The United States, the United Kingdom and Australia revealed the details of a joint plan aimed at establishing a new fleet of nuclear-powered submarines, in order to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region, within the framework of the (Aukus) agreement of a defensive nuclear nature between the United States of America, Britain and Australia, which  It was announced in December 2021.  Here the question remains, about: Does the Aukus agreement qualify the world for a nuclear war between China, America and the countries allied with them? Whereas, under this agreement known as the “Aukus” agreement, Australia will receive the first nuclear-powered submarines, among at least three by the United States of America.  The allies will also work to form a new fleet that will use the latest advanced technologies, including British-made Rolls-Royce reactors.

 For its part, the United States of America strengthened its alliance with NATO countries in Europe, Japan and South Korea.  In the Asia-Pacific region, or the Indo-Pacific in the American sense, Washington strengthened the Quadruple Security Dialogue Alliance, which also includes Australia, India and Japan, and then the Aukus Nuclear Alliance with the participation of Australia and the United Kingdom.  These two steps are uncomfortable for Beijing and Moscow, which warn that such moves threaten to ignite a new cold war between all parties.  This is what was stated in the report of the Chinese state broadcaster, CCTV, quoting one of the speeches of Chinese President “Xi Jinping”, assuring that:

  “China and Russia need to take more joint measures to protect our security and interests more effectively, and that there is no formal alliance between the two countries.”  However, Chinese President “Xi Jinping” confirmed to his Russian counterpart, Putin, that “this relationship goes beyond even the alliance between the two parties”. Accordingly, the Chinese and Russian presidents began to form an “independent financial infrastructure”, to reduce their heavy dependence on Western banks and their exposure to punitive measures from the West. Through their proposal to hold a possible tripartite summit with India, it began with the visit of Russian President “Putin” to the capital, New Delhi, and his meeting with Indian Prime Minister “Narendra Modi”, and then the two parties’ agreement for India to obtain the S-500 missile system. All of these Russian and Chinese moves are to obstruct US influence in response to its existing alliances against them.   

 Here, China denounced the massive cooperation program, warning that the (Aukus nuclear defense agreement) between Washington, Australia and Britain represented “a wrong path and a threat to regional and international security.  China’s mission to the United Nations also accused the western allies, led by the United States, of obstructing efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons. Certainly, building a number of security and defense blocs of a nuclear nature, such as the Okus agreement to develop NATO’s infrastructure in the Asian region, will inevitably lead to a confrontation that will last for many years.  This was stated in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s warning of the dangers of nuclear proliferation with the nuclear propulsion submarine program launched by the United States, Australia and Britain.

 The danger of the Aukus nuclear agreement for China comes that it will be the first time ever around the world, in which three fleets sail together and in full coordination, namely the American, British and Australian fleets, across the Atlantic and Indian oceans in the Indo-Pacific region in the American concept or Asia Pacific in the Chinese concept under the slogan of preserving freedom of navigation.  It certainly raises China’s anger and fears and threatens regional security in areas of direct influence of China.  The biggest Chinese fear comes from the Okus defense nuclear agreement between the United States, Australia and Britain, given that, starting in 2027, the United States and the United Kingdom will establish a base that includes a small number of nuclear submarines in the Perth region of Western Australia, before the Australian capital, Canberra, buys three American Virginia-class submarines, with other options offered to Australia by Washington to buy two more submarines.  This threatens long and continuous confrontations between China and the signatories to the Aukus nuclear agreement, due to its impact on the safety and security of China and its immediate regional surroundings.

  Therefore, the Chinese warning came that the “Aukus Agreement” may lead to igniting an arms race in the region, with the three countries being accused of causing a setback in efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation. China looks with resentment, especially at the rapprochement that began in the past years in the Indo-Pacific region between the authorities of Taiwan and the United States of America, because of its decades-old military support for the island in the face of Beijing.  Chinese President “Xi Jinping” accused the United States of leading Western efforts towards “containing, encircling, and completely suppressing China”. Here came the American response to China, with reference to Beijing’s raising the concerns of several countries in the Asia-Pacific region, through its threats to invade Taiwan, which enjoys democratic rule, according to Washington, in addition to the American emphasis on the need to protect the region surrounding China, given the threat posed by nuclear-armed North Korea in the face of  its Japanese and South Korean neighbors and the security of the region.

 The Aukus defense nuclear agreement represents a major leap for Australia, as this step for Australia, an ally of the United States, is a major development of its military capabilities.  It became the second country after the United Kingdom to acquire Washington’s nuclear technology. The submarines are characterized by their ability to operate more and faster compared to the current fleet of diesel-powered submarines, and Australia will be able, for the first time, to launch long-range strikes against its enemies, according to the Australian perception. The Aukus agreement includes sending a group of Australian Navy personnel, starting from the current year 2023, to the American and British submarine bases for training on how to use the new nuclear submarines.  This is a major step within the “Aukus” tripartite partnership agreement signed by the three countries, “USA, Britain and Australia” in 2021.

