The Impact of Data Science on the Energy Industry
Big data science is altering the energy industry, as it is in many other industries, by providing insights into cost reductions in down markets and allowing oil producers to respond to market demands in boom times.
Algorithms, data tools, sensors, Internet of Things (IoT) devices, machine learning, and data mining approaches have all advanced dramatically. As a result, it has been demonstrated that big data analysis can give a data-driven approach in:
• Using smart sensor data and machine learning techniques, optimise the heating and cooling system.
• Analyze data usage patterns to optimise maintenance, efficiency, and life span of current solar panel technology.
• Allow algorithms to be developed to foresee and predict changes in solar and wind conditions. To increase the efficiency of clean energy production, such systems make use of data regarding weather, environment, and atmospheric conditions.
• Assist in the development of low-cost solutions for emerging countries by analysing data from mobile phones to predict usage trends and better manage batteries and power sources. To make energy last as long as feasible, these predictive models can be used to modify the brightness of lights and slow down the rate of cell charging.
• Optimise yield and enhance equipment maintenance schedules by employing satellite imagery and remote sensing technology to improve oil-field production.
• Assist regulators in making more informed and sustainable energy-comprehensive decisions.
Big data for solar and wind energy management has been a hot topic of discussion. The main issue with wind and solar is that they do not produce enough power when natural resources are scarce. During these periods, methods such as gas, coal, or nuclear power must be used to make up for the deficiency.
Data analysis and computational models can determine the highs and lows of power usage, as well as when there is a surplus, by collecting data on usage and combining it with other sensory information. These models can be used for a variety of purposes, including:
• Estimate when and how much fossil fuels will be required in order to limit the amount consumed and carbon pollution.
• Determine the best sites for turbines depending on consumption and available resources.
• To reduce power waste, improve and implement a more efficient backup facility.
• Run aspects of the utility industry more efficiently, resulting in cost savings.
Big data analytics and machine learning have enormous potential in the sector of clean and renewable energy. There are numerous advantages that computer science may provide in terms of improving the future sustainability of our ecosystem. A tried-and-true innovation method is transferring ideas and methodologies across sectors. According to Francisco Sanchez, president of Houston Energy Data Science, “the energy industry has lately started to incorporate the survival analysis approach from the medical field.” Survival analysis is a statistical method used in medicine to assess patient survival rates depending on their condition, therapies, and other factors. This approach has been applied to field equipment in the oil and gas industry.
“Through monitoring and modelling, survival analysis is utilised to estimate the maintenance requirements for field equipment such as compressors,” Sanchez explains. Instead of shutting down an oil well for three days to repair damage caused by equipment failure, he claims that preemptive data science-enabled action may cut downtime to only one day. A day’s worth of free time is priceless. At current pricing, a day’s production at a small facility – 1,000 barrels of oil – equals $30,000 in revenue.
“It’s critical to start with the business challenge before diving into technologies and approaches,” Francisco Sanchez argues. Predicting output, enhancing field efficiency, and understanding geological activity are all common commercial concerns in the energy industry. “Big companies like BP and Halliburton have already used data science methodologies. “I see a huge possibility for small businesses with less sophisticated data to win by bringing on one or two expert data scientists,” Sanchez says.
“In the oil and gas industry, you have a lot of data to deal with, and putting it all together takes time.” I’ve seen projects where some data is stored in Oracle databases, while drilling data is stored in other databases, and economic and seismic data is stored in yet another system. “Tools like Hadoop and NoSQL are required to bring all of this data together,” Sanchez explains.
“In terms of specific tools, it will be determined by the problem’s complexity. I recommend looking at machine learning tools if you’re working on an issue with more than 50 variables. “One option to examine is Random Forest, which is provided by Salford Systems,” he says. R and Python are included in the data science toolset for additional applications. He continues, “Tibco and Tableau are useful visualisation tools for presenting the data.”
Consulting firms and analysts have traditionally given value to the sector through their specific knowledge, and the same is true in the case of analytics and energy. Another method to create value with data science is to organise and show data in an usable way.
“As a data analyst, I spend the majority of my time visualising rig and drilling performance.” I’ve developed data collection techniques that allow me to compile hundreds of data sources into tidy packages for display and performance evaluation. My company then sells this material at a higher price than the market norm. Because many firms lack in-house capabilities for these operations, the market pays a premium for explanatory data visualisations, according to Graham Eckel, a former analyst with Precision Drilling in Calgary, Alberta.
“There are still lots of data opportunities in the energy business.” It begins with the implementation of data gathering, cleansing, and storage systems and processes. One method to get started is to hire a data scientist to design the architecture and supervise the execution. “Once you have that in place, you can start generating predictive insights,” adds Eckel.
