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Global Growth to Slow through 2023, Adding to Risk of ‘Hard Landing’ in Developing Economies

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Following a strong rebound in 2021, the global economy is entering a pronounced slowdown amid fresh threats from COVID-19 variants and a rise in inflation, debt, and income inequality that could endanger the recovery in emerging and developing economies, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report. Global growth is expected to decelerate markedly from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 4.1 percent in 2022 and 3.2 percent in 2023 as pent-up demand dissipates and as fiscal and monetary support is unwound across the world.

The rapid spread of the Omicron variant indicates that the pandemic will likely continue to disrupt economic activity in the near term. In addition, a notable deceleration in major economies—including the United States and China—will weigh on external demand in emerging and developing economies. At a time when governments in many developing economies lack the policy space to support activity if needed, new COVID-19 outbreaks, persistent supply-chain bottlenecks and inflationary pressures, and elevated financial vulnerabilities in large swaths of the world could increase the risk of a hard landing.

“The world economy is simultaneously facing COVID-19, inflation, and policy uncertainty, with government spending and monetary policies in uncharted territory. Rising inequality and security challenges are particularly harmful for developing countries,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Putting more countries on a favorable growth path requires concerted international action and a comprehensive set of national policy responses.”

The slowdown will coincide with a widening divergence in growth rates between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies. Growth in advanced economies is expected to decline from 5 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022 and 2.3 percent in 2023—a pace that, while moderating, will be sufficient to restore output and investment to their pre-pandemic trend in these economies. In emerging and developing economies, however, growth is expected to drop from 6.3 percent in 2021 to 4.6 percent in 2022 and 4.4 percent in 2023. By 2023, all advanced economies will have achieved a full output recovery; yet output in emerging and developing economies will remain 4 percent below its pre-pandemic trend. For many vulnerable economies, the setback is even larger: output of fragile and conflict-affected economies will be 7.5 percent below its pre-pandemic trend, and output of small island states will be 8.5 percent below.

Meanwhile, rising inflation—which hits low-income workers particularly hard—is constraining monetary policy. Globally and in advanced economies, inflation is running at the highest rates since 2008. In emerging market and developing economies, it has reached its highest rate since 2011. Many emerging and developing economies are withdrawing policy support to contain inflationary pressures—well before the recovery is complete.

The latest Global Economic Prospects report features analytical sections that provide fresh insights into three emerging obstacles to a durable recovery in developing economies. The first, on debt, compares the latest international initiative to tackle unsustainable debt in developing economies—the G20 Common Framework—with previous coordinated initiatives to facilitate debt relief. Noting that COVID-19 pushed total global debt to the highest level in half a century even as the creditors’ landscape became increasingly complex, it finds that future coordinated debt relief initiatives will face higher hurdles to success. Applying lessons from the past restructurings to the G20 Common Framework can increase its effectiveness and avoid the shortcomings faced by earlier initiatives.

“The choices policymakers make in the next few years will decide the course of the next decade,” said Mari Pangestu, the World Bank’s Managing Director for Development Policy and Partnerships. “The immediate priority should be to ensure that vaccines are deployed more widely and equitably so the pandemic can be brought under control. But tackling reversals in development progress such as rising inequality will require sustained support. In a time of high debt, global cooperation will be essential to help expand the financial resources of developing economies so they can achieve green, resilient, and inclusive development.”

The second analytical section examines the implications of boom-and-bust cycles of commodity prices for emerging market and developing economies, most of which are heavily dependent on commodity exports. It finds that these cycles were particularly intense in the past two years, when commodity prices collapsed with the arrival of COVID-19 and then surged, in some cases to all time-highs last year. Global macroeconomic developments and commodity supply factors will likely cause boom-bust cycles to continue in commodity markets. For many commodities, these cycles may be amplified by the forces of climate change and the energy transition away from fossil fuels. The analysis also shows that commodity-price booms since the 1970s have tended to be larger than busts, creating significant opportunities for stronger and more sustainable growth in commodity-exporting countries—if they employ disciplined policies during booms to take advantage of windfalls.

The third analytical section explores COVID-19’s impact on global inequality. It finds that the pandemic has raised global income inequality, partly reversing the decline that was achieved over the previous two decades. It has also increased inequality in many other spheres of human activity—in the availability of vaccines; in economic growth; in access to education and health care; and in the scale of job and income losses, which have been higher for women and low-skilled and informal workers. This trend has the potential to leave lasting scars: for example, losses to human capital caused by disruptions in education can spill over across generations.

Ayhan Kose, Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group, said: “In light of the projected slowdown in output and investment growth, limited policy space, and substantial risks clouding the outlook, emerging and developing economies will need to carefully calibrate fiscal and monetary policies. They also need to undertake reforms to erase the scars of the pandemic. These reforms should be designed to improve investment and human capital, reverse income and gender inequality, and cope with challenges of climate change.”