 However, US President “Joe Biden” denied these Chinese and international accusations, stressing that the agreement aims to promote peace in the region from the American point of view, and that submarines will operate with nuclear energy and are not armed with nuclear weapons.  During his meeting with UK and Australian ministers, “Rishi Sunak and Anthony Albanese” in San Diego, California, he said the agreement would not jeopardize Australia’s commitment to being a nuclear-weapon-free country.

  The last analysis remains for analysts and foreign policy makers with regard to China and Russia after Washington concluded the Aukus nuclear defense agreement with Britain and Australia in the face of China and Russia mainly, that the United States of America, with its reckless behavior in the foreign arena, has brought the situation to the point that the world is about to enter into a global military and nuclear conflict between America itself on the one hand and China and Russia on the other hand through its alliances directed against them globally, such as the Aukus nuclear alliance with Britain and Australia and the Quadruple Alliance with Japan, South Korea, India and Australia.

Authors: I Dewa Made Raditya Margenta; Hidayatul Mustafidah Rohmawati*

Indonesia’s presidency at the next ASEAN Chairmanship may hold the key to unlocking the region’s most ambitious and promising energy project, the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) project.

This year, Indonesia will chair a multilateral meeting (again) called the 2023 ASEAN Chairmanship, with the theme of “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth.” This meeting will hone in on enhancing ASEAN’s institutional capacity and effectiveness to be a fast-growing, inclusive, and sustainable economic region. This chairmanship will also further strengthen Indonesia’s diplomatic influence following the success of the G20 Presidency in 2022.

In this year’s chairmanship, Indonesia raises three priority issues in the economic sector: recovery and rebuilding, digital economy, and sustainability. These priorities implementation is translated into 16 Priority Economic Deliverables for 2023. One of the priorities focuses on building sustainable energy security through interconnectivity and market obligation. Therefore, this is a gate opener for a more substantial commitment to the long-awaited ASEAN energy project, ASEAN Power Grid.

Quo Vadis of the ASEAN Power Grid.

The ASEAN Power Grid project is the flagship program mandated in 1997 by the ASEAN Heads of State/Governments under the ASEAN Vision 2020. The project intends to boost grid modernisation and resilience, promote clean and renewable energy integration, and increase regional multilateral electricity trading between ASEAN member states. It could also provide an electricity solution for remote or undeveloped areas inaccessible by national transmission lines.

The ASEAN Power Grid could also assist the ASEAN member states in shifting their fossil fuel dependency by optimising renewable energy sources. ASEAN is projected to need an additional 479 GW of electricity by 2040 to fuel its economy. However, all ASEAN member states have a firm reliance on fossil fuels. Currently, fossil energy is still the primary electricity source in ASEAN, around 75% of the electricity production mix.

At the same time, the electricity generated from renewable energy sources also grows annually. Besides, ASEAN has abundant renewable energy potential; 8,119GW Gross Capacity of solar and 342GW of wind. Optimising renewable energy in the project could contribute up to 112,267 million tons of CO₂e and 64 thousand tons of N₂O of emission reduction by 2040. It could also significantly reduce the dependence on fossil fuels around 259 million tons of coal, 11.2 million tons of oil and 77 million m³ of natural gas. The ASEAN Power Grid project, therefore, could heavily rely on renewable energy and, ultimately, intertwine the economic development and climate mitigation in the ASEAN region.

Economically, the ASEAN Power Grid can reduce the annual operational costs of the ASEAN power sector by USD 1 billion. It corresponds to a supply cost reduction of around USD 1 per MWh. Increasing the cross-border interconnection infrastructure in ASEAN has further economic advantages and can support higher percentages of renewable energy use. The annual operations costs can be cut by 4-5 billion USD.

Other benefits also include potential green jobs. It is estimated that 100,000 – 200,000 green jobs could be created in 2040 and grow up to 700,000 in a more ambitious scenario.

(De)bottleneck the problem through multilateral cooperation

However, realising the ASEAN Power Grid has to deal with numerous challenges, primarily political mistrust towards the project. Some ASEAN members highly value the ideas of nationalism and sovereignty. Besides, the concept of self-sufficiency also becomes the bottleneck of cross-border electricity trade. For instance, exporting renewable energy is prohibited in Malaysia and Indonesia. Consequently, only half of the key cross-border ASEAN Power Grid interconnections were in operation from the first announcement.

