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Remittances to Reach $630 billion in 2022 with Record Flows into Ukraine

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Officially recorded remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are expected to increase by 4.2 percent this year to reach $630 billion. This follows an almost record recovery of 8.6 percent in 2021, according to the World Bank’s latest Migration and Development Brief released today.

Remittances to Ukraine, which is the largest recipient in Europe and Central Asia, are expected to rise by over 20 percent in 2022. However, remittance flows to many Central Asian countries, for which the main source is Russia, will likely fall dramatically. Thesedeclines, combined with rising food, fertilizer, and oil prices, are likely to increase risks to food security and exacerbate poverty in many of these countries.

“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered large-scale humanitarian, migration and refugee crises and risks for a global economy that is still dealing with the impact of the COVID pandemic,” said Michal Rutkowski, Global Director of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. “Boosting social protection programs to protect the most vulnerable, including Ukrainians and families in Central Asia, as well as those affected by the war’s economic impact, is a key priority to protect people from the threats of food insecurity and rising poverty.”

During 2021, remittance inflows saw strong gains in Latin America and the Caribbean (25.3 percent), Sub-Saharan Africa (14.1 percent), Europe and Central Asia (7.8 percent), the Middle East and North Africa (7.6 percent), and South Asia (6.9 percent). Remittances to East Asia and the Pacific fell by 3.3 percent; although excluding China, remittances grew 2.5 percent. Excluding China, remittance flows have been the largest source of external finance for LMICs since 2015.

The top five recipient countries for remittances in 2021 were India, Mexico (replacing China), China, the Philippines, and Egypt. Among economies where remittance inflows stand at very high shares of GDP are Lebanon (54 percent), Tonga (44 percent), Tajikistan (34 percent), Kyrgyz Republic (33 percent), and Samoa (32 percent).

“On the one hand, the Ukraine crisis has shifted global policy attention away from other developing regions and from economic migration. On the other hand, it has strengthened the case for supporting destination communities that are experiencing a large influx of migrants,” said Dilip Ratha, lead author of the report on migration and remittances and head of KNOMAD. “As the global community prepares to gather at the International Migration Review Forum, the creation of a Concessional Financing Facility for Migration to support destination communities should be seriously considered. This facility could also provide financial support to origin communities experiencing return migration during the COVID-19 crisis.”

Globally, the average cost of sending $200 was 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, double the SDG target of 3 percent, according to the Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database. It is cheapest to send money to South Asia (4.3 percent) and most expensive to send to Sub-Saharan Africa (7.8 percent).

The costs of sending money to Ukraine are high (7.1 percent from Czech Republic, 6.5 percent from Germany, 5.9 percent from Poland, and 5.2 percent from USA). The global goodwill towards refugees and migrants from Ukraine opens an opportunity to develop and pilot programs to facilitate their access to jobs and social services in host countries, apply simplified anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing procedures for small remittance transactions to help reduce remittance costs and mobilize diaspora bond financing.

The war in Ukraine has also affected the international payment systems with implications for cross-border remittance flows. The exclusion of Russia from SWIFT has added a national security dimension to participation in international payments systems.

“Lowering remittance fees by 2 percentage points would potentially translate to $12 billion of annual savings for international migrants from LMICs, and $400 million for migrants and refugees from Ukraine,” added Ratha. “The cross-border payment systems, however, are likely to become multipolar and less interoperable, slowing progress on reducing remittance fees.”

World Bank Launches International Working Group to Improve Data on Remittances

The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have further highlighted the need for frequent and timely data. In April, the World Bank, under the auspices of KNOMAD and in collaboration with countries where remittances provide a financial lifeline, launched an International Working Group to Improve Data on Remittance Flows. Having improved data on remittances can directly support the Sustainable Development Goal indicators on reducing remittance costs and help increase the volume of remittances. This will also support the first Objective of the Global Compact on Migration, to improve data.

Regional Remittance Trends

Remittance flows to the East Asia and Pacific region fell 3.3 percent following a 7.3 percent drop in 2020. Flows reached $133 billion in 2021, close to 2017 levels. Excluding China, remittances to the region grew by 2.5 percent in 2021. Remittances to the Phillipines benefitted from job creation and wage gains in the United States where a large number of Filipino migrants live. Among economies where remittance inflows constitute a high percentage of their GDP are Tonga, Samoa, the Marshall Islands, the Philippines, and Fiji. Excluding China, remittance inflows are projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2022. The average cost of sending $200 to the region fell to 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to 6.9 percent a year earlier.

