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The Return of Global Inflation: A Threat to Our Interdependent World?

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Soaring commodity price has become a major problem in many countries. When poor people are readjusting their monthly budget to address this price hike, shortage are taking place quite often. Even in Bangladesh, the lines for TCB trucks (subsidized government selling points) are getting bigger and bigger every day. The problem became more severe in past couple of days as Indonesia suddenly imposed ban on Soybean oil resulting in a record Soybean oil price in the history of the country. Within only one year, Soybean oil price has reached to 198 Taka from 135 Taka in Bangladesh. At present the current inflation rate is 6.22% officially while SANEM claimed it to be around 12%.

However, Bangladesh is not an isolated case of soaring commodity price at this moment. It seems inflation has emerged as a global problem affecting most economies. In the era of globalization and interconnectedness, this global inflation is posing a severe threat to our interdependence as it is a product of our reckless decisions, war, pandemic, and superpower rivalries.

Complex Interdependence

Complex Interdependence (CI) is a concept of International Relations and International Political Economy. Simply, it is the complex web of economic dependence and relations among the states and institutions which creates a global economy. The concept was first introduced by Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye in the 1970s. The concept became more relevant in later decades when liberalism became the norm and transnational economy flourished through global value chain and global supply chain. Today, we are living in a world where societies and economies are interconnected beyond the borders.

However, though CI promised peace, it also brought weaknesses. Butterfly or ripple effects are becoming stronger than ever. One small change in the international market is affecting others directly or indirectly.

Return of Global Inflation                                   

Inflation has become a global problem for sometimes now. Most countries are already bearing with this problem. Latest data around the world suggest that inflation rate is  8.5% in the USA, 7% in the UK, and 7.8% in the Eurozone in this year. Apart from country specific rates, the global rate is also growing drastically since last year. The current global inflation rate is 9.2% which has been doubled since the last year according to ILO’s statistics. As a result of growing inflation, commodity price has soared all over the world. Almost all commodity prices have soared to a highest level since 2008. By March 2022, global price of raw materials increased at the rate of 16%.The price of important raw materials such as Iron, Steel and Lithium increased by 243%, 250% and 98% than 2021. Since the Ukraine crisis, the oil price has also skyrocketed to more than $100 per barrel. The prediction for near future is also not rosy. The World Bank forecast is suggesting that energy price will soar over 50% in the coming days resulting in the largest commodity shock since the 1970.

However, the situation further worsened as edible oil price soared again due to Indonesia’s ban on export. Indonesia alone supplies 55% of world’s total palm oil while Malaysia is the second largest supplier with 30% stake. As Indonesia suddenly imposed ban on oil export, it has created a concern over global food price. The production of Soybean is also another issue to consider. Latin America is one of the largest producers of Soybean. But this year, the region failed to meet the expected production. As a result, Soybean oil price in Latin America has already reached to $1900 per metric ton by the last week of April- an all-time high in the history. As a consequence, Argentina halted export registration two months earlier, in March 2022.

However, this is not the first time; the price of Soybean is soaring. Since the trade war between the USA and China, the price of Soybean is increasing due to disruption in supply chain as the USA is the largest exporter of Soybean oil and China is the largest importer of it.

As a result of growing inflation, purchasing power of the common people around the world is decreasing. Longer lines in Dhaka’s TCB selling points are the evidences of this claim. Increasing living cost is also impacting saving rates around the world. By April 2022, savings rate in Eurozone dropped to 13.3%- a record low; the rate was 25% in the first quarter of 2020. Moreover, the latest Indian ban on wheat export will also pose new challenge to the livelihood of the common people. It is worthy of mentioning that India is the second largest wheat exporter.

Why it is happening?

The main reason behind this global inflation and commodity crisis is the disruption of supply chain caused by trade war, pandemic and ongoing Ukraine crisis. Though, the inflation has become visible after the pandemic and has been bolstered by the Ukraine crisis, the root of the problem dates back to the trade war between the USA and China in 2018. The trade war disrupted easy flow of goods around the world, creating a spike in price of necessary commodities. Later, lockdowns and restrictions disrupted supply chain for a long time. The stimulus packages and costly pandemic governance have further bolstered the challenges for governments around the world.

And lastly, the ongoing Ukraine war has ‘fanned’ the flames of global inflation. Both Ukraine and Russia are largest suppliers of many essential commodities. The war and sanctions has disrupted the production and supply of these commodities for uncertain times. The countries are suppliers of 12% of world’s total calories. They are also the major exporter of Sunflower oil, Wheat, and Maize. Russia is also one of the major energy suppliers to the world. As sanctions have cut its supply, shortage has also taken place in the market. As a result, in ripple effect coupling with shortage, the war is adversely affecting the international food market.