Governments often need to be made aware of the potential of regional electricity connectivity. This connectivity could close the gap between electricity supply and demand, potentially widening in the next two decades. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of natural resources endowments within regions also prohibits the accomplishment of self-sufficiency, and it needs multilateral collaboration to realise energy security.

Therefore, Indonesia’s presidency on ASEAN Chairmanship 2023 must be the perfect timing to strengthen the ASEAN’s political will on the ASEAN Power Grid. As the natural leader within ASEAN, Indonesia could optimise their influence to enhance the political trust between members. Indonesia may not want to lose the political momentum when the G20 presidency was successfully held amid unprecedented circumstances, such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

As the leader, Indonesia might encourage the development of a consistent yet adaptive intergovernmental collaboration framework in the energy sector. This commitment is crucial for risk sharing and providing a clear line in the planning and permitting. This commitment is also vital as a certainty for the multilateral or private financiers to support the project financing.

In light of the significance of the ASEAN Power Grid for the regional economy and efforts to mitigate climate risk, it will be interesting to examine Indonesia’s viewpoint and political decision in the 2023 ASEAN Chairmanship.

*Hidayatul Mustafidah Rohmawati is a research staff of Purnomo Yusgiantoro Center (PYC). She has research interest in biobased energy and green industry sectors. She completed her degree from Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia.

The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Australia PM Anthony Albanese and American President Joe Biden met at San Diego Naval Centre on March 12, 2023 to further discuss the defence pact that involved nuclear submarine deal with Australia. The leaders announced after the talks that Australia will acquire conventionally armed, nuclear powered submarine.

AUKUS is a strategic agreement between the US, UK and Australia to deepen trilateral cooperation on defence and security capabilities announced on September 15, 2021. Initially this agreement aimed to build nuclear-powered submarines deliver to Australia, then extended to be part of the United States’ integrated deterrence approach, which seeks to deter potential adversaries through a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military tools. The integrated deterrence approach emphasizes the need for closer cooperation with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s growing military and economic influence. In this regard, the US is first time going to share its nuclear power technology with its ally Australia apart from UK.

Integrated Deterrence approach is adopted by the US in its National Defence Strategy released in October, 2022. Integrated deterrence seeks to integrate all tools of national power across domains, geography, and spectrum of conflict, while working with allies and partners. Moreover, the US National Security Strategy and National Defence Strategy defined China as a long term threat to the US, while Russia as an immediate threat and Iran as an irritant. The US is going to integrate the capabilities of allies in countering the competitors that is going to be an actual asymmetric advantage for the US over its competitors.

The AUKUS partnership is designed to enhance the defense capabilities of Australia, particularly in the area of undersea warfare, with a key focus to deter China. By providing Australia with advanced nuclear-powered submarines, the partnership aims to increase Australia’s ability to deter potential adversaries in the region. The AUKUS partnership also involves sharing advanced military technology, including artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities, which will enhance the ability of the US and its partners to respond to emerging security threats in the region.

The announcement of the AUKUS partnership has drawn reactions from other countries, particularly China and France. China has criticized the partnership as a provocative move that will escalate tensions in the region, and called it “a blatant act of nuclear proliferation” that undermines regional peace and stability. While France has expressed disappointment and anger over Australia’s decision to cancel 66 billion dollar submarine contract with France in favor of the AUKUS partnership.

AUKUS deal also has implications for the Non-Nuclear Proliferation regime. One of the key principles of the NPT is that non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS) agree not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons in exchange for access to peaceful nuclear technology. The transfer of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia raises concerns about the potential for nuclear weapons proliferation, as the technology used in nuclear-powered submarines could be used to develop nuclear weapons.

Some NPT states have expressed concern that the AUKUS deal could set a precedent for other countries to acquire nuclear-powered submarines or develop nuclear weapons outside of the NPT framework. Nuclear-powered submarines are different from nuclear-armed ones, but they are predicated on the military use of nuclear power. Such a move will bear serious negative implications for nuclear proliferation, damaging the NPT regime. It is so because Japan, South Korea, and other countries in the region can bid for nuclear-powered submarines. The AUKUS deal under the auspice of integrated deterrence is going to have negative consequences on Indian Ocean, it is going to not only militarized but nuclearized the Indian Ocean.

To counter the growing influence of China, India has deepen its defence cooperation with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia, and the US under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue which also serves integrated deterrence approach of the west. The AUKUS partnership could potentially have implications for India’s strategic interests in the region, particularly if it leads to increased tensions between the US and China. India may also be interested in acquiring advanced military technology such as nuclear powered submarine that could be made available as part of the partnership. It will initiate an arm race in South Asia endangering the already volatile strategic stability of the region.