Regional Outlooks:

East Asia and Pacific: Growth is projected to decelerate to 5.1% in 2022 before increasing slightly to 5.2% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

Europe and Central Asia: Growth is forecast to slow to 3.0% in 2022 year and 2.9% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2022 before increasing slightly to 2.7% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

Middle East and North Africa: Growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.4% in 2022 before slowing to 3.4% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

South Asia: Growth is projected to accelerate to 7.6% in 2022 before slowing to 6.0% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth is forecast to accelerate slightly to 3.6% in 2022 and rise further to 3.8% in 2023. For more, see regional overview.

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F.B.I. Official’s Indictment Shows oligarch infiltrated the highest echelons of the government

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The search for kompromat on his opponent in a conflict with shareholders was highly regarded by Russian aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska.

That is the conclusion that can be drawn from studying the F.B.I indictment against Charles McGonigal, who, according to the indictment, headed the counterintelligence unit at the bureau’s New York field office. McGonigal, 54, is a former high-ranking F.B.I. official, who was involved in counterintelligence work and investigations against Russian oligarchs.

The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York accused him of circumventing sanctions and conspiracy to launder funds. Mr. Deripaska is mentioned in almost every paragraph of the 21-page document. The indictment, signed by prosecutor Damian Williams, says efforts to remove Deripaska from the U.S. sanctions list were made by McGonigal in 2019. The payment is $25,000 a month through a shell firm.

Mr. Deripaska, the aluminum magnate, has been on the radar of U.S. authorities for years and is still under sanctions. The Treasury Department said he had ties to organized crime.

Rebecca Davis O’Brien covers law enforcement and courts in New York wrote: For years, Mr. Deripaska, 55, has employed a small army of lobbyists, lawyers, consultants and fixers to protect his business and personal interests and smooth his access to Western countries.

For 2021, the New York federal prosecutor’s office indicted a number of these individuals for helping to circumvent sanctions.

The name of the person against whom the former F.B.I. agent, obviously not without the help of his colleagues, was supposed to collect sensitive information is not disclosed. In the document, he appears under the code name Oligarch-2. However, behind this wording, it could be guessed Vladimir Potanin, who is an opponent of Mr. Deripaska in the long-running shareholder dispute at Norilsk Nickel.

Mr. Deripaska tried to find dirty evidence on his competitor, possibly lobbying also for the inclusion of his competitor’s companies on sanctions lists in order to weaken his position in the corporation, which they both own roughly equal shares of.

It is not clear from the indictment how Mr. McGonigal got onto Mr. Deripaska’s radar.

According to the indictment against Mr. McGonigal, while he was still working for the bureau in 2018, Sergey Shestakov – a former Soviet and Russian diplomat and translator who was also charged in the case – introduced Mr. McGonigal by email to an employee of Mr. Deripaska. That person was identified in the charges as Agent-1 and described as a former Soviet and Russian Federation diplomat.

In 2017, the Associated Press published an article alleging that Mr. Deripaska paid $10 million to American lobbyist Paul Manafort in 2007-2009 to promote his interests in the United States. Almost at the same time, NBC cover a story about a $60 million loan that Deripaska’s structures allegedly gave to Manafort-affiliated companies.

Mr. Deripaska got rich, in the 1990s, when there was a struggle for control of the largest subsoil resources of the Soviet Union and gained a reputation as a ruthless man with a bad reputation.

He also built relationships with politicians and other key figures in countries in the West, especially in Britain, Europe, and the United States, including hosting parties at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

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7 ways to earn cryptocurrency without risks

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Today we will talk about earning opportunities with the help of cryptocurrencies and technologies related to them.

AirDrops

The first and very effective way to earn cryptocurrency without risks and large investments are AirDrop.

Usually, this is a marketing strategy through which the authors of this or that cryptocurrency can thank their users with real money (cryptocurrency). For authors, AirDrop is an opportunity to distribute new key tokens to existing users who will be interested in a new free coin in their portfolio. Also, this is a way to advertise and interest the crypto community in the new project.

A very famous AirDrop case that happened quite recently is the Uniswap Airdrop. There they gave each user of this decentralized exchange 400 UNI (approximately $16,000 at the peak of the token price). Pretty good, huh?

Where to find new AirDrops?

Very interesting AirDrops can be found on CoinMarketCap and the site dedicated to AirDrops — AirDrop.io.

If you are looking for an even easier way to earn crypto – visit BTC 360 ai app       

Staking

Another very effective, but costly, way of earning new cryptocurrencies is staking.

It is a process in which the user locks his cryptocurrency in his wallet to maintain the activity of the blockchain on the PoS (Proof of Stake) algorithm. In other words, this is just a type of mining, but the difference from the everyday PoW algorithm, where money is given for the computing power of the system, is that here the money practically does not depend on the computing power of the system, but depends on the number of tokens you have.

