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Economy

Out of the bunker: A new post pandemic world

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The media has emphasized the volatility of the global economy leading to sovereign defaults, surging financial uncertainty, economic activity contraction, investment bust and a financial crisis. Finance professionals rely on quarterly economic assessments oblivious to the fact that they do not provide insights into the future of economies. Contrary to the expert’s assessments the global economy will not lead to a systemic meltdown.

Recessions caused by economic crisis take longer to recover but the present recession is a non-economic crisis which will last for a brief period. Unlike natural disasters it has not resulted in massive destruction of infrastructure. In the past two decades, disasters caused direct economic losses worth $3 trillion globally.

The pandemic has disrupted and not destroyed the global economy. It hindered production and investments. Several sectors such as utilities and finance were unaffected while Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As) and foreign investments (FI) were taking place.

Countries and international organizations disbursed trillion dollar rescue packages. Advanced economies spent about 6% of their GDP on relief programs. US and India implemented measures to increase domestic demand and growth.  Pent-up demand for retail goods, travel and cars will spur consumption.

Historically, economies are not impacted by pandemics. Smallpox did not derail the Industrial Revolution. Smallpox declined sharply after vaccination was widely adopted. The 1918 Spanish Flu challenges were more daunting than today’s crisis.

Pandemics and the global economy

The Spanish Flu Pandemic

In 1918 the world witnessed geopolitical events such as the end of WWI, the Russian revolution and the US Senate’s rejection of the Versailles Treaty and President Woodrow Wilson’s plan to join the League of Nations. Spanish flu devoured more lives than WWI and WWII combined. F. R. Velde concludes that Spanish flu had a negligible effect on the US economy as it grew by 42% from 1921 to 1929. Economic activity increased by 1923 driven by consumerism, household appliances sales, growth of radios and cinemas, Ford model T car, Federal Highway Act of 1921 and country wide electrification projects.

The technological and macroeconomic conditions across the two time periods have significantly improved since 1918. The Spanish flu’s mortality effect dwarfed Covid 19. In 1918 a majority of the global population was economically poor, suffered from poor health and lived in low hygienic conditions. By comparison 2022 will be more settled and calmer despite huge disruptions. 

WW II

Economically, infrastructurally and socially WWII was more devastating as compared to Covid 19. Yet the post war US economic growth proved economists Paul Samuelson and Gunnar Myrdal both future Nobel Prize winners wrong. Samuelson mentioned an economic downturn while Myrdal wrote about societal turmoil. 

The US spent 42% of GDP due to an increase in the war budget by 1944. War rationing provided a boost to economic revival. Rationing led to an increase in US household savings of 40% of GDP. The expansion of the highway system led to the development of new suburban areas. Cars contributed to the flourishing of the entertainment and hospitality sectors as people had easy access to resorts and restaurants.

The post WWII world ushered in an era of international organizations. Container ships expanded global trade. The Golden Age of Capitalism witnessed the birth and flourishing of development economics. The Marshall Plan invested $22 billion or roughly $182 billion in 21st century dollars in European economic assistance. The US invested $2.2 billion in Japan’s reconstruction programs from 1946 and 1952. Contemporary Japan is a democracy, the world’s third largest economy and America’s significant security partner in the Indo Pacific region.

The US established its position as the world’s economic superpower by manufacturing airplanes, ships and refrigerators. Its economy grew by 37% and the GNP skyrocketed to $300 billion during the 1950s compared to $200 billion in 1940. By 1960, it had topped $500 billion.

The post war period was one of the finest eras of economic expansion in world history. US GDP increased from $228 billion in 1945 to under $1.7 trillion in 1975. By 1975, the US economy represented 35% of world industrial output.

Businesses during the pandemic

Stable capital expenditures has led to soaring cash balances. The cumulative global funds for long-term investment is approaching $3.5 trillion. The total firepower could exceed $10 trillion with the addition of private funds. The IHS Markit’s purchasing managers’ indices indicated expansion of the US services sector during the pandemic.

There are 1200 companies with a record $3.8 trillion in cash reserves. Assets under management of sustainable funds nearly doubled from roughly $900 billion in 2019 to over $1.7 trillion in 2020. TSMC announced an investment of $12 billion in a US chip factory. Amperex Technology declared an investment of $5.1 billion in Indonesia. Honeycomb Energy Technology invested $2.3 billion while Groupe PSA invested $2.2 billion in Germany. The top 5,000 non-financial listed companies increased their cash holdings by more than 25% to $8 trillion. Toyota increased cash holdings by more than $30 billion (up 68%) and Volkswagen by $22 billion. Suez Canal’s annual revenues in 2021 were $6.3 billion, the highest in the waterway’s history. The high levels of cash reserves will boost foreign investments in the next decade.

