Today world is facing another war like situation between Russia and Ukraine. According to the news Russia has deployed around one lac and thirty thousand troops on the border with Ukraine. While the United States had warned Europe of a possible Russian invasion on the 16th of February 2022 and despite sanctions threats from US and England on Thursday, February 24, 2022 Russia’s leader Putin has announced special military operation in eastern Ukraine. In response, Ukraine has shot down five Russian planes. Russia claims this military deployment is its right to secure its border while the government of Ukraine finds it a possible invasion. It can be seen that Russia was tempted for that it had to attack. European Union and US knew that Russia doesn’t want NATO forces on its border, still pushed for it. Now the question arises Why doesn’t it send its soldiers now if they were so much insistive? what is this conflict? What is the reason for this outstanding crisis? What are the Russian objectives? What is the response of Europe and especially the US, NATO, and obviously China?
Starting with the brief history of conflict it goes back to the cold war era when Ukraine was part of Russia and with the Soviet Disintegration, it became an independent state, while Putin in power from last more than 20 years, now Russia wants it back. Back in 2014, a pro-Russian President of Ukraine was toppled by the Anti-Russian masses with the backing of Europe and the US. However, during this instability, Russia annexed its long-given gift Crimea to Ukraine and started a separate movement in the East of Ukraine. There was also an agreement that took place but was never operationalized. That is why today’s world is facing this crisis.
Russia is strong under Putin and wants to take Ukraine back in its fold. There are several reasons. Primarily, Russia claims that The people of Russia, Ukraine go back to the same origin and since most of the time Ukraine has been part of Russia so it’s time to join Russia again.
Secondly, Ukraine has shown its desire to join NATO and the feeling is mutual but not soon. However, there is a desire and Russia wants to stop the expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe where a few former Russian states have already been part of the NATO alliance. Therefore, if Ukraine joins NATO, it will be sharing a border with a NATO-influenced state which is not acceptable by Kremlin. Mainly because in the past Russia has been invaded by European powers so it wants to keep a buffer zone between Europe and its borders.
Thirdly, there are economic objectives of Russia in Ukraine in the form of its vast agriculturally rich land. Last but not the least, today Russia is going through an economic backlash. Pandemic has further worsened the situation. There have been the largest protests by opposition groups against Putin. So this invasion of Ukraine and possible foreign achievement can divert the Russian people from domestic issues to foreign issues and it can also help Putin to further strengthen its place.
However, we cannot ignore the response of the US and its European allies. Russia has given a list of its demands to be fulfilled which are rejected by the NATO, US and its allies. US president has talked to the Russian President and told him not to invade Ukraine or Russia will face something which it has never seen like. On the other hand, the US president has also stated that the US will not be deploying its forces in Ukraine or NATO. However, they have coupled Ukraine with US arms and weaponry. It means there will be sanctions against Russia. Which can obviously hurt badly the already wounded Russian economy. But the question arises, are these sanctions enough to stop Russia? Because Europe is dependent on Russian gas and hurting Russia with sanctions means hurting the other Europe too. Back in 2014 when US and allies asked Germany to stop the import of Russian gas, in return Germany doubled the import. Even today when most of the NATO members are supplying arms and weaponry to Ukraine including even the smaller states, Germany has only given a hospital and 5000 helmets on which the foreign minister of Ukraine said that he is expecting pillows next. On the other hand, when Germany is asked to cut gas imports, it has declared that the gas pipeline is a private project which has nothing to do with Ukraine. Also, in the video, the German Navy commander was seen saying that Ukraine must give respect to Russia which she demands and deserve. Hence Germany is trying to keep a soft response to this conflict. However, France, the UK, and other NATO members are preparing for a joint response with USA and France has asked for targeted sanctions when Europe is already dealing with the energy crisis and Russia has a complete monopoly over the most valuable gas reserves. Secondly, sanctions are already in place after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, but Russia is no Iran, and going for more sanctions means hurting the economy of other Europe too.
However, there is also a third actor in the play, China, back in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea, China didn’t recognize Crimea as a part of Russia but also blamed Europe for leading the crisis to this situation. In the same way, today China is also blaming the US for the crisis. China claims that the US wants to stirrup a crisis that would ultimately be widened and beneficial to its arms industry.
So what are the options here? Every state has the right to protect itself and we look into the history, Europe has always invaded Russia, and NATO at its border will be more than this present crisis. When Putin claims Ukraine on the basis of history he is right because 1 out of 3 Ukrainian speaks the Russian language. Whereas, if we look at the history the eastern part of Ukraine was designed the way to made it the part of Russia because it is rich with land, coal, and iron. Historically the in 1800s ethnic Russians were shipped to this part of the world, later the Ukrainian language was banned and schools would be taught in Russian-language. In the 1930s, the Soviet leader Joseph Stalin steered a famine in Ukraine, millions of east Ukrainians were killed. The area was then repopulated with Russians who today want to be part of Russia again. However, claiming Ukraine by Russia on the basis of colonial history is also not judicial, it is just like if Britain claims subcontinent. Past imperialism cannot justify today’s expansionism. Today 70% of Ukrainian reject the idea of One Russia and Ukraine, whereas 72% consider Russia a hostile state. Furthermore, 33.3% of Ukrainian are ready to take up arms against the fight with Russia, 21.7% are ready to stage resistance against Russia, 67% of Ukrainian want to join E.U, 59% want to join NATO. Today the president of Ukraine got a landslide victory in 2019 and he is strongly against the Russian occupation. Ukraine wants to stay an autonomous state. So the world leaders must forge out ways to stop this crisis and the will of the Ukrainian people must be respected.