The largest currencies that use this algorithm are Solana, Etherium (2.0), Cardano, which on average bring the user 5% annually. This is not a very large amount, but if you take into account that the cryptocurrency itself does not stand still, then instead of keeping the cryptocurrency in your wallet idle, why not make this cryptocurrency “work for you” and bring in additional money?

You can see all the up-to-date information on the rewards you will receive for staking various tokens here.

Proof of Work

The third way of making money is traditional mining, or PoW (Proof of Work). This is a more complicated way to earn on cryptocurrencies than the second way because here you have to physically go (or order online) and buy the necessary things for mining.

What are these things?

It depends on what you are going to mine. In the case of Ethereum (1.0), these are video cards (which are practically nowhere to be found anyway), in the case of Bitcoin, these are ASICs. You also have to keep in mind whether mining will be profitable for you with your electricity prices, and what to do with the heat and noise these machines generate. Although this is a more complicated method than PoS, it usually brings much more money to its user.

You can calculate your earnings on this site.

Providing Liquidity

Another, slightly riskier, but more profitable than regular staking is liquidity supply.

Your goal is to supply two coins (50% of the value of one and 50% of the value of the other) and earn increased percentages compared to normal staking. But there are several “buts”, for example, you lose some coins if these coins are quite volatile.

It will take a long time to describe in more detail, but I advise you to read about it here using the example of SushiSwap.

You can supply liquidity on Binance, Uniswap, or other decentralized platforms.

Faucets

The next method is quite easy, but it’s usually not very profitable. These are faucets.

This name is not adapted to our language, but the essence of it is that it is a process where users give rewards for taking a survey or reading an article. This helps the developer to spread their cryptocurrency and the user to earn from it. The American crypto-wallet Coinbase, which gave and still gives rewards for the fact that the user read the article and answered questions from it, very popularized this type of earnings. Quite recently you could get about $80 out of it, which is pretty good.

Centralized Investments

Centralized investment is a way to earn on crypto that cannot be staked (as in the 2nd point). It works very similar to how you put dollars/hryvnias as a deposit, but instead of fiat you can put Bitcoin or, for example, Monero. You can make these investments on Binance or BTI.LIVE.

Work in Crypto

The seventh and final point is simply to become a developer in the field of cryptocurrencies. You don’t need to have a “big idea” of cryptocurrency that will revolutionize the industry, but it is enough to get a job with a company that already exists on the market. But you will need knowledge of Smart Contract programming languages (Solidity, for example). Knowledge of English will not hurt either. And if you don’t know any programming languages yet, you can try to get a job, for example, in the Binance support team, and start developing yourself there. Lots of opportunities, but we need your motivation!

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Brazil and Argentina preparing new Latin American currency to ‘reduce reliance on US dollar’

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Image source: ndtv.com

The governments of Brazil and Argentina are making plans to create a new currency for Latin America, called the Sur (“south” in English), according to a report in the Financial Times.

Other countries in the region will be invited to use the currency.

Their goal is to “boost regional trade and reduce reliance on the US dollar”, the newspaper noted, citing government officials.

Argentina’s Economic Minister Sergio Massa told the Financial Times that the South American nations will soon “start studying the parameters needed for a common currency, which includes everything from fiscal issues to the size of the economy and the role of central banks”.

Brazil has the largest economy in Latin America, and Argentina has the third biggest (after Mexico).

Argentina-based Spanish economist Alfredo Serrano Manc, who directs a think tank dedicated to regional integration, the Latin American Strategic Center of Geopolitics (CELAG), told the Financial Times that “the path is to find mechanisms which substitute the dependence on the dollar”.

He added that now is the moment, given that “there are many governments that are ideologically similar”, with left-wing leaders across Latin America.

During his electoral campaign, Lula had floated the possibility of creating a regional currency for trade.

At a rally in May 2022, the Workers’ Party leader had said, “We are going to create a currency in Latin America, because we can’t keep depending on the dollar”.

Lula revealed that it would be called the Sur. He added that it would not be based on the euro model, and that countries could maintain their sovereign domestic currency. Instead, the plan would be to use the Sur for regional trade, Lula said.

After Lula won the October 2022 election, Ecuador’s left-wing politician and economist Andrés Arauz published a blueprint for a “new regional financial architecture” for Latin America.

Arauz said the plan would be to revive regional institutions like the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) and the Banco del Sur (Bank of the South), and to create a Banco Central del Sur (Central Bank of the South) to oversee the new currency.

The goal is “to harmonize the payment systems of” the countries that make up UNASUR in order “to carry out inter-bank transfers to any bank inside of the region in real time and from a cellphone”, he wrote.

Today, Argentina is trapped in $44 billion of debt with the US-dominated International Monetary Fund (IMF). This dollar-denominated foreign debt has led to a constant drain of foreign currency out of Argentina, fueling high levels of inflation.

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández visited China and Russia in February 2022, seeking alternatives to the US-dominated financial system, and joining Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Argentina has also applied to join the extended BRICS+ bloc, with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Buenos Aires attended the group’s 2022 summits at Beijing’s invitation.

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