M&A

Low borrowing costs and buoyant financial markets are leading to M&A activities. Global M&As in the first four months of 2021 recorded higher value. M&A grew to $73 billion especially in the technology, financial services and consumer goods sectors while chemicals and information and communication sectors led to 24% increase. Notable deals include the purchase of Cypress by Infineon for $9.8 billion. The pandemic led to a revenue increase of 15% in the health care sector. One of the biggest deals was the acquisition of The Medicines by Novartis for $7.4 billion. Among the largest acquisition were the purchase of Carlton United Breweries by Asahi Group for $11 billion and Hitachi’s acquisition of ABB Power Systems for $9.4 billion.

Countries and the pandemic

Countries are liberalizing regulations and simplifying investment procedures. G20 announced fiscal packages exceeding $10 trillion while the WB provided $160 billion to developing economies. The US has proposed a multi-year infrastructure package and launched the American Rescue Plan of $1.9 trillion and $5 trillion in stimulus funding. Tax increases are likely to follow the present measures.

India’s $280 billion economic package is 10% of its’s GDP. India implemented the $24 billion social support plan. India has launched several reforms to attract organizations that are looking for an alternative to China. Several sectors such defense, aviation and insurance were liberalized. The easing of lockdowns in India led to a rise in economic activity. During Diwali 2020, e-commerce giants reported a 55% jump in sales in just one week to $4.1 billion, compared to $2.7 billion during the same period in 2019 according to CMIE.

The next decade

The global economy is poised to stage its most robust post-recession recovery in 80 years in 2022. Fewer barriers to investments is associated with lower macroeconomic volatility and smaller output falls during downturns. Productivity drives economic growth. US and India will experience lower crisis duration as they have higher productive capacities as measured by the Economic Complexity Index.

Fourth organizational revolution

Crises can spur the adoption of new technologies and business models. The pandemic has accelerated the fourth digital revolution. Digitization is implemented as automation and online services increase. The SARS outbreak is often attributed with the growth of online shopping in China, accelerating Alibaba’s rise. Organizations will invest in cloud computing, medical technologies and robotics.

Economic growth

The unprecedented global stimulus of 20% of GDP alongside the gradual reopening of economies will make this the shortest recession in post-war history. The recovery in global trade will be broad based with consumer goods and industrial supplies all back at or above pre-pandemic levels. Governments will implement macro policies to ensure financial stability in a prolonged environment of low interest rates and high liquidity.

Fiscal stimulus measures and consumer demand are expected to revive the US economy. US fiscal policy has strongly boosted business activity. US economic growth is expected to reach 6.8% in 2022, the fastest pace since 1984. President Joe Biden infrastructure plan, consumer demand and the implementation of 5G infrastructure will lead the economic recovery. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy will remain accommodative with quantitative easing and zero interest rates for an extended period.

India is situated in the most volatile region of the world surrounded by two hostile nuclear powers. China and Pakistan have fought wars with India. Since the last 30 years various geopolitical events and crisis situations such as the 1991 economic crisis, Pakistan aiding terrorism, the Kargil war, scams between 2004 and 2014 and the Covid 19 pandemic have taken place.

Yet India is attracting foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investors and its citizens are investing in the India story. The $3 trillion Indian equity market is on a history making spree as it touched the 60,000 mark during the pandemic. India is projected to be the fastest growing economy in 2022. India will grow by 8.5% while China is projected to grow by 5.6% in 2022 according to the IMF. India is implementing structural reforms and public sector privatization. The e-commerce market in India is projected to expand by 150%. The opportunities in the next 25 years are greater as compared to the last 25 years. India will continue to grow.

China’s economy will lead to a downward trend and diminishing productivity in response to belligerent foreign and military policies, US trade wars and global decoupling from China.

FI will recover to pre-pandemic levels of about $1.5 trillion by 2022. In 2023, investments in developed economies are expected to increase by 20%. FI in the US is projected to increase by 15%. In 2022 emerging markets are expected to accelerate to 6% supported by high commodity prices.

