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The Ongoing Political Chaos in Pakistan

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March 7, was the turning point in the recent political history of Pakistan. Since then there have been major transformations at the social and political level. It was the evening of March 7, when then Prime Minister Imran Khan received a sealed letter from the Pakistani ambassador to America Assad Majeed. The letter contains the record of detailed conversation between the US Assistant Secretary of the State for South and Central Asia, David Lu and Pakistani ambassador, Assad Majeed. As  per the government sources, as recorded in the letter, during the conversation, the US representative David Lu used a threatening language against Pakistan. According to Khan, during the brief conversation, the US representative David Lu used the term “VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE”, which was not even yet proceeded by the opposition in the Parliament. Hence, tjis is the reason why former Prime Minister Imran Khan links the VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE and the letter he received a day earlier before the motion was put forward.

Mr. Khan holds a view that by orchestrating the motion of VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE, America punished him for his two-day visit to Russian Federation especially at a critical time when Russia announced Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Mr. Khan publically said this weaving the sealed letter in his hand during his speech at the Parade Ground, Islamabad on March 27. Khan told hid supporters that the US representative David Lu is behind the motion of VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE and vowed to fight to protect the dignity of his nation in the face of US interference. During the brief conversation with Pakistani ambassador, Mr. Lu warned “If the VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE failed to topple Khan’s government then Pakistan must get prepared to face graveyard consequence s.”

By taking into account the above-mentioned scenario; Khan vowed to fight for the dignity and freedom of his country from the foreign interference. Hence, by mainstreaming the narrative of nation pride and national freedom during his rallies ; Khan remained successful in attracting massive support from the people. Hence, the ongoing chaos and polarized transformation at the socio-political level can be understood in three major domains.

  1. Military declared “Neutrality”

Soon after the success of VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE motion against on April 12, the public support for Khan reached the peak level. Likewise, during his televised addressed after his fall, Khan asked the Military to take the notice of American interference. A week later due to Public outcry, the Inter Service Public Relation (ISPR), a military watchdog explained their position by saying that there was no direct interference but a conspiracy. Moreover, in its press-release, ISPR also stressed that army should not be dragged into politics and hence, declared Army as “neutral” on this matter.

Unfortunately, the word “Neutrality” didn’t appease the angry supporters of Khan. Soon after the ISPR’s press-release, Khan’s supporters took the twitter and the word “#neutrality” remained on top trending for days. Moreover, by examining the intense political polarization the Army refrained from making public statements on the issue in order to keep the institution “neutral“. However, as key and important decision-maker, the sanctity of Army as an institution became a heated debate on social media. For the first time in the recent history, the Armed Forces of Pakistan as an institution began facing the challenge of protecting its sanctity due to exacerbating polarization.

  • Public Mobilization

By mainstreaming the narrative of “American interference”, Mr. Khan remained successful in dragging huge crowd to his rallies in big and small cities of the country. During his rallies, Khan resurfaced the American interference narrative to pressure both the coalition government and security establishment to hold fresh elections as soon as possible. According to both official and unofficial sources; there is a division in the security establishment regarding the VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE motion against Khan. Hence  due to immense polarization at the social and political level, the Military establishing is seriously thinking about the formation of technocratic government to pave the way for elections in the coming months. Nonetheless, it goes without saying that due to the rising support for Imran Khan; the opposition-led coalition government has already lost its legitimacy. Likewise, the rising political polarization at the socio-structural level is threatening the security of the country.

  • Khan’s Long game Plan

By organizing successful rallies one after another in major and small cities; Khan succeeded in uniting his supporters towards his early election demand. The massive socio-political polarization has already shocked the incumbent coalition government to pay attention to his key demands. However, Khan actual plan id to pressure the Military Establishment (the Power brokers in the country) to conduct the fresh elections in the country. On the contrary, there is also a huge disagreements among the coalition as Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PLMN) is leading the show for now. But the other key coalition partners such as Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Mutahida Quomi Movement (MQM) arw the ruling coalition with certain key political demands. MQM has already warned the ruling coalition; if their demands are not met on emergency basis then they will quit the coalition.