Why it is threat?

Liberal ideas came with the promises of better life, dignity, and rights. It also developed interconnected and interdependent economy for everyone promising affordability, availability, prosperity, and peace. But after 30 years, it seems this interconnectedness is heavily reliant on superpower’s behaviors while others are powerless. Superpowers’ reckless policies and rivalries are affecting all other countries.

As a result, this global inflation will create adverse notion about liberal thoughts. It will also create mistrust about the existing system and will compel states to pursue inward policies. The growing ‘export ban’ from various major exporters are evidence of pursuing inward policies. Most importantly, the inflation is putting extra burden of common citizens of the world who are struggling to maintain minimum standard of their life. As the inflation is boosting hunger, poverty, and inequality, it will push de-globalization and anti-globalization debate only. Therefore, it will pose a serious threat to interconnectedness.

Way Forward

Solving this global inflation will require time. Several forecasts suggest that the situation is likely to worsen in coming days with a commodity shock on the way. The only way to solve it is through cooperation between state, business, and related actors. Superpowers and hegemon must acknowledge their responsibilities and avoid reckless decisions that affect the others. In domestic aspect, vigilance against cartel businesses, breaking the monopolies, tax cuts, inclusive development, and strengthening institutions are required. And last but not least, in the age of interdependence, conflict is a costly thing to afford; so diplomacy should take precedence over brute force.

Doreen Chowdhury is a Doctoral Researcher at University of Groningen. Her areas of interest are Comparative Politics, Globalization, South Asian Studies, and Migration Studies.

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Economy

Brick By Brick, BRICS Now a New Bridge for a New World

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Measuring BRICS in single decades, in 2001, BRIC started as an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, and China; Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill claimed that by 2050 the four BRIC economies would come to dominate the global economy. So South Africa was added to BRIC in 2010. The following countries are now expressing interest in joining: Afghanistan, Algeria, Argentina, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe. Is this now the awakening of BRICS+ or BRICS power?

BRICS+ by 2030 will add dozen new members and carve new indices, and by 2040, it will lead to new intellectualism on geopolitics and socio-economies for the super complex 2050 age of smart living.  

Historically, BRICS nations pushed on their people-power agenda over super-power titles. They made extreme value-creation economic models over focusing on powerful military-industrial complexes. They focused on nation-building and avoided special mandates to manage global affairs. They have been on a quest to upgrade them. They were feeding hungry mouths, as they were population rich, constantly up-skilling, and improving value creation as they were SME rich. They kept a steady watch to create multilateralism to uplift humankind.

They, too, made mistakes, as did the rest of the world

In the third decade of the third millennium, come 2020, three transformations erupted. First, futurism changed the rules on the ‘physicality of work’ and created a new imbalance with the ‘mentality of performance’; this has divided the workforce of world; the old system of over a billion commuting daily to the center of a complex maze to arrive daily at the sanctum of the company and create climate change. So now, in response, some 50% of the world’s workforce has chosen to stay away and work remotely in the surroundings of wide-open choices. Furthermore, technology uplifted micro-power-nations and exposed Western economies now stripped naked in bubble baths on slippery floors, they tippy-toe practicing conga-lines

Newly magnified economy: Behold, what microscopes exposed the magnified inner workings of the body. Similarly, the integrated networks have exposed the digital connectivity and working of millions of villages, cities, and nations with additional billions of people to interact, trade, improve grassroots prosperity and create a well-informed and opinionated citizenry. Some 100 years ago, if only 1% of the world’s population knew what was happening, today it is a dozen times more, and by 2030 double again. Why would these numbers change the global economic matrix when translated into micro-trading, micro-manufacturing, and micro-exporting? International opinion today is already strong enough to crush any national opinion of any nation still lingering under the illusion of a self-promoted victory.

When the SME sector already exists within each nation, the global markets are always hungry for good quality goods and services, and the rains of almost free digital technologies make such transformation a quick turnaround. Therefore, mindsets are critically essential; the need to define the difference between the job seeker mindset that builds the organizations and the job creator mindset that originates and creates that organization in the first place.

So what are the lessons, key features, and blueprints in sight?