“We believe that without real-time visibility, misunderstanding will arise. When the time comes to sell that capacity to the markets, the grid, if you don’t know what technologies are available in the market, how much is the capacity of your property, if you don’t know how much money you are going to pour on the solar, you’re in a panic. That is not a simple or straightforward experience.” Says Mahmudul Hasan, Founder and CEO of Nexergy, a cleantech startup based in New York. He adds, “As a result, we place a great priority on real-time data at Nexergy. We’ve combined technologies to allow us to stream data streams and ingesting databases of time series data, and we’ve applied it to the energy sector. Big data is influencing the future of renewable energy. Weather forecasting using data science could be advantageous to renewable energy sources like wind and solar. It can be used to assist homeowners in deciding whether or not to go solar by estimating costs and savings. It can also be used to streamline management and day-to-day operations in order to assist new renewable energy firms in attracting investors. Renewable energy companies can use cutting-edge analytics to gain valuable insights into how to better manage the system and forecast the amount of energy that can be used in the power grid or conserved for later use.”
Hasan claims that Nexergy intends to give all-in-one solutions for households to decide on solar installation, upgrades, and maintenance. “Nexergy calculates the solar savings by estimating the cost of solar installation and upgrades, as well as financing possibilities, depending on the roof size and shape, shaded roof areas, local weather, local power rates, solar costs, and projected incentives over time. We provide information on solar potentials, incentives, legal and regulatory requirements, and geolocation based on the 2010 United States Census, National Renewable Energy Laboratory meteorological data, EPA GHG Equivalencies, Department of Energy SLED State & Local Energy Data, and Google Maps. When a user enters his address and some basic information into the Nexergy system, Nexergy pulls real-time data from integrated resources and shows it to the user for free.” He also claims Nexergy is working on integrating real-time energy prices based on the geolocation of the user and developing a system that allows a microgrid or homeowner to track solar costs, savings, and carbon emissions. “A microgrid operator/homeowner, for example, can utilise Nexergy data to decide the best time, method, and technology to install or replace solar panels, as well as make energy-related decisions. All of these applications need a significant amount of data collection and processing.” Hasan explains.
Big data and data analytics have been used in the energy business for years to improve production and service offerings such as utilities. More data scientists will be needed to optimise the performance of solar and wind farms as clean energy becomes more profitable. By 2050, renewable energy is expected to account for half of all energy sources. When it comes to clean energy, other technological advancements such as battery technology and long-distance energy exchanges will add more responsibilities for data scientists to keep track of. This emphasises the relevance of big data in optimising renewable energy and transforming it into a future energy source. Data science will be in high demand for sustainable energy in the near future as well as in the long run.
The Maneuvering Of Gas Commodities As Securitization Of Russia’s Geopolitical Position
Authors: Luky Yusgiantoro and Tri Bagus Prabowo
In 2012, the Yakutia-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipeline project was redeveloped under The Power of Siberia (News Ykt, 2012). Putin legalized Gazprom (contractors: Gazprom Transgaz Tomsk). The idea named “Power of Siberia” represents the power of gas pipelines to shape and influence Russia’s geopolitical and geoeconomic situation. A new identity will be launched, conveying the Yakutia-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok gas pipeline and gaining international prominence. The Power of Siberia project is an integrated form of GTS (Gas Transmission System) that will bring the Irkutsk gas region in the fertile eastern part of Russia to the Far East and China. The pipeline location is located in the “Far East,” incredibly close to the border with China, and generally in the Asia-Pacific region. Initially, this gas pipeline was built to facilitate gas trade with China and reduce China’s dependence on coal (Pipeline Journal, 2022). What is the value of this project for both countries to become global concerns?
Furthermore, they have the ability or range to carry gas communications for approximately 4000 km. Due to its geographical proximity and shared economic interests, China is Russia’s most progressive partner in terms of a multifaceted regional and international strategy. Russia and China are known as close partners. The aftermath of Russia’s political alliance was to regain global power, status, and influence lost after the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991, which was the driving force behind the end of the Cold War (Oualaalou, 2021 ). Russia has articulated a vision of rebuilding its global reputation using energy, military might, intelligence, and diplomacy. Russia wants to play a crucial role in the global multipolar system because the West rejects Russia’s vision for a new geopolitical order. They saw many important events related to Russia’s moves in the international order, including its response to the actions of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to try to dominate the nations of the world. The former Soviet Union (East), the failures in the Middle East, the annexation of Crimea, and one of Moscow’s recent invasions of Ukraine mark the military as a turning point in Russian geopolitical politics, especially during the Putin era. Russia has three strategic initiative points, including the ability to deploy and interconnect the means (intelligence, diplomacy, military, cyber, and energy) to gain influence and extend Russia’s global footprint. There is.
