From the perspective of India, Russia’s war on Ukraine is a battle between our oldest partner Russia and our new friend the United States. Over the past two decades our relations with the U.S. have grown in various sectors, in defence, technology, science, medicine and space research. The partnership has lately been extended in the Indo- Pacific, with both members of the Quad group. Meanwhile, our earlier partnership with Russia in its earlier Soviet era continued in a bilateral relationship across many areas. For example, India imports defence hardware from Russia to the value of 70%. However, from the end of WW2 until today, the US and Russia have not had a cordial relationship. In the post-Cold-War period the US has fought to sustain her position as the only superpower in the world. Russia has slowly sought to rebuild.
To sustain her position, the US has entered into alliances with various nations in Europe, Asia and Africa. The US is the most adept nation in the world at this business of forming alliances. Russian leaders have been consistently angered at these growing alliances since the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, particularly at its eastern expansion. The US had promised not to expand eastwards. In 1989, the former US Secretary of State James Baker promised the USSR President Mikhail Gopachev that NATO would not expand towards the east. Yet, the opposite occurred after 1991. Alongside Russia’s defensive position, there has also been a strong and adamant determination in Russia’s leadership that Russia must be rebuilt again into a superpower. This determination is typical of the Russian spirit, as history has shown. Nayar and Paul have written that in the long history of Russia, it has declined on several occasions, only to rebuild strongly afterwards.
Now, although the US and Soviet Union never fought directly against each other throughout the Cold War period from 1945-1991, they fought subtly using proxies. In the post-1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, the US and Russia have continued to battle quietly, holding divergent opinions on many issues, from Iraq to Iran, to North Korea and Afghanistan. The present Ukrainian crisis is the culmination of decades of divergent opinions and policies. For the past thirty years, America has continuously encouraged former Soviet Union states to join NATO. Likewise, the European Union has received such states and has even been open to Ukraine’s membership, even though it lacks the basic requirements. The majority of Ukrainian citizens want membership in the European Union. In this policy, however, the US and European powers, have gravely misjudged and underestimated Russia.
The important European leaders of Germany, France and the UK, in particular, should have realised that the grave matter of Ukraine’s situation was going to ignite one day. This is because, for the last twenty years, President Vladmir Putin has been openly sharing his displeasure with the expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe. He has, on several occasions, asked western countries to halt this expansion. The west, including the US, never listened to his concerns.
The majority of the Ukrainian people and leaders did not listen either. In any democracy, the will of the majority triumphs. The majority of Ukrainian leaders began to listen to and follow the wishes of the people, promising in their election speeches to seek EU membership. For this reason, Ukraine’s leaders also began to act independently of Russia’s wishes. Russia, though, has not been idle in letting Ukraine go. In 2010, Viktor Yanukovych understood Putin’s warning about the EU and turned towards Russia. This incident caused great public outrage and he was quickly forced to escape into Russia. Putin’s influence, though, was a warning sign for Ukraine and the west. The Russian annexation of Crimea and the support of separatist groups in 2014 provided another, more severe warning. Undemocratic countries such as Russia and China become terribly fearful whenever allied democratic nations begin to expand towards their borders. Russia clearly agitated here against the west. The US, though, did not lend her ears to Russia. The European leaders also failed; they should have shared their concerns with the US and determined upon a different policy for Ukraine.
If the west had stuck to its promise about eastern expansion, Ukraine would have remained peacefully as a neutral, buffer state and would have acted as a bridge between Russia and the west. Instead of encouraging NATO membership, the west could have peacefully strengthened Ukraine’s prosperity in economic development. Instead of considering EU membership for Ukraine, the west could have simply allowed Ukrainian people to work in the EU on separate rules and contracts. The west has hugely contributed towards the current Ukrainian crisis.
Today, the Ukrainian people have essentially been left alone, with little western support. They are pleading to the international community, especially to the declining superpower, the US. However, the west is content with supplying military technology and economic sanctions. The latter sanctions are largely insufficient. They have not disturbed the leader of North Korea in previous years. They do not seriously disturb Putin. No effective international order is at present prevailing to thwart the Russian atrocities against the Ukrainians.
Now, what is the role of India in this vacuum of decisive international action? Well, India received an excellent opportunity to act when Russia began her invasion this month. Russia declared that the Donbas region in the south-east of Ukraine – consisting of the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk – to be independent states. Now, at this point, the helpless Ukrainian government turned to India among others for help, asking Prime Minister Modi to abandon protocol and to ask the Russian president to stop the war. What did Modi achieve in his telephone conversation with Putin? Nothing. The television footage soon revealed Russian tanks marching upon Ukraine’s capital city, Kiev. His intervention done nothing to deliver the people of Ukraine, foreigners and students from a terrible plight. Ukraine is deeply dissatisfied with India’s approach, whilst Russia lauds India’s stand.
Pope Francis, on the contrary, abandoned all protocol. He walked to the Russian embassy in Vatican City and protested against the war. The Vatican has little influence over Russia and the protestation achieved nothing. Russia, incidentally, is suspicious of Rome; leaders believe that the Holy See conspired in the disintegration of the USSR. However, the point is that India, as a major-power aspirant, should have been more forceful in her approach. She should have utilised the crisis as an opportunity to prove that she can contribute powerfully to peace in the world. India’s main concern in the crisis has been to airlift stranded students from Ukraine’s universities. However, India should not forget her global responsibility. She must set aside the goal of some cheap political mileage and show her commitment to higher goals. This shall help her considerably in her aspirations to become a major-power.
What India can do now? The Modi Government shall do nothing to stop the war. India should, however, take bold steps to unite the various stakeholders in the crisis, the US, EU, Ukraine and Russia. Even if it achieves nothing, the boldness of India would raise its international profile. India should steer clear of exacerbating the tensions. There is no possibility of direct, external military intervention in Ukraine. The west will not antagonise Russia, with the nuclear risk.
India should work on the core issue of the crisis: potential Ukrainian membership of NATO and EU. It should encourage NATO and EU members to cease encouraging Ukrainian membership. India can send her external affairs minister to these nations, to put pressure on them. As this policy is what Putin wants, he will listen to India. It may not be ideal for the Ukrainian people or western countries, but it will bring both sides closer to solid negotiation and peace.
India has been bold before. At the beginning of the Cold War, Pandit Nehru was bold enough to talk about the root cause of any major issues between capitalist and socialist nations. India should cut to the truth of the matter. If India acts in this way, the world will support it. If India avoids the root issue and solution, however, it will only contribute to the continuation of Ukraine’s suffering.
