The contemporary era can be understood as a period in which the rivalries between the great powers ceased to exist and cooperation and stability are the main driving norms. The Ukrainian Crisis which started in 2014 with Crimean annexation to the latest amassing of Russian troops on the Ukraine border is proving an obstacle in the ongoing peaceful relations and now the question arises whether this will result in the new ‘Cold War’ in the Arctic. The heart of the problem is the geographical proximity of the America and Russia, connected through Arctic. Moreover, the tensions are also heightened because of the existing weapon system, as Arctic is the best staging location for strikes against each other. That’s why Arctic has become a major area of debate and discussion among the international relationists due to its strategic importance. What has complicated the already deteriorated condition is the Chinese proclamation of the Near-Arctic State. USA is seeing it as a challenge to her authority of global hegemon. This has transformed the struggle in the Arctic from bipolar to tripolar. The climate change has also acted as a catalyst in the worsening relation between the two super giants. The thawing of ice is actually a blessing in disguise as it is opening new avenues of resource extraction in the arctic. The nuclear deterrent of Russia is placed in the Arctic only. Major comprising parts of the deterrence are the long-range bombers and submarine forces. Russians are also looking to deploy additional forces in order to save the original ones. This implicated USA to develop long -range bombers which can fly easily over the Arctic against the Soviet targets. Moreover, the surveillance systems have also been developed by the two powers in order to give warnings of the attacks by the other side. This was the scenario before the cold war and a lot got changed post-cold war situation. Now, the Centre stage has been occupied by the Climate change. The Arctic has attracted the special attention of the World’s Strategists. The transformation in the region due to the Climatic conditions has opened up new maritime routes. Moreover, it is also facilitating the use of underwater resources, and this has resulted the confrontation in the Arctic.
The objective of my paper is to find out that how the changing climatic conditions and the melting of ice in the Arctic will change the strategic scenario of the world. The research will then delineate that how the super and great powers will react to the newly found resources. Is the battle for the Arctic will lead to a new cold war between Russia and USA? The approach used is the epistemological methodology keeping in view the possibilities and limitations of the research. It focusses on the true facts and ideas, maintaining a wide distance with the utopianism and idealism.
Energy and Resources: The exact data is not available about the Arctic’s wealth. It is estimated that USA contains around 13% of the undiscovered oil reserves and a large number of gas fields are also located under icy waters. Apart from hydrocarbons, it contains an ample number of reserves of Nickel ores, tin, tungsten, gold, rare earth metals. According to the official reports, Arctic contains 30 % of the world’s natural gas reserves and deposits of rare earth metals worth more than a trillion US dollars.
Logistics: In the modern day, logistics and communication are more important than the raw resources. The two major trans-oceanic routes in the Arctic are the Northern Sea-Route as well as the North-West Passage. This is the connecting link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. According to a forecast, the speed with which ice is melting, by the end of century there would not be any ice in the Arctic Ocean at all, and this will make NSR free of navigation all the year round. According to Svalbard Agreement, Norway claimed its sovereignty over the Arctic, but the melting of ice has changed the circumstances by putting, ‘The registration of the Arctic’s residence ‘on the agenda of many leading countries of the world. The Arctic zone consists of the 6 States- Russia, USA, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Iceland. Two more states-Sweden and Finland have territories beyond the Arctic Circle, but they do not possess the access to the coastline of Arctic.
Moreover, those states which are located quiet far away from Arctic are also showing interest in the Arctic in the recent times like India, China, South-Korea and Japan etc. The South Korea and China maintains their leadership in the scientific programs that are intended to study the Arctic and also build a gas carrier related to the Russian Arctic projects. Asian Shipping Companies are also actively involved in the usage of Northern Sea-Route. Moreover, Saudi Aramco closed a deal to join the Russian Arctic LNG projects in the year 2019. China has also increased its investment activities in the region and focusing on the effective implementation of the Arctic Silk Road. All this shows that many countries of the world are attracted by the prospects provided by the Arctic like Oil and gas reserves, freshwater reserves and the connecting transcontinental link that will reduce the travelling times.
Conclusion: The international law allows the countries to use underwater resources at a distance of 200 miles from their coasts. But the USA put forward a convention according to which if a country is able to prove that the ocean shelf is an extension of its continental territory, then it belongs to her. This has made the Arctic issue even more relevant. Russia proclaims that the Lomonosov underwater ridge is a continuation of the Siberian platform. This implies that 1.2 million square kilometers of shelf with huge reserves of hydrocarbon comes under the Russian domain. Other arctic states do not support such border redistricting statements. The far Arctic States like China, India and UK are also concerned with the Russian side.
Canada considers the Lomonosov ridge to be an extension of its territory and also claims to prove the same in the UN. The same ridge is also claimed by Norway which ahs already achieved the transfer of the part of the shelfs under its jurisdictions. The new entrant, China supports the collective use of the region’s resources. China is an observer in the Arctic Council and in 2013, adopted a state program for the development of the region.
