is different from Beijing’s “one China” principle, Washington has a de facto “one China, one Taiwan” policy. The State Department updated its Taiwan factsheet online and deleted key components of America’s long-standing “one China” policy, including “the US does not support Taiwan independence” and “the US acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China.” Biden’s repeated statements about defending Taiwan have added more confusions and concerns in the Taiwan Strait. Washington is undoubtedly playing the Taiwan card against Beijing. Some even suggest that Washington is goading Beijing to fire the first shot.
The United States and China must work together to end the Ukraine crisis soon while building trust simultaneously. Ceasefire should be the top priority. Xi Jinping must use whatever influence he has to persuade Putin to end fighting now. The Biden administration should stop delivering more weapons to Ukraine, risking protraction and escalation of the war. This is not going to be easy since lack of trust is the very reason Washington and Beijing are less willing to cooperate now. Therefore, political will, courage and wisdom are urgently needed from both sides before the Russia-Ukraine war causes more damage and before US-China relations further deteriorates.
The United States and China have squandered opportunities for cooperation in recent years; they should not commit another error now for the sake of international peace and improved bilateral relations.
