With the postponement of US-ASEAN summit, the likely agenda for the said meeting does not change much. The meeting which was expected to be held by the end of March 2022 was postponed because many of the member states of the ASEAN organisation were not available on those dates. President Joe Biden had offered to host the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian nations (ASEAN) on March 28th and 29th at Washington DC.
The Russia-Ukraine war, problems in Southeast Asia, developments in South China Sea and issues related to post pandemic economic growth were are seen as important aspects which would be discussed in the forthcoming US ASEAN summit meeting. Under the meeting, the US was very insistent on the fact that issues such as the military rule in Myanmar which has completed more than one year need to be addressed by the ASEAN member states. Further with the release of the Indo-Pacific strategy document by the US administration on February 8th, it was expected that US would be trying to highlight its major agenda items and possible future blueprint for the Southeast Asia nations to consider and cooperate in this regard. Biden administration is trying to clearly project to the Southeast Asia nations that US is equally committed to the security of this region and would undertake measures show that the confidence in US administration is restored.
The ASEAN summit meeting banned the military junta in its October 2021 meeting but following the visit of the Cambodian premier Hun Sen(current ASEAN Chair country), to Myanmar it was expected that there would be some rapprochement between the military junta and the concerns of the ASEAN member states. President Joe Biden is insistent on the fact that only nine ASEAN member states and their representatives would be called for the Washington DC summit meeting. During the last two years there have been apprehensions with regard to US approach to the region Under President Joe Biden guidance US administration has made extra efforts so that the vice president of US Kamala Harris, US Défense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken visited this region in various months during the last year. The US administration has also proposed to look into the Indo-Pacific security architecture while at the same time putting its commitment to the Indo Pacific larger framework involving political dialogue and economic integration. In terms of economic interactions between the two sides it has been proposed that Indo-Pacific economic framework need to be worked among the participating nations which could focus on technology, resilient supply chains, digital economy, clean energy, and addressing common security challenges under a specified protocol and arrangement.
While the Indo-Pacific economic framework is still the work in progress but the ASEAN member nations have been working overtime to implement the larger framework of 4th industrial revolution and incorporate the requirements and futuristic technologies to adapt to the artificial intelligence, machine learning, and develop efficient manufacturing units. During the 2020 summit the US has proposed that it will be working with ASEAN nations in developing their health emergencies, new kinds of vaccines, integrating scientific research labs with US institutions, and providing fellowship to the young scientists working in the South East Asian nations. The US vision was primarily shaped by the need for undertaking manufacturing and research in low-cost vaccines and commission different phases of testing of new kinds of medicines and vaccines on the targeted population living in Southeast Asia. The joint venture in the development of medicines was envisaged and also allocation of funds was made by the US health department.
The coordinating country for US-ASEAN relations is Indonesia and it has been working very hard to work on mutually able dates. However, there have been problems with regard to firming up on one date given the fact that the US National Security Council, the Department of State, and the White House need to converge to agreeable dates so as to fix up the dates for the US ASEAN summit meeting. In fact, the holy month of Ramadan starts from April 1st as a result of which many of the ASEAN member nations and their representatives might be fasting during the month of April.
Under Obama administration the first special US ASEAN summit meeting took place in February 2016 while under the Trump administration the proposed meeting which was to be held in March 2020 in Las Vegas was postponed due to COVID-19 pandemic. The US has been facing challenges with regard to naming of its ambassador for the ASEAN secretariat while it was one of the first countries to set up a diplomatic mission for ASEAN. Many dialogue partners of the organization have already appointed ASEAN ambassadors to look into better coordination between the ASEAN nations and the respective Foreign Offices. The Biden administration is especially concerned with regard to developments in Ukraine and the post withdrawal Afghanistan situation, and it is going to highlight the challenges which are being faced by the international community given the assertive China and Russia in the wake of developments in Ukraine and South China Sea. The US administration is also very keen on selling this idea that any camaraderie between Russia and China would not be beneficial for the security of the ASEAN nations. The increasing collaboration between Russia and China would again bring to the fore the challenges which were witnessed by the Southeast Asian nations during the Cold War.
Strategic analysts and foreign policy experts from different quarters speculate about the possible agenda for the summit. It is also seen with apprehension given the fact that US need to buttress its commitment to this region as the 45th anniversary of the US ASEAN relations around the corner. The interim document related to Indo-Pacific which was released after president Biden came into power is seen as a rehash of the Trump era document about the US strategy related to Indo-Pacific. However, it has more specificities given in the text. US is trying to cajole few of the important ASEAN member countries into its fold so as to subscribe to the Indo-Pacific strategy which includes Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore.
ASEAN nations view stability and peace in the region as critical for their growth but at the same time want to subscribe to the US Indo-Pacific strategy on their own terms. The Biden administration is celebrating the year 2022 as the ‘Indo Pacific Year’ and is trying very hard to market its new detailed Indo-Pacific strategy document The US National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs Kurt Campbell has been holding monthly meetings with ambassador from ASEAN countries in the US and is meant to showcase US partnership with countries in China’s periphery. The dialogue between Kurt Campbell and the ASEAN ambassadors is also designed to bring about more US participation in the affairs of the Southeast Asian nations and exhort the Southeast Asian nations to keep China at an arm’s length. With the withdrawal of the US from the TransPacific Partnership (TPP), it was expected that US interest in the larger free trade agreement of the Asia Pacific was lost but US wants to bring about its own version of supply chain resilience and look for joint ventures and better investment opportunities for the US companies in this region. One of the major areas where U.S. companies have been equally interested is automation, developing energy industry, military sales and oil and gas exploration projects in South China Sea and nearby regions. China has been trying to cajole the South East Asia nations to subscribe to its concept of peace and stability under the good neighbourliness treaty concept which it envisaged about 5 years back. The US-ASEAN Summit therefore has become all the more important and critical for US interests in the region.