Consumer Spending

Consumers will be excited to get back to shopping and socializing. During Covid the personal savings rates surged above 20% of disposable income. Consumer spending will increase due to higher savings as compared to the pre covid levels. US households saved $1.6 trillion according to Oxford Economics. Retail and travel sectors will benefit as consumers start spending, restrictions are lifted and people are vaccinated.

US retail sales could rise as much as 8.2% to more than $4.33 trillion in 2022.  In India the 2021 Diwali shopping sales broke the 10-year record as sales generated ₹1.25 lakh crore. Consumer spending will lead to gross tax revenues which will expand to the highest pace as compared to pre pandemic levels.

Organizations

Organizations will focus on portfolio optimization. It is a buyers market and deals will be the most consequential activity of this decade. The world should expect a rise in M&A as volumes and shareholder returns will likely reach or exceed pre-pandemic levels driven by plentiful cheap liquidity. The hunt for good assets will continue to be competitive with an estimated $3.1tn in dry powder globally, a low interest rate environment and promising new opportunities.

Fleet expansion plans by shipping companies means trade is picking up. Cargo growth has led to a $10 Billion buying spree for containerships. At least 47 ultra-large container vessels are expected to be delivered by 2024 according to research firm Drewry. CMA CGM has ordered 22 containerships while Ever Given’s Operator has placed an order for 20 New Ultra-Large Ships. Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering and Samsung Heavy Industries have won combined orders worth $3 billion for 25 container ships,. The Port of Los Angeles closed its fiscal year with volumes of 10,879,383 TEUs, setting a new Western Hemisphere record.

Conclusion

The 20th century witnessed several crises such as WWI, Spanish Flu, WWII, cold war, collapse of the Soviet Union and dot com bubble. The first decade of the new millennium brought a financial crash and the rise of global terrorism. Each of these historical crisis periods was succeeded by an economic revival. The aviation industry was not permanently affected by 9/11. Terrorist attacks have not prevented people from travelling to the Middle East and Europe. A similar pattern of renewal will emerge from the present crisis. 

Historically crisis events have spawned new trends that are favorable for the economy. The Spanish Flu led to research in infectious diseases and 9/11 led to a secure environment. The pandemic will eventually give way to commercial activity, innovation and global cooperation.

A century ago our predecessors did not have the benefits of technological and scientific advances and international organizations. Today governments are supporting their economies through the crisis. The world will be out of the bunker as the effects of the pandemic fade away.

Mangesh has a Masters in International Affairs Degree from Columbia University, New York where he concentrated in international security policy. He is a subject matter expert on country, political and geopolitical risk analysis. Mangesh has more than 19 years of experience in conducting research, policy analysis and formulation and developing case studies and lessons learned. He provides strategic advice to C Suite management on global risks. Mangesh’s articles have been published in Small Wars Journal, The National Interest, Eurasia Review, E-International Relations, Modern Diplomacy, Indian Defense Review, Security Management, Geopolitical Monitor, Internationale Politik, The Geopolitics, CISOMAG, The Diplomatist and the Journal of Indo Pacific Affairs.

Economy

A Turbulent Journey of Cryptocurrency: From Increasing Popularity to Declining Desirability

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One of the most influential inventions in the past few decades is blockchain technology which led to the emersion of cryptocurrencies. Blockchain was first introduced by Stuart Haber and Scott Stornetta in the early 1990s, who were trying to resolve major issues related to digital information security by creating a block system that could prevent any modification, thus ensuring data integrity. However, this technology only became widely known in 2008 when Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin: the first generation of cryptocurrency as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system built on blockchain technology. Since then, blockchain has been growing rapidly, and cryptocurrencies’ emergence is considered a turning point that could radically transform the global financial regime. It became one of the hottest topics that stole much attention, not only from business entities but also from countless governments and international organizations. This article will further analyze the impacts of cryptocurrencies on the global political economy and the factors that led to their decline after 14 years of glory.

Cryptocurrencies: A Disruption Towards Global Political Economy?

Cryptocurrencies have become digital currencies that can remove delicacies in conventional financial transactions by using blockchain technology at its core. Today’s financial dealings are solely dependent on the existence of trusted third parties, and implementing completely non-reversible transactions, for example, is nearly impossible to conduct in the current mechanism since financial institutions are likely unwilling to mediate the disputes due to its high costs. Therefore, there would be no guarantee of protection against fraud for producers and consumers when making any money settlements, as the whole process is based on trust. Instead of trust, cryptocurrencies adopted cryptographic proof: employed peer-to-peer networks using proof-of-work in recording the public history of transactions to prevent double-spending; thus, it would be impractical to reverse the transactions that had been made. This way, the possibility of fraud can be minimalized or even eliminated. Further, as the peer-to-peer network also functions to remove the usage of trusted third parties, the transaction fees can be set to the lowest point, which is 0.1 percent of the total transaction amount.