Moreover, the Fallacies and Western Ties strategy contradicts America First foreign policy tenets (unipolar) and impulsive decisions as a security threat. Russia wants to maintain its lack of regional interests in certain Baltic states (those still under Russian control) and the Balkans (Cooley, 2017). The Balkans (Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Slovenia, and Serbia) have been the cornerstones of great power rivalry for centuries. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the EU (European Union) used the momentum of Yugoslavia’s dissolution in the 1990s to integrate the Balkans as geopolitical hotspots on the Western Front (European Policy). War analysts say the ongoing Ukraine conflict is a way for Russia to raise its stakes in the Balkans and reassert its regional influence (McBride, 2022).
In 2020, natural gas will still be the world’s third-largest primary energy requirement for the global community. Even though the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2019, demand for natural gas increased by 5.3% to 4 trillion cubic meters (TCM) in 2021 (BP, 2022). In 2021, Russia’s total natural gas production will be 701.7 billion cubic meters, the second largest globally, contributing to the strong demand in the global energy market. Russia is essential in the natural gas market (Sonnichsen, 2022). The climate crisis is the most obvious obstacle in the global gas market model. It originates from burning carbon with materials derived from fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas, and coal. However, natural gas is acceptable during the energy transition as it burns the least carbon dioxide (CO2) and pollutants of these three substances (EIA, 2022). It is easier than supplying a gas infrastructure that does not provide infrastructure. Operationally, it is optimal. Talks about climate protection, the climate crisis, and the energy transition are being shaped by Western countries as a way of highlighting Europe’s dependence on gas from Russia, which is geographically accessible and still has gas in other gas reserves. The decision to stop sourcing natural gas from Russia continues to cause European controversy. The pipeline network actively built between Russia and Europe is an essential aspect of why this relationship is used as a tool for Russia to apply pressure—on territorial Europe. Europe uses a climate scenario, and Russia uses a gas-dependent scenario. Efficiency and effectiveness will not be achieved if Europe suddenly has to look for other reserves or switch entirely to this energy mix. Then, with Russia’s eloquence in exploiting the situation and the status quo, natural gas pipelines were used as a form of Russian energy diplomacy to dominate its (European) neighbors. Recognizing that the Western natural gas market is no longer preconditioned, moving target consumers to the Asia-Pacific region is one of the most effective energy plans for Russia’s fossil fuel expansion.
Siberia’s first electricity will cost 770 billion rubles, and the investment in gas production will cost 430 billion rubles. The 1,400 mm natural gas pipeline capacity will increase to 61 billion cubic meters (2.2 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas annually. The pipeline lets the world see natural gas as one of the fossil fuels and does not pollute the air with the carbon and other substances of the climate crisis. , through the capital Beijing and down to Shanghai. According to state media, the intermediate phase will go online in December 2020, with the final southern section expected to start delivering gas in 2025 (Cheng, 2022). Through this agreement, Russia aims to extend its power beyond Mongolia into Siberia 2 in 2030 (IEA, 2022). Conditions for Europe to get 40% of natural gas from Russian pipelines. Germany, in particular, sources about half of its natural gas from Russia (Baldwin, 2022). Despite international media reports of embargoes and sanctions, the crisis has hit Europe hard. Europe must adapt its economic policies to politically justified policies and coordinate them with each other. However, this is a geopolitical struggle, and we must ensure that the country retains its absolute superiority. Russia chooses to invest in and plan for natural gas markets in regions that require or depend on natural gas in the energy sector, i.e., Asia-Pacific via China. China, influencing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plan, is reshaping the geoeconomic position of Russia’s Siberia 1 and Siberia 2 power markets (Lukin, 2021). “Geopolitics is all about leverage” is one of Thomas Friedman’s influential geopolitical maxims. If a country cannot expand its influence, it remains a loser. Nevertheless, Russia is far from this analogy, as mentioned earlier. Russia continues to secure its geopolitical position. It is the embodiment of growing confidence in the reliability of natural gas. Russia still wants to become a major player in natural gas.
Remapping the EU’s Energy Partners to Ensure Energy Security and Diversification
Energy security has been a buzz word in Brussels for a few decades but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, followed by sanctions, Russian gas cut-off and physical destruction of North Stream pipelines, forecasts on strained EU energy production due to drought, the stakes have gotten much higher. This was confirmed on March 10th by a joint statement by the US President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, reiterating both parties’ determination to “build clean energy economies and industrial bases”, including clean hydrogen and continue to work together “to advance energy security and sustainability in Europe by diversifying sources, lowering energy consumption, and reducing Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels”.
