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Private Sector Investment in Developing-Country Infrastructure Bounces Back from Historic Lows

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New data from the World Bank finds that private investment in low- and middle-income country infrastructure is rebounding from the historic lows recorded in 2020. Private investment commitments in low- and middle-income countries totaled $76.2 billion in 2021, representing a 49% increase from 2020.

“The rebound of private sector investment commitments in infrastructure is a positive sign that the recovery from COVID19 had begun in 2021,” said Imad Fakhoury, the World Bank’s Global Director for Infrastructure Finance, PPPs & Guarantees. “There is a significant opportunity to forge ahead with quality investments in green, resilient and inclusive infrastructure in 2022. But as economic stimulus slows, credit conditions tighten and uncertainty from overlapping crises intensifies, there will be even greater need for private investment in infrastructure. This will require working collectively to enable private sector solutions and putting in place stronger foundations for a post-crises recovery.”

Although the recovery of private investments is a positive sign, daunting challenges remain. Overall commitments still lag 12% lower than the previous five-year average, an indicator that recovery from the deep recession triggered by COVID-19 is still underway.  

Investments were unequal across regions. Europe and Central Asia saw the largest increase in private investment commitments. In 2021, commitments in the region totaled $15 billion, a 400% increase compared to 2020 and double the five-year average. An $8 billion airport concession in Antalya, Turkey was a significant contributor to this increase. A public-private partnership program in Uzbekistan also helped drive $2.2 billion of commitments across five projects, amounting to 3.6% of the country’s national GDP. The outlook for infrastructure investments in the region is now dampened by the war in Ukraine.

While Europe and Central Asia reported the largest percent increase in private sector commitments, East Asia Pacific posted the largest total commitment — $28.1 billion, a 69% increase compared to 2020. Latin America and Caribbean also reported a 22% increase in commitments, for a total of $18.6 billion. Brazil led the recovery in the region.

Private investment commitments decreased in Sub-Saharan Africa by 17%, in South Asia by 16% and by 90% in Middle East and North Africa.

The transport sector received $43.8 billion in investments across 82 projects, accounting for 58% of global PPI investments. This marks a return to the decade-long trend for PPI following 2020’s standstill in transport investments.

Nearly one-third — 29% — of all PPI investments went to the energy sector, a 26% decrease from 2020 levels. Of the $22.4 billion directed to energy projects, 72% went to renewable electricity generation, primarily solar energy.

Private sources contributed 63% of the financing to PPI projects. Another 18% came from public sources and 19% from development and export finance institutions (DFI). Despite the impact of COVID-19, the share of financing across public, private, and DFI sources largely remained the same as that of pre-pandemic distribution. Infrastructure projects continued to be highly reliant on debt in 2021, with total debt raised of US$13.6 billion, or 64% of projects with full financing information available.

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Unlocking the Triple Returns from Social, Tech and Green Jobs

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New insights and initiatives at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2022 seek to launch a jobs recovery to strengthen resilience and dynamism in economies, businesses and societies in the midst of a turbulent outlook.

Investing in education, health and care jobs can yield a triple dividend – boosting economic activity, expanding employment opportunities and generating social mobility. New modelling of the United States economy suggests that investing $1 in social jobs would yield a $2.3 return. The model estimates that $1.3 trillion in the social jobs of tomorrow could unlock $3.1 trillion in GDP returns and create 11 million jobs by 2030.
 
These jobs include 4.2 million teaching jobs, 1.8 million jobs for personal care and service workers, and 900,000 jobs in healthcare. These are the key findings of the World Economic Forum’s new report Jobs of Tomorrow: The Triple Returns of Social Jobs in the Economic Recovery, published at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022 today.
 
Developed in collaboration with Accenture, the report finds that the associated increases in productivity, increased GDP and tighter labour markets will lead to a parallel increase in real wages. Aided by technology and better skills, the jobs of tomorrow have the potential to lift living standards globally. After more than two years of turmoil in the global economy and a continued uncertain outlook, leaders need to support workers in pivoting towards a future which works for everyone. Higher wage, higher-quality, future-ready jobs are possible and benefit companies, workers and economies alike.

Good Work in the New Economy
 
As many employers and workers seek a “new normal” after the disruptions of the past few years, there is an opportunity to develop a new vision for the future of work, one that is ready for the new economy and society. Five key issues have emerged that need to be addressed to ensure better work for workers and employers alike: volatility in wages and the cost of living; divergence on the demand for flexibility; silent pandemic in well-being; an erosion of diversity, equity and inclusion gains; and the need for a reskilling revolution.
 
The Good Work Framework, a second report released at the Annual Meeting, drawing from the views of employers, unions and experts and developed in collaboration with Mercer, proposes enhancing job quality through five objectives and associated goals: promote fair pay and social justice; provide flexibility and protection; deliver on health and well-being; drive diversity, equity and inclusion; and foster employability and learning culture.
 
The Jobs Consortium
 
To support this broad agenda and to mobilize the required investments globally, the first meeting of the Jobs Consortium was held at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos. The initiative comprises CEOs and ministers championing productive employment, growth in the jobs of tomorrow, new standards in the workplace and better wages for all.
 
Underpinning the Jobs Consortium is a shared understanding of the need to expand opportunity and quality in the jobs of tomorrow, with a particular focus on social, green and tech jobs as the high-growth, job-creating sectors of the future. The initiative is supported by insight products, action frameworks and a collaboration platform, which develop expert knowledge to drive tangible change, and will work closely with initiatives on developing skills for the global workforce.
 