Another prominent feature of cryptocurrencies is the idea of decentralization: creating a spectrum where people can take charge of their finances without central authority within the network. Blockchain technology which supports cryptocurrencies, enables the creation of a decentralized design that could grant users access to the payment system all the time without a single point of failure – no intermediary and control exist, thus transactions could always be sent and received instantly, even the users’ account could not be ‘frozen’ at all cost. After all, cryptocurrencies were built to liberate people from limited electronic transaction processes, and embedded decentralization reinstates this vision.

The first generation of cryptocurrencies was created to criticize a two-level money system consisting of central and commercial banks that combine public and private money into a hybrid money game. With this arrangement, the standard monetary system is weighted with political control and coercive power to achieve stability. However, what brought the hybrid money game into stabilization may also be the factor causing instability which was visible during the financial crisis of 2008. Bitcoin back then emerged as a political experiment to promote a whole new different of money game without coercive power and extensive institutional underpinning except from what could be provided by the computation coding. As the genesis of cryptocurrencies was the emergence of distrust towards existing money games, their popularity also increased in line with the failure of the monetary system. The Cyprus Crisis in 2012 was a turning point as people became more aware of covert political aspects within dominant money games. This led to a sharp increase in interest in Bitcoin-related apps, especially in the states suspected of having issues in their banking sectors.

The adoption of cryptocurrencies then started gaining a solid footing in the early 2010s when the followers of bitcoin launched a campaign of fighting the good fight against perceived oppressive and restrictive established money games. Starting as political challenges to overshadow the money system nationally and worldwide, cryptocurrencies developed into payment options accepted by numerous merchants such as e-Bay and Airbnb. Cryptocurrencies not only evolved as a modicum of exchange but also as tools to store value where people keep their wealth in crypto-assets. By 2021, the market capitalization of crypto-assets has tripled to an all-time high of USD 2.5 trillion. Significant economic activity has also been generated due to the rapid growth and dissemination of cryptocurrencies. For instance, there are chances for new enterprises like manufacturers of mining hardware as well as a rapidly expanding market for investors. Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) and tokenization have gained significant market traction, popularizing cryptocurrencies as a means of financing.

The development of cryptocurrencies contributes to introducing an auditable and transparent payment system. Their existence might challenge the current well-established money games, yet at the same time, it also lays a strong foundation for achieving the idea of a cashless society. Cryptocurrencies could play a significant role in bridging the transitions. However, despite the countless benefits of its rapid growth, cryptocurrencies are still considered disruptive innovations within the global political-economic context. The fast expansion of the crypto ecosystem is accompanied by the emergence of new entities, some of which have poor operational, cyber risk management, and governance framework. Consequently, the crypto ecosystem is exposed to significant downtime risks due to poor designated systems, the hacking-related risk targeting consumers’ funds, and the imbalance distribution of crypto assets which could result in investor losses. Those risks might look insignificant on a small scale, but as crypto popularity increases, they threaten global financial stability.

Further, the transparency offered by cryptocurrencies has become a double-edged sword. Transactions are recorded in a public ledger validated using a computation machine; therefore, transparency can be warranted. However, the protocols are designed to ensure that the computer solving the problem is unaware of whose transaction it is currently working on, which led to the creation of an anonymity nature. This characteristic, along with the lack of regulations for their field operations, made cryptocurrencies have interesting potential for passing the law or conducting illicit actions such as money laundry, dark market payment, or even terrorism financing. Anonymity also presents a loophole for people to avoid tax on their transactions or their wealth. With cryptocurrencies, criminal conduct could never be easier, and these shortcomings would potentially shatter the stability of the global political economy.

The Declining of Cryptocurrencies: Why Now?

After experiencing a peak point in 2021, the value of cryptocurrencies plummeted at the beginning of the year and worsened by the end of 2022. The fall has been sharp and extreme: only in March 2022, the market was projected to be worth more than USD 3 trillion; recently, it is barely valued at less than USD 1 trillion. After 14 years of glory and predicted to be the future form of money games, cryptocurrencies cannot maintain their stability; however, why now? According to Hütten & Thiemann, the vision of radically decentralizing the financial system became one of the prominent factors that brought cryptocurrencies to downfall. When the existence of cryptocurrencies has more and more disruptive potential, further formal regulations are increasingly being applied. Powerful institutions started building a legal framework for cryptocurrencies and establishing infrastructure to integrate the developing technology makes cryptocurrencies lose their political objectives and have to forego their normative demands.