Similarly, Mr. Khan has already declared the last week of May and the coming month critical as he told his supporters to wait for his call to march towards the Capital Islamabad. According to various polls especially poll recently conducted by the Arab News Media Network, since the VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE, Mr. Khan’s popularity has increased to an unprecedented level.  Hence, both the incumbent ruling coalition and the military establishment knows that Khan’s popularity cannot be contested. According to experts, Khan’s main strategy is to pressure the Military Establishment to maximum level to conduct the early elections as soon as possible.

Perhaps, his call for long march towards capital Islamabad is a part of this long-game strategy. Moreover, the massive polarization in the socio-political level and rising economic turmoil is pressing both the Military Establishment and ruling coalition to succumb to early election demand of Imran Khan. In a nutshell, the early elections seems the only way to sway away the ongoing political turmoil and menace of soaring civil war in the country. Just an hour earlier, Former Prime Minister Imran has called on his supporters to march towards Capital Islamabad on March 25, to participate in what he calls “Azadi March/ Freedom Rally”. Indeed, this march will have grounded impact on the politics of Pakistan in the years to come.

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South Asia

Politics of Pakistan: A Riot or an Opportunity

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On 14th August, 1947 Pakistan appeared on the world map as the largest independent Muslim state of that time. Sixty-five million people out of Ninety-five million population were Muslims. Despite of the shared religion of its majority, Pakistan is still struggling to build a national identity. Earlier, linguistic and cultural diversity were a hurdle but, in the Common Era political imbalance, rivalry and groupings left Pakistan with nothing but social, political and economic crisis with no future of stability.

Division of Sub-continent into India, West Pakistan and East Pakistan was a kick start to the largest demographic movement in history. Unfortunately, Muhammad Ali Jinnah died when Pakistan was less than a year old. The politics of Pakistan has not been less than a roller coaster ride. Till date the State has been ruled by 27 different Prime Ministers where some of them ruled twice and even thrice. Adding to that, the state has been under dictatorship four times since its independence. This political chaos has badly affected the economy of Pakistan. Not that Pakistan is a barren landlocked country with no reservoirs or no beneficial source to strengthen the economy, but, the political riot has played a vital role in paralyzing the social and economic bodies. Pakistan’s politicians have obediently followed the tradition of blame game since independence. Political representatives have always considered it necessary to blame the opponents for unstable environment in rather than being united against the state issues. The truth is that none of the political party could ever succeed in fulfilling the objectives of their five-year plan.

Due to sudden change of government, corruption, fragile institutions, the country’s economy suffered harsh weather. In 1980’s the economic growth was an impressive 6.3% which had a sharp decline during 1990’s and dropped to 4.9%. By the end of dictatorship the growth decelerated to 1.7% in 2008 and political instability accelerated to -2.4%. During the regime of PPP, the Nation succeeded in nothing but increase in economic instability, rise in corruption, inflation, and unemployment. PPP has set Karachi as a portrait of their inefficiency which the city witnesses every year during monsoon season. In 2013, the biggest political parties of Pakistan, PMLN and PTI fought the elections and undesirable results ended in a 126 days long dharna in the Capital of Pakistan with the inclusion of rallies, aggressive speeches and corruption cases against the opponents to hold them responsible and throw them out. The dramatic political unrest forced the country to lose hundreds of millions, foreign trust, foreign investment as well as paralyzing the Capital of the state. Nawaz Sharif was proven guilty and sent to jail, PMLN succeeded in making the institutions fool and Nawaz Sharif flew to the UK for medical treatment. In 2018, the ineligibility of Nawaz Sharif, Panama leaks and support of the number of people of the nation gave Imran Khan a chance to win the majority vote in National assembly. Forced to habit, the opposition instead of efficiently working with the government for the welfare of state, jointly formed PDM to demolish PTI’s government. Protests, long march, boycotts became the fate of Pakistan and which couldn’t affect the government much but, to lead to vote of no confidence in April, 2022 which resulted in Imran Khan’s removal. PTI blames PDM for joining hands with US in their regime change strategy. Even during PTI’s government, the instable economy was in the destiny of Pakistan. Currently, Shahbaz Sharif is the Prime Minister of the State and the economic conditions are nowhere near to a betterment; a total chaos.

