After World War 2, the arch rivalry between US and Soviet Union made a new mark in history. The world was on the verge of complete vanishment when the cold war broke the backbone of the Soviet Union. And that’s how it ended. The conclusion of cold war resulted in the dominance of the US all over the world. Russia isolated, sanctioned and the target of victor’s revenge, was considered a frail state. It was thought that it might never dare to challenge the sole hegemon again. But the bubble burst when Russia launches a military invasion on 24 February; 2022. The international community claims it to be an offensive attack against an independent state. The question arises, is it really an offensive attack or was Russia threatened by Ukraine joining NATO. NATO, a military alliance formed to counter Russia, former Soviet Union; won’t it pose any threat to the current Russian Federation? Considering the whole scenario, was Putin’s reaction an illegitimate one? In this realist world, every state has to secure its boundaries to ensure its existence, so how could Russia close its eyes when the threat was at its doorstep?
The Russo-Ukrainian war has been the center of debate in the entire world. It has proved that Russia is emerging as an important player in International Politik, which has shaken the White House. Despite all the claims of influence and order, the international community has failed to stop aggressive Russia. Biden, the UN, and European Union have proved to be the mere spectators delivering statements and imposing impactless sanctions. It is evident that Putin is unstoppable, and can proceed towards Poland and other states as well. Sometimes, it seems that the world is appeasing Putin to stop, protecting the world from going into a full-blown war. History has witnessed, how appeasement policies have failed to stop the aggressor and resulted in massive destruction. The whole world crashes when war begins. On the other hand, it also seems that the world will spectate a shift from uni-polarity to bipolarity or multi-polarity when China steps into the scene.
China, which is another emerging player of international politics, has been seen modernizing its military for long. The expanding naval capabilities, its disagreements with the US on issues related to Taiwan, and its presence in the South China Sea. This shows that China’s stance on issues of its concern will be firm and unshakable. China’s role in Russo-Ukrainian War has been diplomatic. On one side it has shown willingness to initiate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whereas on the other it has refrained in UN meeting to vote against Russian invasion. As per the Chinese leadership, their relations with Russia have “no limits”. Both the states have stood by each other on many global issues and have good military, political, social, and economic ties. Keeping in view the current scenario and relations among states, it is comprehensible that if the Russo-Ukrainian crisis results in a paradigm shift of global politics China and Russia will be strong allies, leading the bloc.
Will US allow it to happen?
US has gained the current hegemony over the world by much effort. Cold War, Vietnam War, Iraq War, participation in proxies, 20 year Afghan war. During all these, US economy has faced major economic depressions. All these wars have subjected a great cost of human life and economy on the US. In short, the US has gained global dominance with much sweat and blood. Will it let go of its position or allow someone to challenge its position that easily? And if it reacts to protect its position, will it result in something destructive?
The answer to the former question is no, the US will not let go of its position so easily. But then the question arises, will it react violently or maintain its position along with maintaining the peace and order situation? There is a big possibility that intervention of the US in the current crisis will result in a full-fledged war. But if it does not do so, the crisis may result in a threat to US dominance. It will also threaten the US presence and say in the South China Sea, weakening its position in US-China trade war and China containment. Then what is the final solution?
In past, world has seen when Japan threatened US how it was countered and suppressed. Hiroshima and Nagasaki incident is big example set to refrain from challenging US. The two cities are facing the consequences of nuclear bombings till date. Unfortunately, this may become the fate of Russian cities or any ally of Russia if US or its dominance is jeopardized. And it has been proved from Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings.
Many analysts consider World War 3 idealistic, because of the notion that if war begins it will be a nuclear war and no state will take this risk. But the reality is, in this anarchical world it has happened that states went to war cost-benefit analysis, to grab their dominance. Hitler and his allies in World War 2 brought the whole world in to war to expand his power, without analyzing the cost which they will have to pay in the aftermath. The US intervened, dropped bombs on Japanese cities. And then the war ended with massive destruction. Taking Putin’s aggressive behavior into consideration, if the crisis is not controlled peacefully it may result in collectively assured destruction.