The failure of adoption also contributes to their declining desirability. Instead, as the modicum of exchanges, cryptocurrencies were more popular as speculative assets where people benefit from their high volatility. As merchants have less commitment to using cryptocurrencies and only use them as payment options among many other payment methods, cryptocurrencies have stagnated in their real-life adoption. Further, the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies and stricter rules imposed by powerful entities has made the crypto ecosystem bestowed by political power. It means that cryptocurrencies’ values would be affected by the dynamic of the global political situation, such as rising inflation or war in Ukraine. In the end, after 14 years of popularity, cryptocurrencies might give up the long-life dream of decentralized money games. Instead, they could end up as game-changers to significantly improve central banks’ functions, away from their original visions.

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Economy

The suffocating economy of Iran

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Iran’s economy is on a roller coaster. The past year saw a dramatic rise in inflation rates and a historic fall in the value of the rial. The protests which followed the death of a 22-yar old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini have magnified the creaks in the country’s economy.

On  January 22, The Iranian rial was selling at an exchange rate of 450,000 against the greenback, an all-time low. The rial has lost 29% of its value since the time the protest started. Iran’s statistical agency reported an inflation rate of 48.5% in December 2022, the highest level since 1995. November data recorded food inflation of above 70% in 12 provinces of the country.

Reports from the country suggest that more than half of the population is living below the poverty line due to spiraling prices. As per the latest forecast, the World Bank predicts a GDP growth of 2.9% for Iran in 2022 which will slow down to 2.2% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024 owing to “slower growth in key trading partners and new export competition from discounted Russian oil”. However, the government’s response to the bleak economic indicators so far had been subtle and unperturbed.

Causes

The unilateral withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal in 2018 and the sanctions that followed on oil exports and international banking has put heavy stress on the country’s economy.

 The country’s government debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 45% in 2020. According to World Bank, Iran’s unemployment rate reached 12.2% in 2020 before narrowly dipping to 11.5% in 2021. Iranian daily Etemad had reported that at least 23 workers have committed suicide since March 2022 in the country due to reasons like dismissal, punishment, or threats.

The government lifted import subsidies for essential goods in April 2022, to ease the pressure off the strained government budget, which subsequently triggered rapid spikes in food prices during May-June.

The Federal Reserve in November tightened its control over Iraqi commercial banks to restrict the illegal siphoning of dollars to Iran and other Middle-East countries. The new regulations blocked a huge chunk of daily dollar wire transfers to Iran. The Taliban takeover in 2021 had previously blocked access to hard currency to Iran via the Afghan route.

Amid the uprising, European Parliament approved a resolution designating the Iranian militia, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a ‘terrorist’ organization. It also called for sanctions on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raisi, and others. The US and UK too imposed fresh sanctions on Iran.

Response

Iran retaliated on January 25th by imposing sanctions on 34 British and European individuals and entities.

Former Central Bank of Iran governor Ali Salehabai had been sacked in December due to failure to control the rapid depreciation of the rial. According to analysts in the region, the Central Bank is injecting dollars into the market to thwart further depreciation.

In late January, the Central Bank decided to raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to individuals annually from 2000 euros to 5000 euros, to instill confidence and ward off fears about the availability of currency. The cap was initially introduced to stabilize the currency after the US pull-out of the nuclear deal in 2018.

Iran has not resorted to austerity to tide over the crisis. Instead, President Ebrahim Raisi presented a noticeably enlarged national budget in January to boost growth. Valuing 21,640 trillion rials, the budget is 40% larger than the previous one. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was allocated $3 billion registering a 28% rise over the last year, in a taunting message to the west.

Recently, Iran introduced gold coin certificates in the stock market to raise cash and mitigate inflation. The government is desperate to raise cash as the government budget is posting a deficit of $9.75 billion. Critics point out unrealistic revenue estimates riding on oil sales and over-optimistic tax collection figures.

To raise revenue, Iran has increased its oil exports to China to more than 1.2 million barrels per day over the past three months. The sanctions have in effect caused Iran to warm up to western rivals like China and Russia. Iran and Russia are reportedly in talks over the introduction of a stablecoin, backed by gold, to bypass western sanctions in cross-border transactions.