The fake promises of every government has left the nation with nothing but empty bank accounts, economic collapse, inflation, extreme foreign debt, intolerance and extremism among its own people. The prime reason to every government’s failure is more or less their self- priorities. It was and is never about the betterment of state and its people but the authority, rivalry and seat. Every government without any discrimination focused on plans which would temporarily benefit the Nation during their tenure but, later due to huge foreign debt and IMF instructions, the country suffers inflation and hurdles in development of the country. Moreover, every new government finds the work of the former useless and terminate the projects, plans and policies initiated by them. This restricts the foreign investors from huge investments as more political instability leads to more economic deceleration.

Another huge drawback is that every government demands the state’s institutions to work their way, for example; the security departments’ ultimate duty is to protect the state from internal and external threats but what they do nowadays is to arrest the opponent leaders, raid their houses, protect red zone and blindly work under government’s thumb.

The biggest threat to Pakistan is its own poisonous politics. The political parties do not find their victory in providing the Nation with excellence and betterment but, the lust of power and hatred has forced the public to witness a psychotic political behavior. Election campaigns, days of protests in Islamabad, societal unrest and cyber-attacks have become a trend which has divided the Nation into groups.

Pakistan is on the verge of losing everything. IMF and other states have either denied or are delaying in providing aid to the country and the major reason is the political unrest but, a bitter reality is that politics cannot be ignored as it plays a prime role in connecting Pakistan on national and international levels. Political stability shall be the ultimate goal as it would help in formation of beneficial policies and would allow the institutions to work in a normal way which would only make Pakistan a healthy developed state. This 75th year and the years coming ahead can be good for Pakistan if elections are truly conducted on their time and the losing parties instead of creating a chaos, aids the ruling party in running the affairs of Pakistan smoothly.

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Seventy-Five Years of India’s Independence

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If anyone had asked Jawaharlal Nehru as he made his midnight speech on August 15 and freedom dawned, how he visualized India 75 years hence, he would have described a Fabian paradise of equality and plenty.  Would he be disappointed?

The neo-liberal agenda, far removed from socialism, introduced by Manmohan Singh a few decades later was designed to invigorate the economy.  He lowered taxes, privatized state-run industries and encouraged foreign investment.  It did spark an economic boom but the withdrawal of the state from healthcare, education, banking and credit made it a country obsessed with profit.

If cities boomed, rural areas were left to stagnate.  GDP grew but the growth favored the upper 50 percent — the lower half did not enjoy a similar access to education or healthcare or have the same mobility.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), a quarter of the world’s undernourished people now live in India and a fifth survive on less than $1.90 per day.  WFP has been working in India since 1963, and it reports that in the last two decades per capita income tripled yet the minimum dietary intake fell, and the gap between rich and poor actually increased despite this high economic growth.

Nehru’s ideal was a country of different faiths and different ethnicities, speaking many languages but living harmoniously and sharing a common Mother India.  Instead, unbalanced growth at the cost of the lower half of the population has led to scapegoating and the major target is the sizable Muslim minority.

The blame game now includes historical revisionism blaming Mughal emperors from India’s glory days when the exquisite Taj Mahal was constructed, the arts flourished and India generated almost a quarter of the World GDP.

This game also chides the Hindu Rajput princesses that Mughals married or the respected Hindu advisers that served the Emperors.  The much decried last great Mughal emperor in this blame game is Aurangzeb who extended the empire to almost India’s southern tip, ruling a vast area stretching into Afghanistan and its borderlands in Central Asia. 

The Aurangzeb narrative excludes a simple fact:  the majority of Aurangzeb’s advisers were Hindu.  A Hindu chronicler, Bhimsen Saxena, penned a memoir titled Tarikh-i-Dilkusha or a history that warms the heart, describes life as a soldier in service to the Emperor for more than a quarter century.  He may rail at Aurangzeb’s tactical or strategic errors but is forever loyal.  Hindu generals, nobles and advisers … they were not on the outside looking in, they were an integral part. 

