Understanding the ADF is the key to resolving future energy crises?

It was November 16 when Kampala, the Ugandan capital, was terrorized by suicide bombers who killed at least 3 people and injured 30 more. The attack on civilians, claimed by the Allied Democratic Forces(ADF), was not the only one in the same time span, as on December 11, during the ADF’s fire exchange with joint Ugandan and Congolese military forces, 16 people were killed in eastern DR Congo. Compared to the so far inert state of the aforementioned Islamic extremist group, several questions arise regarding why is there a recent surge in their action and how is it connected to the energy transition, what is actually their supporting mechanism and how can external global powers gain from disruption in the region.

Who are the ADF?

The Allied Democratic Forces(ADF) is a Central African insurgent group, comprising Salafi-jihadist but also nationalist elements, which began to operate in DR Congo in 1995. Through support from the Sudanese military sector, the group managed to perform its first violent attacks, including bombings in 1996 and 1999 in Kampala. After the Congo wars(1996-2003) the group significantly reduced its activity, until 2019, where the ADF, through the Islamic State, claimed responsibility over an attack in DRC. This change of events led, eventually, to 2021, where the terrorist group seems to have engaged in fully-fledged war against the Ugandan and Congolese armies, seeing its action rise to its peak. It presents great interest, hence, to understand why a region that was already known for its natural resource wealth, such as  gold and diamonds, is especially now seeing a spike in efforts to get destabilized.

Why is action taken now? How is energy connected to this?

DR Congo and the Great Lakes region have always been considered a blessed land. Rich in gold, copper, diamonds and uranium, there have always been serious grounds for global powers to exercise control over the region. This has led to several conflicts, including the world’s presumed bloodiest war after the World War II, the Congo War(1996-2003) . The post-war landscape included a relatively more stable situation, until the last couple of years. What is being the cause for destabilization and how is it connected to the energy transition?

Among the minerals that DR Congo has significant wealth is cobalt. The gray metal, typically found in copper deposits, had very little value so far. However, with the energy transition being accelerated and the electric cars becoming prevalent, the need for cobalt for their batteries’ manufacturing has seen a surge, which makes the region a strategic one for the global powers that want to assume control of the energy transition.  In addition, projects for conventional energy resources are portraying a shift to the African continent as well, as Total is investing $5.1bln on oil projects in Uganda, as well as a total of $20bln on a liquified natural gas project in Mozambique converting the Central-East Africa region in the an energy hub of global interest. The latter has even greater interest considering the energy poverty of the region, but also the energy crisis regions such as Europe are facing.

Geopolitical Losers and Winners

Destabilization in the DR Congo could mean ceasing of the mining activities, which could have one major geopolitical loser: China. Entities of Beijing’s interest currently control 15 out of 17 copper mines(which contain cobalt as well) and in several of them investments are made to increase production, such as the $2.51bln plan of China Molybdenum Company(CMOC). Combined with the fact that attacks on the Great Lakes are being accompanied by kidnapping of Chinese citizens, it is in Beijing’s best interest that the rebel groups are dealt with.

A major geopolitical winner could be Russia. The Russian PMC Wagner group is already training and deploying soldiers in Central African Republic(CAR), while the Radio France International(RFI) had reported that there is already a military agreement between Kinshasha and Moscow that can be “activated” at any given point. In addition, the military needs of Uganda(and other regional players) in weaponry can be  satisfied through the Russian military industry . A potential crisis therefore is an excellent policy window of opportunity for the Kremlin to control the supply chain in the energy transition era as well, but also the new oil & gas reserves that will be used by Europe.

The usual suspect at the other side of Moscow’s chessboard is Ankara and might prove to be a major stakeholder in this situation, as it has major interest in maintaining a key energy supplier status. Turkey has been pursuing deepening ties with Africa through projects, among which the military base in Somalia is prevalent. The outreach has gone up to Rwanda(indoor arena) , showing that President Erdogan is serious in becoming part of the Great Lakes game. Furthermore, President Erdogan has been a vocal supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood in the past and has supported the ISIS, which has caused (and is still causing) destabilization in regions, so such destabilizing efforts in the Great Lakes might be Ankara’s “military way” in this Great Game.

How can this not end up in mayhem?

The situation that ADF brings up is quite new to the Great Lakes region, but there is precedent and there are lessons that can be learnt from elsewhere in Africa. West Africa, which also has huge renewable energy potential and is very relevant for the energy transition, has faced among the world’s worst consequences when it comes to terrorism and the ideation of the G5 Sahel has been an excellent idea in working towards combating the problem. Its execution, however, was rather poor, leaving a lot of room for improvement, especially when it comes to maintaining regional political stability. Reflecting on this, the Great Lakes region could show a unified response and the EU or NATO can work as a broker to make this happen. Showing a strong military response to non-state actors in the region can have a positive impact in combating terrorism even in the neighbourhood, such as in Mozambique(Cabo Delgado) or Somalia, bringing, eventually, stability in a region of utmost importance for the energy transition and all the future crises that loom in the corner.  

Dimitris Symeonidis
Dimitris Symeonidis
Dimitris Symeonidis is an energy policy & geopolitical risk analyst based in The Hague.His field of specialization is geopolitical risks in the energy transition and his areas of focus include Central Asia, South Caucasus and Sub-Saharan Africa.