Refugee Employment and Employability
 
Refugees are a particularly vulnerable group, often excluded from the labour markets of host economies. Over 6 million refugees have left Ukraine since February 2022, adding to the estimated 31 million people worldwide who have been forcibly displaced across borders.
 
As businesses mobilize to assist refugees with integration into host communities and workforces, the World Economic Forum’s Chief Human Resources Officers community, drawn from over 140 organizations, has launched a Refugee Employment and Employability Initiative. The initiative will pilot its work with supporting learning and job opportunities for Ukrainian refugees in Europe in its first phase and draw best practices to build a methodology for supporting system-wide global support from employers for refugees.
 
“Our ambition is to lead with action and we know that refugees bring a broad set of skills, experience and perspectives that benefit societies and businesses. Helping people find work isn’t just a humanitarian effort, it’s also good for business,” said Jesper Brodin, CEO of Ingka Group.

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New Initiative to Strengthen Cross-Border Investment in the Digital Economy

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A pioneering effort to facilitate cross-border investment in the digital economy was launched this week at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022.

The new initiative on digital foreign direct investment, the Digital FDI initiative, will implement projects in several countries to help grow Digital FDI, as the reforms to attract such investment must take place at a country level. The first digital FDI project will take place in Nigeria.

Over the past few years, the Forum has worked to find the right partners to guide the work, develop principles published in the white paper launched in 2020 and share the potential for cooperation at the G20 and other platforms of corporation.

Attracting Digital FDI requires creating digital-friendly investment climates through targeted and country-specific policies, regulations and measures. These investments involve new business models, often based on data and technology, and platform economies, as well as using non-traditional assets. The Digital FDI initiative will aim to identify and implement enabling reforms through public-private projects in emerging markets and developing countries.

“Global FDI is rebounding, following the COVID-19 pandemic, and investment in the digital economy could not come at a better time. These country projects will help grow FDI into the digital economy, which is key for long-term growth, competitiveness and sustainable development”, said Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum.

The Digital FDI initiative will be delivered as a joint effort between the World Economic Forum and the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), a new international organization that seeks to enable digital prosperity for all.

“As the first and only global multilateral focused on enabling digital prosperity for all, the DCO is partnering with the Forum on a Digital Foreign Direct Investment initiative to help countries develop digital FDI-friendly investment climates. We invite digital innovators with a commitment to economic development and inclusion to join us,” said Deemah Al Yahya, Secretary-General, DCO.

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Post-COVID, Latin American Leaders Say their Countries Are Open for Business

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Rising food and energy prices and a migration crisis are posing significant economic and social challenges in Latin America, according to several leaders from the region speaking on a presidential panel at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2022. However, they remain confident that investing in their economies will remain attractive.

“We cannot be indifferent in front of this humanitarian tragedy,” said Colombian President Ivan Duque, referring to challenges linked to Venezuelan migration to his country, which has seen close to 2 million cross the border over the past several years after fleeing economic hardship. Duque announced that Colombia would issue over 1 million temporary status cards to Venezuelan migrants.

Rising food and energy prices also pose threats to Latin American populations. President Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona of the Dominican Republic noted that his government would soon authorize subsidies for corn to offset rising food prices and the increasing cost of poultry. The nation has already implemented fertilizer subsidies and support for wheat prices would likely follow.

While the region has experienced economic growth in recent years, the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain and price shocks linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have raised questions about future growth for a range of countries. Despite the challenges, many Latin American countries continue to tout their economies and to encourage foreign business for investment and “near-shoring”.

“Not red tape, but red carpet,” said President Rodrigo Chaves Robles of Costa Rica, on his nation’s readiness to welcome foreign investors. “Costa Rica is open for business. I will break all bottlenecks…. I will open all doors.”

Likewise, Dina Ercilia Boluarte, Peru’s Vice-President and Minister of Development and Social Inclusion, stressed the nation’s readiness for outside investors. “We will welcome you with a stable economy and legal guarantees.”

The focus of many Latin American nations is now on climate and environmental sustainability. In tourism-intensive nations, such as the Dominican Republic, the sector constitutes an essential part of GDP and employs 20% of the population. Diversifying beyond “sun-and-beach” tourism could ensure the sector remains resilient even in the face of intensifying climate change.

In addition, the region can accelerate investments in climate mitigation and renewable energy. Chaves said: “We’re improving our electricity grid to more renewables even though we have over-invested in the power generation with fossil fuels.” Transitioning energy sources in a time of rising prices poses serious challenges, he added, so the nation will need to proceed with its reforms in a way that balances current growth with sustainability goals.

Educational reform is another way Latin American leaders are preparing for digital and green energy transformations. Colombia recently completed training for 100,000 programmers, and Costa Rica is working to improve the efficiency of its education spending. Currently, the country spends twice as much as Viet Nam to educate students. While Viet Nam ranks eighth in students’ math scores, Costa Rica ranks near the bottom in terms of students’ maths performance.

Peru is promoting social inclusion by transforming how the state delivers social services to rural communities. One programme involves putting state services – such as vaccines, health supplies and training materials to reduce violence against women – on boats so officials can reach hard-to-access communities in dense Peruvian forests and remote villages. “We are bringing services of the state to our brothers and sisters to improve their quality of life,” Boluarte said.

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