A diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine is out of reach right now. The talks between the Ukrainian and Russian Foreign Ministers in Turkey on 10 March reaped no meaningful results. Looking forward, there are four ways this conflict can play out in the near term – military involvement from Western countries, continuous provision of military support to Ukraine to slow down Russia’s military advance, a diplomatic solution that involves acceding to some or all of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s demands, or using tough economic sanctions in the hope that Putin will halt the invasion. Worryingly, all these options are either undesirable or unrealistic, which means the war will continue for the foreseeable future.
Starting with the latter possibility, economic sanctions are unlikely to deter Putin, despite their severe consequences on the Russian economy. The rouble has collapsed, foreign businesses have pulled out of the country in droves, prices and interest rates are climbing. To make matters worse for Russia, Western allies are banning Russian oil, while the EU is aiming to end its reliance on Russian gas. Yet regardless of their severity, sanctions will not dissuade Putin, because his grip on power depends on getting a positive result out of this war. Putin’s popularity in Russia has increased since the start of the war, not least thanks to the Russian narrative that Ukraine is being “liberated” from neo-Nazis. But Putin’s approval ratings will depend on successes on the battlefield. Many Russian supporters of Putin will tolerate the negative impact of sanctions, as long as Russia is winning the war. Therefore, Putin cannot back down now. In fact, since the application of the economic sanctions, the Russian army has used even more vicious force by shelling cities.
A direct military involvement by Western allies, including by establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, is also unwelcome. As many have noted, this could lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, which could result in unimaginably terrible consequences. Western leaders have therefore rejected this option.
Western countries have chosen another alternative – provision of weapons to Ukraine to repel Russian attacks. The United States has recently sent a $350 million military aid package, while the EU is delivering arms worth $502 million. This tactic has worked so far. Putin’s hopes for a quick victory have evaporated, while the British Ministry of Defence has said that it is highly unlikely that Russia has achieved its planned objectives to date. However, there are several risks with this approach. Firstly, Putin may decide to use indiscriminate tactics to achieve his military goals. During a war with Chechnya in the early 2000s, to ensure victory for Russia, Putin obliterated its capital Grozny. If Putin decides to use the same method again, the number of casualties and refugees will grow substantially. Secondly, providing military support to Ukraine will slow down Russian military advances, but it’s unlikely to be enough to stop them outright, particularly in the south of Ukraine, where most military activity is currently taking place. If Russia succeeds in taking control of more cities, particularly Mariupol, which will create a corridor between Crimea and the Donbas region, Putin will likely add more demands to his existing list. He may insist that these cities and territories remain under Russian occupation, or he could decide to annex them.
This leaves the option of a diplomatic solution, but this would require acceding to Putin’s key demands – a neutral Ukraine, recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and recognition of the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk, the two breakaway regions in Donbas (eastern Ukraine). The Russian president has not budged on these conditions and has told several leaders, including French president Emmanuel Macron, that Moscow plans to achieve its aims either through diplomacy or military means.
Ukraine finds such demands unacceptable, but if Russia starts making military progress, Kiev’s hands might be tied. It is feasible that Ukraine could agree to become a militarily neutral state (meaning that Ukraine would not join NATO or any other military alliance). This could end the current war with Russia and might also prevent future conflicts between the two sides. Ukraine would, of course, need to receive guarantees from Russia and the West that its security would be assured. Ukraine would also insist on political and economic cooperation with Europe, with the view of one day joining the European Union. Russia should not object to this, as this would pose no security threat to its nation (similarly to Finland, which is an EU member but has a neutral military status). A closer bond with Europe is what most Ukrainians crave, and if military neutrality will facilitate this objective, then it could be a satisfactory path forward.
Accepting the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk “republics” and the status of Crimea as Russian territory would be more difficult, if not impossible. Giving them away to Russia would be considered appeasement to Putin and humiliation for Ukrainians. Pragmatically, it could be beneficial for Ukraine to let go of Crimea and the Donbas region. The majority of Crimeans genuinely want to be with Russia, while Luhansk and Donetsk also consider themselves culturally and politically closer to Russia. Relinquishing these regions would enable the rest of Ukraine to move in the direction of an eventual EU membership, without the heavy baggage of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, whose residents are opposed to closer ties with Europe. In theory, this could be a viable path forward, but Ukrainians are unlikely to agree to this. In addition to criticism of appeasement, acceding to Kremlin’s demands would also demonstrate to Putin that using military force to achieve state objectives works.
Ultimately, none of the available options look workable right now. Western military involvement would lead to a Europe-wide conflict. Supply of weapons to Ukraine works short-term but may not be enough to prevent Russia from occupying more Ukrainian cities. Economic sanctions will not stop Putin, while Ukraine is unlikely to agree to the Russian president’s demands. Which option becomes more viable will depend on whether any side gains the upper hand in the conflict. If, against all odds, Ukraine starts to dominate the conflict, there is a risk that Putin will consider using the “Chechnya war method” to prevent a defeat. Calls for Western intervention would grow. If the Russian army is successful in capturing more cities, there will be more pressure on Ukraine to accede to some of Putin’s demands. If Russia fails to make significant progress on the battlefield, Putin might be persuaded to drop some of his demands. Until then, the war will unfortunately continue.
