Make Sense of Belarus Interests through Full Support  to Russia for Invasion in Ukraine

Before the Ukraine-Russia conflict occurred, on November 2021 Belarus had internal problems in which involves the European Union, America and NATO member countries. The problems started since president of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko has served as president for 6 times in a row with a period of 26 years without changing (ICRCENTER, 2020). The European Union and the United States have stopped recognizing Aleksandr Lukashenko as the new president of Belarus. But the refusal was not with Russia even Vladmir Putin agreed to Aleksandr Lukashenko’s constitutional changes. Therefore, Belarus feels that the European Union has threatened its security and interfered with the existence of Belarusian sovereignty.

Thus Belarus responded to the United States and the European Union through emigrants distribution. Belarus political strategy of using emigrants has made the European Union overwhelmed in dealing with the cycle of emigrants at the borders of its member states. This strategy caused the European Union to experience a fairly intensive border crisis and geopolitical threat. Poland and Baltic countries since the re-election of Aleksandr Lukashenko as president have received many refugees from Belarus. In addition, Belarus threatens to cut off gas pipelines to European Union countries that pass through their country.

Belarus political strategy is also through hybrid warfare operations supported by Russia through the emigrant crisis. Belarus and Russia in achieving targets and weakening the enemies of the two countries launched false-flagged military operations to spy on EU countries. Belarus retaliated against European Union political action by providing transportation for Middle Eastern and African emigrants to enter European countries. On July 2021, Belarus relaxed visas and increased state-owned airline flights from the Middle East to allow thousands of potential migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries to enter Europe via Belarus. Belarusian security forces push emigrants from the Middle East, Africa and others to the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Lithuania and all EU countries. In addition, Belarus provides tools to be able to break through the barrier wire from European Union countries (Bachmann, 2021). The situation is dire with thousands of emigrants caught in the border areas of European Union.

On November 17, 2021, eleven emigrants died in the tents due to extreme weather. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has created a crisis by bringing Middle Eastern emigrants to the Polish-Belarus border with the promise of easy entry into the European Union (Sicca, 2021). The flights of the emigrants were carried out by Belarus by being smuggled through Iraq as a safe flight path to carry the emigrants. A number of these emigrants are in almost all points of entry to the European Union’s borders. Poland, the European Union and NATO have criticized the fact that Belarus is deliberately fueling the crisis by allowing Middle Eastern emigrants to enter Belarus and providing transportation to enter the European Union through its border with Poland (Roth, 2021). The efforts made by Belarus are fully supported by Russia.

Russia and Ukraine Conflict

The increasing Russian attack on Ukraine on Thursday 24 February 2022 is a consequence of Russia concern about the siege of NATO countries. Russia security is increasingly threatened so that Russia will not back down until Ukraine and NATO declare that Ukraine will not join as a member of NATO. According to an analysis based on traditional security theory, the attack is a form of Russia’s show to the world, especially against the United States and other NATO member countries, that Russia will not be controlled if its interests are not listened to by the international community, especially the western bloc countries. On February 26, 2022, Russian president Vladmir Putin delivered in a emphatic “Redrawing Borders, Rewriting History“. The statement underscores the seriousness of the Russian government to invade Ukraine if western countries do not listen to its interests. It is interesting to see further about the political behavior of the Russian military in attacking Ukraine.

According to Mearsheimer (2001) in his book entitled The Tragedy of Great Power Politics mention that countries face an uncertain world so that they can use their power to harm or retaliate against other countries’ attacks. According to Mersheimer, the international system of anarchy makes increasing power rational. The best strategy to ensure the survival of the state is to maximize relative power (Mearsheimer, 2001). Mersheimer confirmed that the efforts made by Russia to counter NATO’s desire to make Ukraine a member state were very appropriate by maximizing strength even with attackers. Russia has long been neglected by western countries, so to maintain its existence and internal security, Russia has carried out an invasion with military attacks as an effort to deal with the reality of international politics that tends to be western.

Another reason the Russian invasion occurred when NATO wanted to make Ukraine a member was that there were fewer and fewer ex-Soviet Union countries that were not members of NATO. In addition, geographically, Ukraine is directly adjacent to Russia, so the security dilemma must have caused Russia to take a stand to maintain its security.

Security Interests of Belarus to support Russia Invasion in Ukraine

Belarus supports Russia which is experiencing a security dilemma due to threats from its political opponents. We know that NATO has been Russia’s opponent since it was the Soviet Union. Thus, it is very rational for Belarus to support Russia because previously Russia supported Belarus in the face of criticism from NATO countries including the United States and the European Union. On February 28, 2022 Belarus held a referendum on a new constitution. One of the constitutional amendments is to eliminate the non-nuclear status in Belarus. This is considered to be aimed at making it easier for the country to receive nuclear weapons from Russia (Muhaimin, 2022). Belarusian President Lukashenko stated that he asked Russia to return nuclear weapons in Belarus if the west (NATO) transfers nuclear weapons to Poland or Lithuania. The President of Belarus asked President Vladmir Putin to return nuclear weapons and Belarus would help without any conditions (AlJazeera, 2022). Belarus through the Belarusian president’s statement of full support is seen from the great commitment to amending the domestic law amendments to make way for strong military cooperation.

According to Hans.J. Morgenthau in his book “Politics Among Nations The Struggle For Power And Peace” (1978) that realism views the national interest as the context of struggle for power. To achieve the national interest of a country, realism at least offers a way related to the country’s strategy to achieve power, namely the quality of diplomacy. Efforts to amend the constitution by Belarus are aimed at defending the security interests and interests of President Lukashenko to maintain his position as president for the 6th time. The new amendments to Belarus are a form of qaulity of diplomacy towards Russia. Morgenthau claim that: first, diplomacy determines the goals of the state by looking at the forces that occur in the international system and can potentially achieve the goals or national interests of the state. Second, diplomacy assess the goals and strengths of other countries/nations so that they can develop strategies that have the potential to pursue national goals or interests. Third, diplomacy determines the extent to which national goals or interests are compatible. The diplomacy component above will reflect the national interest of a country towards other countries how to behave in dealing with complicated international situations.

Belarus has a vested interest in Russia because it is afraid of NATO countries and the European Union. The only country that supports Belarus in eastern Europe is Russia. Belarus has a security dependence on Russia so it is important for Belarus to fully support Russia in order to maintain its existence. In terms of security and weapons systems Belarus is still supported by Russia. If the prediction of a third world war occurs, Belarus will decide to ask for nuclear weapons from Russia and be willing to become a guard state because Belarus is basically a security fragile state without Russia. Thus the Russian attack on Ukraine was fully supported by Belarus. At the meeting of the United Nations on March 2, 2022 regarding the termination of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, Belarus was one of the countries that refused to withdraw Russian troops. It can be concluded that Belarus is afraid of the threat of the European Union countries, the United States and NATO countries and cannot survive without the support by Russia. Belarus is facing threats from Poland and Lithuania because previously it has threatened the security of both countries with threats through the distribution of emigrants.

Ica Cahayani
Ica Cahayani
Ica Cahayani is a graduate student in International Relation Studies at Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia. Her research interests include practices and policies in international cooperation and development covering the realms of global political economy, security, gender, global value chains and diplomacy. Other research interests Commentries focus on the Indopacific region, ASEAN and Europe. Her actively writes in various domestic and foreign media regarding the latest international relations issues, such as the issue of the ukraine conflict, the phenomenon of world food oil scarcity, the presidency of the G20 Indonesia and its challenges and cultural diplomacy.