For centuries, religion was not a divider.  Adherents of the two principal faiths worked together, lived together, married each other, and fought together including in 1857, during what the British called the Indian Mutiny and Indians refer to as the First War of Independence.

Thereafter, the British instituted systems and processes to develop rivalry and resentment, including quotas for intake into the prestigious Indian Civil Service as well as the lower level jobs.  The rivalry progressed into mistrust, then riots and killings, eventually into two countries fighting wars, and then to a nuclear stand-off and a divided Kashmir.

North versus South, East versus West, a continent is difficult to govern.  Have we heard this story before?

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The two Punjabs

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Even in the midst of tensions between India and Pakistan, people to people linkages between both countries – with both Punjabs (Indian and Pakistani) as key stakeholders – have given reason for cautious optimism.

While cultural commonalities and the emotional attachment on both sides has been the driving force for Punjab-Punjab initiatives, the potential economic benefits of improved relations have been repeatedly reiterated not just by the business communities, but political leaders (especially from Indian Panjab)

In recent years, ties between both countries have steadily deteriorated. After the Pulwama terror attack in 2019, economic linkages between both countries have got severely impacted, and this has taken its toll on the economy of Panjab (India). India imposed tariffs on Pakistani imports, and revoked Most Favoured Nation MFN status to Pakistan in February 2019, while in August 2019, trade links via the Wagah (Pakistan) -Attari (India) land crossing were snapped after the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. The suspension of trade ties between both countries has had a serious impact on the economy of the border belt of Punjab (India) with over 9,000 families being impacted as a result of job losses in the tertiary sector.

Developments of the past few months

The one glimmer of hope has been the Kartarpur Religious Corridor which was inaugurated in 2019 (in 2020 this was closed due to the covid 19 pandemic but re-opened in November 2021). The Corridor connects Dera Baba Nanak (Panjab, India) with Darbar Sahib (Kartarpur, Narowal, Pakistan) which is the final resting place of Guru Nanak (the founder of the Sikh faith). Devotees from Panjab (India) can pay obeisance at Darbar Sahib (Kartarpur) without a visa, though they do need to carry their passports. While the number of people crossing over, via the corridor, is way below the initial target of 5000, it has helped in promoting people to people ties as well as re-uniting a number of separated families. There has been a growing demand for easing out visa procedures for individuals over the age of 75 years and those from separated families (some of the individuals reunited at Kartarpur have been issued visas) which has been backed strongly by civil society organisations – as in the past.

 The phase from 2019-2022 has been witness to people to people linkages, especially with regard to religious tourism, but interactions between state governments of both the Punjabs, or what is referred to as ‘paradiplomacy’ unlike earlier years has been restricted. After the re-opening of the corridor in  November 2021, then Chief Minister of Panjab (India) Charanjit Singh Channi, and other political leaders from the state, paid obeisance at Darbar Sahib (Kartarpur), while also flagging the need for resumption of trade via the Wagah-Attari land crossing — though to no avail. 

There have however been calls for resumption of trade from sections of Punjab’s political class, business community as well as farmers from Indian Punjab. Pakistan which has been buying essential commodities including wheat at exorbitant prices could purchase the same from Panjab (India) and the Punjabi farmer could benefit by getting much higher prices for his produce.

Conclusion

In conclusion, even in the midst of strained ties between both countries, the Punjab has played an important role in trying to reduce tensions and build bridges between both countries, and the role of civil society, business community on both sides and the diaspora needs to be acknowledged. In the 75th year of independence while ties between New Delhi and Islamabad remain strained developments of the past few months, in the realm of people to people contact have given reason for hope as a result of the tireless efforts of civil society and some individuals committed to peace. The next stage of this should be easing out of visa regimes especially for certain categories of individuals – specifically those over the age of 75 who want to visit their ancestral homes. Resumption of trade via the Wagah-Attari land crossing will benefit not just Panjab (India) but other parts of North India and the Pakistani consumer. If both countries can focus on giving a greater fillip to people to people linkages and economic ties — with the Punjabs taking the lead – ties  between India and Pakistan could be less frosty.

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