Mistakes and new lessons: Last many decades, as the new world was rising, Western citizens felt like China experts, and their regular visits to local China towns restaurants in each city misguided them that Laundromat trained Chinese could only produce some chicken fried rice. Ever since the advent of the camera, the East was always projected as poor and dysfunctional; mesmerized by the media coverage during the last many decades, the West was equally convinced that India, a land of only snake charmers and fakirs, finally someday speak better English. The general perceptions about Asia, besides eating rice, if they could ever make cheaper products for the West. The rest is history, mistakes, and lessons.

After the big ding-dong nights of 2000 New Year’s Eve, today’s new story starts from the 20th chapter. Now China and India alone have created some 500 million new entrepreneurs, not by a magic pill or meta-crypto-wand but by National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism, a slow, painful deployment of SMEs across the nation, and by creating mobilization protocols to identify, classify, and digitizing based on multiple factors from type and size to the evaluation of their “respectable” role in future communities and economic factors. This methodology was far more advanced in strategy and stern management over the globalization frenzy from the West, where sudden exporting of manufacturing of the industrial plants to kill manufacturing and destroying the middle class out of the West already declared globalization a great success.

The other mistake is to assume this is an economic or an academic study, at best, like an Oscar Slap on sleepy rotundas occupied with endless printing of money across the Western economies. Instead, this is an entrepreneurial response for the entrepreneurial nations to awaken hidden entrepreneurial talents in up-skilling SMEs and re-skilling manufacturers at national levels.

Recommendations and warnings: No airline can survive with only Flight Engineers and Frequent Flyers stuffed inside the cockpits; that space is only reserved for highly trained pilots. Henceforth, across the world, any economic development of any size, shape, or authority may find other more suitable alternate paths of occupation if they still cannot demonstrate any levels of understanding, applicable skills, or mobilization mastery on the National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism to up-skill exporters and re-skill manufactures and uplift national SME sector as the most prominent economic contributor of the nation. Study the biggest error of economic thinking  

Underestimating the hidden powers of early thinking and starting a tiny unknown SME is a mistake of mindsets; here, entrepreneurialism like a saga unfolds, like a voluminous piece of literature but demanding literacy, understanding the job seeker mindsets and the ability to differentiate with entrepreneurial job creator mindset is already winning half the battle. Study the Mindset Hypotheses

Nations failing to realize the power of the billion SME rising in Asia and still unable to declare a national agenda of national mobilization of SMEs now must acquire an understanding of the 4B Factor: a billion displaced due to the pandemic, a billion replaced due to technology, a billion misplaced in wrong jobs now a billion on starvation watch. Furthermore, this 4 billion ever digitally connected mass of people ever in the history of humankind is now the most significant force of global opinion. Notice nations are already intoxicated with joy over the popularity of their national public opinion while having just an opposite international opinion on the world stage.

Recommendation; everyone is born an entrepreneur; our system chips away at this talent. Nevertheless, 10% to 50% high potential SMEs of any nation once are identified, classified, and digitized within 100 days. The uplifting digital platforms of up-skilling exporters and re-skilling manufacturers will result in 10% to 50% quadrupling their performance, productivity, and profitability. Imagine how much-regimented efforts will activate a positive national economic revolution based on real value creation, uplifting grassroots prosperity. How soon is a nation ready for a significant change? The rest is easy.

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Promoting Economic Security: Enhancing Stability and Well-being

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The stability and well-being of people, communities, and countries are critically dependent on economic security. It covers a range of topics, such as access to necessities, work opportunities, stable incomes, and defense against economic shocks. The need of guaranteeing economic security has increased significantly in the modern world, which is characterized by technical developments, geopolitical shifts, and unexpected disasters. The importance of economic security is examined in this article, along with important tactics for promoting adaptability and preserving people’s quality of life.

The value of economic security to individuals, communities, and countries cannot be overstated. By fostering an atmosphere where people and families can achieve their basic needs without suffering undue stress, it promotes stability. Because of this stability, people can recuperate and start over after severe shocks like economic downturns, natural disasters, or health crises.

Furthermore, economic security contributes to social cohesion by reducing inequality and fostering inclusivity. When individuals feel economically secure, they are more likely to actively participate in society, contribute to their communities, and engage in productive endeavors. This sense of security leads to greater social harmony and a collective feeling of prosperity.

Moreover, economic security is vital for long-term sustainable development. It enables individuals and societies to invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and innovation. These investments drive economic growth, improve overall well-being, and create the foundation for a prosperous future. By ensuring economic security, countries can build resilient and sustainable economies that benefit their citizens and contribute to global progress.

To enhance economic security, several key strategies can be implemented. Firstly, governments and businesses should prioritize diversifying their economies by promoting sectors with growth potential and resilience. By reducing reliance on a single industry or market, countries can mitigate the impact of economic downturns and build a more robust and diversified economy.