Iran’s response to the looming economic crisis was devoid of any extreme desperation. The government took all necessary steps to keep the dread within bounds. The present security situation in the country could go haywire if the economy collapses.

It remains to be seen how fast the government can ensure reliable alternate arrangements in place to sustain the economy. If not immediately, chances are high that the country may drift to panic mode.

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Prospects of Vietnam’s Economic Growth in 2023

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The ongoing  war in Ukraine and increasing commodity prices across the world have impacted the developing countries. Countries in Asia which were recovering from the COVID-19 impact on their economies have to rework their recovery process by looking for alternate supply chains and reducing their financial responsibilities towards social sector through budgetary management. Among the developing economies in Asia , Vietnam showed an economic growth of nearly 3 per cent  even when many of the countries were witnessing  recession and reduced production because of adverse impact of COVID-19 .The stimulus packages that the governments across the world have to give to the manufacturing sector to accelerate production and meet the demands of the people. In a report released by World Bank in August last year it was stated that the Vietnamese economy is likely to grow by nearly 7.2 per cent in 2023 and it is going to sustain itself in 2024 with a likely growth projection of 6.7 per cent. These are encouraging signs .Few of the sectors which might be accelerating the growth process would be in the field of footwear and electronics. Vietnam itself has been undertaking strong anti corruption measures so as to facilitate stronger economic fundamentals and recovery from the COVID-19 impact.

The economic growth of Vietnam has been accelerating and the agricultural sector has been productive in ensuring food security for Vietnamese citizens. As per one of the estimates this sector contributed more than 14 per cent in national gross domestic product and has engaged more than 35 per cent of youth in the year 2020. This sector also earned valuable foreign exchange of more than U.S. dollar 48 billion. One of the interesting achievements of Vietnam has been increasing life expectancy, and its universal health coverage which covers more than 87 per cent of the population.

As per the plan of action which has been envisaged  for Vietnamese economy by its leadership it aspires to become a high income country by the year 2045. It is expected that with the sound economic fundamentals and more than 5.5 annual average per capita growth for the next 2 and a half decades it can reach that milestone. Vietnamese population is also young and is adapting itself for digital economy and building core fundamentals for its membership in different regional economic organisations such as RCEP and CPTPP.The bilateral free trade agreement with EU is also facilitating its growth in several sectors.

There have been significant structural improvements ushered through policy documents in terms of improving financial architecture, accepting global norms related to climate and environment, comprehensive security for population against poverty , and extensive investment in infrastructure development both in rural and urban areas.

In one of the articles written  in Bloomberg it has acknowledged that Vietnam is  now is one of the Asia’s  fastest growing economies which has grown to 8.02% last year and it even surpassed  government assessment of 6 to 6.5 per cent growth. The article also acknowledged the fact that manufacturing has been growing to near 10 per cent mark in comparison to last year and there is strong development in the services sector as well. Among the economies Vietnam’s  inward foreign direct investment has also been doing quite well and it has received nearly US  $27.72 billion last year .Asian Development Bank has forecasted that Vietnam is going to grow at the rate of 6.3% in the year 2023. Also the unemployment rate has reduced and with inflation clearly under 5 per cent , showcases that the long term decisions which we have taken with the initiation of Doi Moi(economic liberalisation process )  in 1986 has been bearing fruits.

In terms of sectoral assessment, the real estate as well as construction  sector ,the growth was about 7.78 per cent last year and the services sector growth was closer to 10 per cent. There have  been increase in exports last year as well and an increase of 10.6% was noticed. One of the core arguments which have been given with regard to Vietnam’s impressive growth has been related to trade liberalization, increased deregulation and improvement in the ease of doing business, investment in human resources and stable government were seen as critical attributes for this impressive growth in Vietnamese economy.

Major companies in footwear, electronics, and mobile production have invested in Vietnamese economy and few of the companies have shifted base from China to Vietnam. Improved  congenial economic environment has been appreciated by companies such as Adidas, Nike and Samsung to list few.

Owing to the development of new kind of digital technologies and better consumer awareness Vietnam is preparing itself for a major impetus in the E- commerce sector and therefore has been making extensive changes in digital based economy and more stress on science and technology development. Vietnam has acknowledged the fact that with the changes in sectoral composition of the economy, it is pertinent to develop necessary skill power and human resources which can seamlessly integrate Vietnam into global value chains and also help the services sector in exploring new markets.

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