Remittance inflows to Europe and Central Asia increased by 7.8 percent in 2021, reaching historic highs of $74 billion. The growth was due in large part to stronger economic activity in the European Union and rebounding energy prices. In 2021, Ukraine received inflows of $18.2 billion, driven by receipts from Poland, the largest destination country for Ukrainian migrant workers. Personal transfers constitute a vital source of finance and growth for the economies of Central Asia, for which Russia is the prime source. As a share of GDP, remittance receipts in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic were 34 percent and 33 percent respectively in 2021. Near-term projections for remittances to the region, which are expected to fall by 1.6 percent in 2022, are highly uncertain, dependent on the scale of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions on outbound payments from Russia. By contrast, remittance flows to Ukraine are expected to increase by over 20 percent in 2022. The average cost of sending $200 to the region fell to 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 6.4 percent a year earlier.

Remittance flows to Latin America and the Caribbean surged to $131 billion in 2021, up 25.3 percent from 2020 due to the strong job recovery for foreign-born workers in the United States. Countries registering double-digit growth rates included Guatemala (35 percent), Ecuador (31 percent) Honduras (29 percent), Mexico (25 percent), El Salvador (26 percent), Dominican Republic (26 percent), Colombia (24 percent), Haiti (21 percent), and Nicaragua (16 percent). Recorded flows to Mexico include funds received by transit migrants from Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Venezuela, Cuba, and others. Remittances are important as a source of hard currency for several countries for which these flows represent at least 20 percent of GDP, including El Salvador, Honduras, Jamaica, and Haiti. In 2022, remittances are estimated to grow by 9.1 percent, though downside risks remain. The average cost of sending $200 to the region was mostly unchanged at 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to a year earlier.

Remittances to the developing countries of the Middle East and North Africa region grew by 7.6 percent in 2021 to $61 billion, driven by robust gains into Morocco (40 percent) and Egypt (6.4 percent). Factors supporting the flows were economic growth in host countries in the European Union as well as transit migration which further boosted inflows to temporary host countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. In 2022, remittance flows will likely ease to a 6 percent gain. Remittances have long made up the largest source of external resource flows for developing MENA—among ODA, FDI, and portfolio equity and debt flows—accounting for 61 percent of total inflows in 2021. The cost of sending $200 to MENA fell to 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 6.6 percent a year ago.

Remittances to South Asia grew 6.9 percent to $157 billion in 2021. Though large numbers of South Asian migrants returned to home countries as the pandemic broke out in early 2020, the availability of vaccines and opening of Gulf Cooperation Council economies enabled a gradual return to host countries in 2021, supporting larger remittance flows. Better economic performance in the United States was also a major contributor to the growth in 2021. Remittance flows to India and Pakistan grew by 8 percent and 20 percent, respectively. In 2022, growth in remittance inflows is expected to slow to 4.4 percent. Remittances are the dominant source of foreign exchange for the region, with receipts more than three times the level of FDI in 2021. South Asia has the lowest average remittance cost of any world region at 4.3 percent, though this is still higher than the SDG target of 3 percent.

Remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa soared 14.1 percent to $49 billion in 2021 following an 8.1 percent decline in the prior year. Growth in remittances was supported by strong economic activity in Europe and the United States. Recorded inflows to Nigeria, the largest recipient country in the region, gained 11.2 percent, in part due to policies intended to channel inflows through the banking system. Countries registering double-digit growth rates include Cabo Verde (23.3 percent), Gambia (31 percent), and Kenya (20.1 percent). Countries where the value of remittance inflows as a share of GDP is significant include the Gambia (27 percent), Lesotho (23 percent), Comoros (19 percent), and Cabo Verde (16 percent). In 2022, remittance inflows are projected to grow by 7.1 percent driven by continued shift to the use of official channels in Nigeria and higher food prices – migrants will likely send more money to home countries that are now suffering extraordinary increases in prices of staples. The cost of sending $200 to the region averaged 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, a small decline from 8.2 percent a year ago.