Investing in education and skills development is another crucial strategy. Governments and organizations must focus on providing quality education, vocational training, and lifelong learning opportunities. Equipping individuals with the necessary tools and knowledge enables them to adapt to changing economic landscapes and remain competitive in the job market.

Strong social safety nets are necessary to protect people during times of economic upheaval. The most disadvantaged populations should be given priority in the design and implementation of comprehensive social welfare systems by the government. Creating a safety net for all citizens entails implementing programs for income support, healthcare coverage, and unemployment benefits.

Promoting entrepreneurship and innovation can create new opportunities for economic growth and job creation. Governments can support aspiring entrepreneurs by providing access to capital, mentorship programs, and favorable regulatory environments. Embracing technological advancements and fostering a culture of innovation further enhances economic security, particularly in an increasingly digital world.

International cooperation is essential since economic security is a global issue. Cooperation between nations is necessary to advance ethical business practices, lessen economic inequality, and improve financial stability. Initiating discourse, coordinating policy, and assisting nations in economic crises are all important functions of multilateral organizations.

Societies can improve their economic security and create a more secure and prosperous future by putting these strategies into practice: diversifying the economy, investing in education and skills, creating social safety nets, encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation, and fostering international cooperation.

Having economic security is crucial in a world that is uncertain and changing quickly. Governments, corporations, and individuals may all work together to create an environment that promotes economic security by putting a priority on stability, resilience, and inclusivity. We can create a more resilient and prosperous future for everybody through diversity, education, social safety nets, entrepreneurship, and international cooperation. By making investments in financial stability, we build a more just and sustainable world.

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The Impact of Globalization on the South Asian Economy

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Globalization refers to the process by which economies, societies, and cultures from different countries become integrated with one another. The economies of the countries that make up South-East Asia, which include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, have been significantly impacted by the spread of globalization in recent decades. The effects of globalization on the economies of South Asian countries have been mixed, with some positive and some negative results.

Positive Impacts of Globalization on the South Asian Economy

The expansion of South-East Asia’s trade and investment opportunities is one of the aspects of globalization that has had the most positive impact on the region’s economy. Because of its large consumer base, low labor costs, and strategic location, the region has become an attractive destination for foreign investors. As a consequence of this, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Asia has significantly increased, which has led to the development of new industries and the production of new jobs.

The expansion of the service industry in Sout-East Asia can also be attributed to the effects of globalization. South Asian countries have emerged as a hub for the outsourcing of services such as information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing as a result of the emergence of new technologies and the increased availability of skilled labor (BPO). As a direct consequence of this, the area has benefited from an increase in both the number of available jobs and the amount of money it brings.

Last but not least, globalization has facilitated greater cultural interaction and integration throughout South-East Asia. The region possesses a significant cultural legacy, and the advent of globalization has made it possible for South Asian music, films, and cuisine to become popular all over the world. This has not only contributed to a greater awareness of the region’s cultural heritage, but it has also opened up new doors for the travel and hospitality industry.

Negative Impacts of Globalization on the South-East Asian Economy

Even though there have been some positive effects, there have also been some negative effects that globalization has had on the South Asian economy. The widening gap between rich and poor is one of the most pressing problems that we face today. The advantages brought about by globalization have accrued almost entirely to a relatively small number of people, which has contributed to a widening income gap. As a consequence of this, social unrest and a wider gap in incomes have emerged.

Another significant obstacle that has been presented is the displacement of workers and traditional industries. Due to the effects of globalization, many smaller businesses have been forced to shut down, and their employees have been relocated to larger companies that are more productive. As a consequence of this, there has been an increase in unemployment as well as social unrest, particularly in rural areas.

Globalization has contributed to the deterioration of the environment in South Asia. The region has seen a growth in industries such as the textile industry, both of which have had a significant impact on the environment as a result of their expansion. The population’s health and well-being have suffered as a direct result of environmental degradation, which can be traced back to the increased consumption of natural resources and the improper disposal of waste produced by industrial processes.

Conclusion

The economy of the South-East Asian region has been affected in both positive and negative ways by the phenomenon of globalization. While it has resulted in the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers and the widening of income inequality. While it has contributed to the growth of industries and increased cultural exchange, it has also resulted in the displacement of workers. In order to address these challenges, policy interventions that foster inclusive growth, protect the environment, and create new opportunities for the population will be required. By acting in this manner, countries in South Asia will be able to take advantage of globalization’s positive aspects while mitigating some of its more damaging effects.

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