Russia Ukraine war: The Expectations of the International system

Seeing as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the enhanced developments that followed it, the subsequent intervention of Russian Militaries in the Ukrainian depth, and the adoption by a group of Western states of several sanctions against Russia, many questions have been raised regarding the intentions that made matters develop in an escalating and unprecedented manner, as well as the possible implications of what It takes place on global peace and security, and at the level of the future of the international system, mainly concerning the Armed conflict within Europe, and among the parties that have their strong strategic position at the regional and international stages.

Since, the end of the ” Cold War-era ”  and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States, with the support of close Western allies in Europe, has tried to impose its new foreign policy ideology on international relations, benefiting from the confusion that has reigned. At the international phase, with the flare-up of political and military circumstances in several countries in the world, and the unwillingness of European states are not ready enough to contain it due to the current international crises.

Yet,  In the sense of these current world political transformations and challenges in which the United States seemed to monopolize the controlling of many international issues and crises according to its foreign policy vision while working to direct the United Nations to serve its outcomes and strategies, Meanwhile, Russia was focused on reorganizing its internal affairs, and facing the political, economic, and security consequences resulting from the disintegration of the Soviet Union Which reinforced the increasing American ambitions, aimed at forming a unipolar world order, and pushing for the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which was founded at the height of the Cold War in 1949 as aspects of arms race to include a many of (former) Soviet Union states such as Lithuania and Estonia.

Regarding the rising tension over Ukraine, it is quite clear that the American Administration in line with EU allies have been pushing China and Russia into an armed conflict over the disputed issues in both regions as some News media have mentioned, despite Beijing and Moscow have emphasized their setting to take part in negotiations. Looking at the recent Ukraine standoff as a case, Despite Putin having contended that NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe directly jeopardizes regional security and stability, the American administration and its NATO allies have knowingly disregarded the Russian security concerns and key interests as a great power.

So far, some European states illustrate their desire to be liberated from the growing American hegemony within the European security system, and to create independent regional security within the structure of the European Union, after the latter managed to overcome the problems that were left at the end of World War II in its various indices, and achieved economic might and political benefits. Which explains the divergence in attitudes between the White House administration on the one side, and the orientations of several European states, regarding many major international cases and issues like the Iranian nuclear file and the Syrian crisis.

Currently, Chinese President Xi Jinping has underlined deepening strategic cooperation and partnership between Beijing and Russia in terms of sovereignty, security, and development with special concern on the safeguard of national interests from foreign involvement and regional perils. To that end, China cautioned the Biden Administration over Russia’s legitimate security concerns and advocated Russia’s claims for security guarantees in Europe. PRC refused the further movement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and counseled the North Atlantic Alliance to toss the mindset of the Cold War era.

Geopolitically, many considerations impose themselves in the Ukraine war, with Russia’s determination on implementing its military agenda inside Ukraine on the one hand, and the insistence of some Western countries on imposing political, financial, and economic sanctions on Moscow on the other. Many indicators show that Moscow is aware of its rough choice and its immediate and future implications. It has failed to issue a resolution condemning it from within the Security Council, in which it enjoys permanent membership and the right to veto. It also holds plenty of pressure cards, such as strategic allies particularly China, as well as its massive nuclear arsenal and its stock of gas and oil.  

Diplomatically speaking, China and Russia have recently signed a shared protocol on a new strategic partnership based on the open multipolarity concept, international law-based world order,  respect territorial sovereignty, and relationship among world powers based on favorable outcome cooperation. The shared protocol objected to the enforcement of unilateral policies tackling global issues, such as non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, unilateral sanctions, dominating power politics, and confrontation between the superpowers.

Obviously, given all the parties—the U.S,  the EU, NATO, and Ukraine, have different ways of diplomatic contact with Putin Russia, it is urgent for them to sustained seeking to solve their differences through diplomacy and negotiations. This is the consent reached by many members of the UNSC, which have also made frequent efforts to end up this conflict. China has asserted that at a time when negotiation is underway and substantial diplomacy progress has yet to be made, it is irrational for the U.S. Administration to take actions to overreact the tensions over Ukraine instead of resolving it.

There is no doubt that what is happening today in Ukraine will open up the discussion once again concerning the future of European security and stability and its relations with the United States, especially with the announcement of Germany towards unprecedented armaments. Yet, the rapid developments and current war circumstances refer to major changes that will shake the foundations of the existing international system, with which many states find themselves in a  critical situation in which it is difficult to choose between positioning on the Western side of that, which is reminiscent of the conditions of the Cold War, but there are other European that have absorbed These variables took the initiative to reconsider their relations and arrangement, to ensure the protection of their interests.

In case of the war extend, Ukraine will be ended militarily, and Russia will struggle financially, meantime; EU will lose long-standing energy security and stability. and the whole world will endure economically. The US administration and its allies may advent to benefit from Russia’s weakness by boosting arms and oil exports, but in the end, it will lose credibility and consistency internationally. Therefore, China will arise prudent, experiencing from Russian war on Ukraine and considering the stake profile of the US.

Briefly, the US  did not consider Putin’s demands for a ceasefire on the war in Ukraine regarding NATO enlargement as well as the refusal to deploy a strike system near the Russian border. Therefore, Ukraine -Russian War needs more peace talks rather than escalation. Equally a stable Ukraine surely benefits NATO and the peace of the European region. In all possibilities, Moscow and Beijing believe that Biden will not fight for Ukraine, and therefore this opportunity must be seized to change the current international system.

Jamal Laadam
Jamal Laadam
Dr. Jamal Ait Laadam, Specialist in North African and Western Sahara Issue, at Jilin University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).