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Finance

How to Prepare for Your First Year in College

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Securing college admission is an achievement you should be proud of. It feels even more fulfilling if you are admitted to your dream college. Many people were interested in the opportunity, and getting it is the best thing that can ever happen to you. Therefore, you shouldn’t take the opportunity for granted.

However, the transition isn’t always easy for students. Most of them do not know what to expect in college, which makes them anxious. For others, moving away from home for the first time is intimidating. Besides, some individuals may not know how to deal with the financial and academic challenges they may face in college.

Are you done with high school, and you’re now looking forward to college adventures? Here are excellent tips to help you prepare for your first year in college.

Schedule a Tour and Get to Know Your College

Most students wait until the admission day to have a college experience. If you do that, it may take you a lot of time to understand the environment. Consequently, you may not focus on your studies early on. Checking out the outline of the campus on online platforms may also not help as you may miss many details.

You should schedule a tour of the campus and have a first-hand experience with the environment. During the tour, confirm the location of important offices. Moreover, you should know the class venues and the library. It will make your life easy when you finally begin to study.

Work on Your College Budget in Advance

Financial issues are among the serious challenges collegians face. While the expenses are limitless, there are limited sources of income. If you’re not careful, you may run out of money before the end of a given study period. You may get carried away by the daily shopping, luxury items, and the push to spend on entertainment.

Before you begin your first college semester, create a functional budget. Identify your sources of income. After that, list your college expenses. Allocate money to all your expenses, beginning with the basic needs. The luxuries should come last.

Sharpen Your College Writing and Study Skills

College life isn’t all butterflies and rainbows. There is serious work to do, and you may have to study more than you used to when in high school. The grades you’ll attain in different papers like essays, dissertations, and case studies will determine if you’ll move to the next level or not. So you have to sharpen your writing skills, or you’ll find yourself seeking essay help online.

Read journals, books, and essays written by experts. It will help improve your study skills and your ability to read fast. Besides, you can mimic the styles you see in these materials when completing your college assignment. The chances of getting good grades in college increase when you are a good writer and reader.

Set Realistic College Academic Goals

The main reason for going to college is to acquire skills that can help you in life. Professors do not award grades randomly. You should convince them that you understand the course concepts by submitting excellent papers. Otherwise, you may fail to graduate at the right time.

Some people begin college education without a plan. If you do that, you may not achieve what you want. Set realistic goals and specify the level of competence you intend to achieve at the end of your course. You should have short-term, medium-term, and long-term academic goals to act as a motivation to work harder.

Improve Your Time Management Skills

Time is one of the most critical aspects of a college education. If you do not organize your activities perfectly, you may become overwhelmed. Remember, it will not always be about academics; you’ll have extracurricular activities to participate in, you’ll also need to socialize, and may be you’ll have a part-time job. Therefore, it will be important to balance everything.

Look at the college academic and activity schedule in advance. Assess the deadlines and purpose to begin working on important tasks early. You’ll have higher chances of college success if you work within deadlines.

Excellent ways of enhancing time management include:

  • Working on the most important tasks first
  • Avoiding distractions
  • Avoiding procrastination
  • Creating time to relax

Take-Home Point

Although your first college semester may be scary, you can make things easier for yourself. Touring your college of choice will help release some tension as you’ll not be a total stranger to the new environment when you finally get admitted. Creating a budget will also help avoid financial problems, thus making your life easier. Lastly, you should set realistic goals and work on your time management skills.

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Finance

Unlocking the Triple Returns from Social, Tech and Green Jobs

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New insights and initiatives at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2022 seek to launch a jobs recovery to strengthen resilience and dynamism in economies, businesses and societies in the midst of a turbulent outlook.

Investing in education, health and care jobs can yield a triple dividend – boosting economic activity, expanding employment opportunities and generating social mobility. New modelling of the United States economy suggests that investing $1 in social jobs would yield a $2.3 return. The model estimates that $1.3 trillion in the social jobs of tomorrow could unlock $3.1 trillion in GDP returns and create 11 million jobs by 2030.
 
These jobs include 4.2 million teaching jobs, 1.8 million jobs for personal care and service workers, and 900,000 jobs in healthcare. These are the key findings of the World Economic Forum’s new report Jobs of Tomorrow: The Triple Returns of Social Jobs in the Economic Recovery, published at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022 today.
 
