Irrespective of the real causes behind the Indian BrahMos intruding 124 kilometers deep into the Pakistani airspace, the incident is being viewed with profound skepticism in Pakistan. Reasons: the decades-old hostility and prevalent distrust between the two countries; India’s long history of increasingly belligerent verbalized and force-development posturing vis-à-vis Pakistan; India’s abstruse attitude aimed at mystification instead of coming out transparent as to why the missile was launched.
At this moment in time, there are two widely prevalent discourses in Pakistan regarding the Indian BrahMos crashing into Pakistan:
The first discourse posits the launch of BrahMos as a deliberate act meant to check Pakistan’s response and that it features in the larger Indian stratagem of climbing one rung up the escalation ladder in each new crisis. The ultimate aim of the step-by-step strategy is to render Pakistan militarily acquiescent whilst dawdling below the war threshold. India’s much-publicized but categorically denied by Pakistan “surgical strikes” of 2016 were the first rung on the escalation ladder. In 2019, India stepped one more rung up the escalation ladder and used airpower to deliver ammunition inside mainland Pakistan. Then there are recurrent attempts by the Indian Navy’s submarines to intrude in Pakistan’s territorial waters only to be detected by Pakistan Navy.
Given the step-by-step escalatory context, an Indian BrahMos intruding deep into Pakistan and India subsequently acting with utmost flippancy, could not be anything except a deliberate Indian ploy to assess Pakistan’s potential response if India climbs one more rung up the escalation ladder and uses BrahMos or any other missile to hit some illusionary target in Pakistan – most likely for domestic political gains as previously has been the case.
The second discourse likewise argues that it was an advertent launch but the underlying cause being offered relates to India’s ”counterforce temptations” and resulting force posture development. That India is quickly advancing to mature a dependable counterforce posture and provided BrahMos is dual-capable and claimed to be one of the most accurate weapons in India’s inventory, it suits aptly into the counterforce weapons category, especially to be used against Pakistan’s battlefield nuclear-capable weapons systems. Hence, the argument that the deliberate launch of an unarmed BrahMos was primarily aimed at assessing Pakistan’s military response to India’s potential counterforce adventures.
As for the potential ramifications of the convictions and discourses (supra), there is widespread consensus among Pakistan’s strategic circles that had it not been an unarmed missile or had it hit some potential civilian or military target leading to casualties, Pakistan’s response would have been exactly in line with its declaratory policy of “Quid pro-Quo Plus”. In fact, as per some media reports, Pakistan did contemplate a retaliatory response to the intruding missile but only after inferring that it was an unarmed missile and that ultimately it did not cause any significant damage, did the authorities in Pakistan hold back.
However, the recent display of maturity and restraint is unlikely to become a customary Pakistani response to each Indian adventure or misadventure in the future. Provided Pakistan faces a militarily superior and bent on hegemonizing its neighbors’ adversary in India – which is always predisposed to draw erroneous conclusions about Pakistan’s resolve and capabilities – the “Quid pro-Quo Plus” is likely to come into play and unquestionably would have unsavory consequences for planners in New Delhi as was displayed in 2019.
Provided no missile defense system can intercept a supersonic cruise missile, the only way to dissuade India from embarking on a future BrahMos misadventure is “deterrence through punishment”, which entails that Pakistan should demonstrate ample capability and resolve to respond to any of India’s future shenanigans with double the ferocity so as not to allow the relevant circles in New Delhi to draw erroneous and misplaced inferences.