Last week, the EU energy chief Kadri Simson encouraged all Member States and all companies to “stop buying Russian LNG, and not to sign any new gas contracts with Russia. The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and replaced around two-thirds of Russian gas last year.
In this context, the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), delivering Azerbaijani gas through (Trans-Anatolian Pipeline) TANAP and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to the EU, plays a key role in current diversification efforts. The EU increased gas imports via pipelines from Azerbaijan from 8.1 bcm to 11.4 bcm last year. Only two years after its completion, the expansion of the Corridor seems to be likely as the EU and Azerbaijan stroke a deal in July 2021 to double the volume of gas delivery to 20 bcm by 2027 in addition to plans to tap into Azerbaijan’s renewables potential, such as offshore wind and green hydrogen. While encouraging Azerbaijan’s accession to the Global Methane Pledge, the deal aims at collecting natural gas that would otherwise be vented, flared, or released into the atmosphere.
With the opening of the interconnector Greece-Bulgaria (IGB), at least 11.6 bcm of gas is expected to be delivered from Azerbaijan to the EU this year. The IGB has been dubbed as a game-changer for the EU’s energy security, especially as it enabled supplies to Bulgaria and Romania. A Memorandum of Understanding on gas supplies between Azerbaijan and Hungary was also signed this year, which shows that more interconnectors will be needed in the EU if TANAP would be expanded from 16 to 32 bcm and TAP from 10 to 20 bcm.
Moreover, investments will be needed to increase gas production in existing and new gas fields (Shah Deniz, Azeri Chiraq Guneshli, Absheron, Shafaq-Asiman, Umid-Babek, etc.), especially considering growing energy demand in Azerbaijan and its neighbours. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, 10 European countries turned to Azerbaijan to increase existing supplies or to secure new supplies. To meet such growing demands, Azerbaijan is poised to increase cooperation with neighbouring states, such as Turkmenistan, which is home to 50 trillion cubic metres of gas reserves – the world’s 4th largest reserves.
Following the Azerbaijani-Turkmen decision to jointly develop the formerly disputed Dostluq gas field, a trilateral swap deal between Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan, and the 2018 Convention on the status of the Caspian Sea by all the littoral states; Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey stated that they were looking “to form a coordinated and multi-option system for delivering energy resources to global markets” on December 14th last year.
These developments could be harbingers of a new Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP), a 180-mile under-sea pipeline that could be integrated into the SGC. Labelled as an EU Project of Common Interest, which could also be eligible for funding under the 2019 US European Energy Security and Diversification Act, this strategic under-sea pipeline project could bring an end to the EU’s energy crisis by securing a cheap source of natural gas, whose price is independent of LNG prices while counterbalancing Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in Central Asia and beyond. On the other hand, Azerbaijan began the transit of oil from Kazakhstan this year in addition to Turkmenistan, which highlights the potential to use the Middle Corridor for hydrocarbons.
During the 9th Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting and 1st Green Energy Advisory Council Ministerial Meeting in Baku in February, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson stated “Azerbaijan can potentially become the exporter of renewables and hydrogen to the EU”. At the end of last year Azerbaijan, Georgia, Romania, and Hungary agreed to establish a green corridor to supply the EU with around four gigawatts of electricity generated by windfarms in Azerbaijan with the support of the European Commission.
Over the last several months, Azerbaijan signed documents that will provide investments to create 22 gigawatts of renewable sources of energy, both onshore and offshore. In April 2021, the World Bank started funding the offshore wind development in Azerbaijan, which has a potential of 157 GW. In addition to the Caspian Sea, which ranks second in world for its wind energy potential, Azerbaijan has an estimated 27GW in wind and solar power onshore.The current construction of wind and solar plants in Alat (230 MW), Khizi and Absheron (240 MW) and Jabrayil (240 MW) as well as new investment plans, including in Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, are expected to further boost renewables production in the Caspian state all by living up to its vast green potential. While the country, with a population of 10 million, accounts for only 0.15% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, it defines green growth as a key priority for 2030. The EU supports the implementation of Baku’s Paris Agreement commitments through the EU4Climate initiative.
The Russia-Ukraine war may create a window opportunity for the EU to engage in concrete actions rather than high-flying buzzwords, pushing the bloc to do more strategic and visionary planning regarding future projects linked to its energy security, such as TCGP, and finally diversify away from Russian energy sources for good. Azerbaijan has proved to be a stable partner in these challenging times, which manifested the vulnerability of certain EU states against Russian economic and political pressure due to Gazprom’s immense infiltration of their gas markets for the past several decades. Now it’s the time to play fair game by a new playbook and to remap the European energy partners while investing in a stable, predictable, affordable, and sustainable energy future for the EU.
The Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian War on European Energy Security
Oil and gas prices have skyrocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February 2022, which has already had an impact on the global economy. 30% of global wheat is grown in Russia and Ukraine. Sunflower seed oil accounts for 71%; corn and barley account for 26%; and vegetable oil accounts for 11%. Agricultural fertilizers and raw materials such as sulphur are among Russia’s most important exports. Wheat prices have surged to a record high since the invasion of the Black Sea ports, which has stifled economic activity.
Economic forecasters often foresee higher worldwide inflation and weaker global GDP growth. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates inflation to rise to 5.7% in developed countries and 8.7% in emerging market and developing economies this year, respectively, representing increases of 1.8% and 2.8% above the predictions made in January. Down 0.8 percent from January, the global economy is forecast to grow at 3.6 percent. There has been a major shock to commodity markets, which will continue to keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook research.
In 2022, the price of energy is expected to rise by 50% before falling again in the following two years. Price increases in agriculture and metals are predicted to begin in 2022, then fall. Commodity prices are expected to remain above their five-year average for the time being. Prices could rise and become more unpredictable in the event of a prolonged conflict or further sanctions against Russia.
By the end of this year, European leaders hope to reduce EU gas dependency by two-thirds. Initiatives like the IEA’s 10-point strategy are critical to ensuring global energy security. Energy efficiency, delaying the decommissioning of nuclear plants, and significantly expanding the use of renewable energy sources are all viable policy options. Supply and efficiency will rise, but so will the use of coal to replace natural gas and growing commodity prices for electric vehicle batteries and solar PV panels, which are counteracting these trends. The transition is hampered by the lack of energy security.
We don’t know how long the conflict will last, how far it will escalate, or whether or not new countermeasures can prevent Russian oil and gas from reaching the markets. The ease and means of gas replacement vary by industry. The most effective means of reducing the carbon footprint of European energy use is through increased production and increased use of renewable energy sources. In order to replace gas with coal, which is more expensive due to the conflict, they will not suffice. Coal is being phased out for the time being. Six percent of natural gas supply loss in 2024 will be due to coal. Several countries, with the exception of Germany, see a short-term benefit from delaying nuclear retirements and increasing the use of existing nuclear assets. Nuclear power generating accounts for one-third of the shortfall in natural gas.
Due to the war, the cost of bioenergy has not increased, and it is possible to grow bioenergy (primarily from sewage and waste) in the coming years. Bioenergy fills in the energy gap to the tune of 20%. Europe’s main energy independence program, a rapid expansion of renewable energy, has had little impact. Two years is needed to fill Russia’s 10% gas import shortfall. As time goes on, the impact grows more and larger. More than half of the world’s gas needs will be met by renewable energy sources like solar PV and wind power by 2030.
Battery costs will rise, postponing half of new car sales in Europe until 2028 as a result of rising material costs. Long-term decarbonization is hampered and oil decline is postponed as a result. EV subsidies may need to be increased in countries with high 2030 decarbonization goals. By contrast, in 2024, gas use is expected to be 9 percent lower than it was in pre-war time. The use of heat pumps will displace some of the gas currently used in construction by the year 2030, according to our estimates. Improved energy efficiency minimizes the amount of energy needed.
Europe will increase its gas production by 12 percent by 2030 as a result of recent industry responses to rising oil and gas prices and a commitment by the EU to distribute more gas. Global oil use will climb somewhat in the 2030s due to overinvestment that will lower oil and gas prices after 2025. The invasion in Ukraine will delay nuclear retirements, which are a global priority. Faster deployment of renewable energy sources, improved energy efficiency, and slower economic growth are critical over the medium term. Between 2022 and 2030, European emissions are reduced by 580 Mt, or 2.3%, as a result of the Ukraine conflict.
Food, gasoline, and gas costs have all increased as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. There is a need for a new agricultural and political economic strategy due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and severe supply chain disruptions. To avoid a humanitarian crisis, Kyiv halted food shipments in March. The harvest for this year will be lessened if there is war. In the east, farming infrastructure and equipment have been devastated by the conflict. Ukrainian wheat supplies could be cut by a fifth in 2022, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Due to the fact that the next crop will not be cultivated in war, future harvests are in danger. The world’s leading wheat producer, Russia, has had its supply cut back due to sanctions. A productivist development model centred on extractive industries has resulted in environmental deterioration and natural resource exhaustion.
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