Developed in collaboration with Accenture, the report finds that the associated increases in productivity, increased GDP and tighter labour markets will lead to a parallel increase in real wages. Aided by technology and better skills, the jobs of tomorrow have the potential to lift living standards globally. After more than two years of turmoil in the global economy and a continued uncertain outlook, leaders need to support workers in pivoting towards a future which works for everyone. Higher wage, higher-quality, future-ready jobs are possible and benefit companies, workers and economies alike.

Good Work in the New Economy
 
As many employers and workers seek a “new normal” after the disruptions of the past few years, there is an opportunity to develop a new vision for the future of work, one that is ready for the new economy and society. Five key issues have emerged that need to be addressed to ensure better work for workers and employers alike: volatility in wages and the cost of living; divergence on the demand for flexibility; silent pandemic in well-being; an erosion of diversity, equity and inclusion gains; and the need for a reskilling revolution.
 
The Good Work Framework, a second report released at the Annual Meeting, drawing from the views of employers, unions and experts and developed in collaboration with Mercer, proposes enhancing job quality through five objectives and associated goals: promote fair pay and social justice; provide flexibility and protection; deliver on health and well-being; drive diversity, equity and inclusion; and foster employability and learning culture.
 
The Jobs Consortium
 
To support this broad agenda and to mobilize the required investments globally, the first meeting of the Jobs Consortium was held at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos. The initiative comprises CEOs and ministers championing productive employment, growth in the jobs of tomorrow, new standards in the workplace and better wages for all.
 
Underpinning the Jobs Consortium is a shared understanding of the need to expand opportunity and quality in the jobs of tomorrow, with a particular focus on social, green and tech jobs as the high-growth, job-creating sectors of the future. The initiative is supported by insight products, action frameworks and a collaboration platform, which develop expert knowledge to drive tangible change, and will work closely with initiatives on developing skills for the global workforce.
 
Refugee Employment and Employability
 
Refugees are a particularly vulnerable group, often excluded from the labour markets of host economies. Over 6 million refugees have left Ukraine since February 2022, adding to the estimated 31 million people worldwide who have been forcibly displaced across borders.
 
As businesses mobilize to assist refugees with integration into host communities and workforces, the World Economic Forum’s Chief Human Resources Officers community, drawn from over 140 organizations, has launched a Refugee Employment and Employability Initiative. The initiative will pilot its work with supporting learning and job opportunities for Ukrainian refugees in Europe in its first phase and draw best practices to build a methodology for supporting system-wide global support from employers for refugees.
 
“Our ambition is to lead with action and we know that refugees bring a broad set of skills, experience and perspectives that benefit societies and businesses. Helping people find work isn’t just a humanitarian effort, it’s also good for business,” said Jesper Brodin, CEO of Ingka Group.

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New Initiative to Strengthen Cross-Border Investment in the Digital Economy

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A pioneering effort to facilitate cross-border investment in the digital economy was launched this week at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022.

The new initiative on digital foreign direct investment, the Digital FDI initiative, will implement projects in several countries to help grow Digital FDI, as the reforms to attract such investment must take place at a country level. The first digital FDI project will take place in Nigeria.

Over the past few years, the Forum has worked to find the right partners to guide the work, develop principles published in the white paper launched in 2020 and share the potential for cooperation at the G20 and other platforms of corporation.

Attracting Digital FDI requires creating digital-friendly investment climates through targeted and country-specific policies, regulations and measures. These investments involve new business models, often based on data and technology, and platform economies, as well as using non-traditional assets. The Digital FDI initiative will aim to identify and implement enabling reforms through public-private projects in emerging markets and developing countries.

“Global FDI is rebounding, following the COVID-19 pandemic, and investment in the digital economy could not come at a better time. These country projects will help grow FDI into the digital economy, which is key for long-term growth, competitiveness and sustainable development”, said Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum.

The Digital FDI initiative will be delivered as a joint effort between the World Economic Forum and the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), a new international organization that seeks to enable digital prosperity for all.

“As the first and only global multilateral focused on enabling digital prosperity for all, the DCO is partnering with the Forum on a Digital Foreign Direct Investment initiative to help countries develop digital FDI-friendly investment climates. We invite digital innovators with a commitment to economic development and inclusion to join us,” said Deemah Al Yahya, Secretary-General, DCO.

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