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Decline of the West? Pros and Cons

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For a long time, there’s been a consensus among Russian international experts regarding the idea that the collective West is nearing extinction. It can be considered one of the basic premises of Russian foreign policy doctrine. It has found wide support among experts. In the West itself, there are many who point to the problems of the “liberal world order” and the declining influence of the United States and its allies. Moreover, there is a very deep intellectual tradition of viewing the West as a deteriorating and doomed community. It’s enough to recall Nietzsche’s “God Is Dead”, Spengler’s “Decline of the West”, and the discussion about the “Decay of the West” in Russian political philosophy to observe powerful arguments in favour of the death of the capitalist West, both in Marxism and in the modern concepts of neo-Marxists about the “future demise of the capitalist world system”. The conceptual scheme of the waning of the West fits well with the media coverage. The collapse of the Western coalition in Afghanistan, protests and even riots in the United States and Europe, political intrigues between the closest allies, and the erosion of the cultural code amid migration flows, and much, much more.

It would seem that there is nothing to doubt. The proud and selfish giant is about to fall to pieces. And in place of the world order he created, a still incomprehensible, but completely different world will arise. The transition will be painful and turbulent. But the old world with a dominant West will no longer be possible. It could indeed be so. However, this option should still be considered only as one among a number of possible scenarios. “Fading” in itself can take decades, if not centuries. In addition, the future loves to surprise, not always pleasantly. It may turn out that extinction is only part of a wider cyclical picture, and after the stage of turbulence, another round of growth will appear. Strictly speaking, the conventional West has been seething throughout its history. It stands on the bones of bloody wars, revolutions, social upheavals and breakdowns of basic social institutions. However, the West again emerged from the abyss of history, changing political forms, development models and the nature of its expansion. But not disappearing and not retreating forever.

Our own Russian experience should also be considered a great lesson. Some 20 years ago, Russia was considered a state approaching inevitable extinction. Contrary to these expectations, however, the “fading” Russia ignited everything around it so much that many felt uncomfortable. Post-revolutionary Soviet Russia was considered just as doomed in its time, with its hunger, devastation and incomprehensible government. The USSR surprised many. And more than once. The last surprise, however, was its disintegration, also expected by few. Russia’s return to grand politics in the 2000s is unlikely to insure against gloomy scenarios. But it teaches that even extinction is a non-linear and unpredictable process. Its results can be exactly the opposite of the original expectations.

There are several serious arguments in favour of the numerous supporters of the idea of the extinction of the West. The first is the clear limit of political and normative expansion. Middle East interventions have been phased out, although the global presence remains. The “waves of democracy” have faded so far. The second is the growth of major rivals in the face of Russia and China. Both countries pose a serious military and political challenge. In addition, China is developing at a faster pace technologically, while Russia retains its technological groundwork in the field of defence and security. The third is the accumulation of imbalances in the world economy, the politicisation of world finance, fraught with the West losing its leadership in this area. Fourth, there are tensions within the Western security community. Consolidation in the face of the Russian threat has brought NATO back to life. However, attempts to reorient NATO to contain the PRC have not caused enthusiasm yet, and the same could be said of efforts to increase defence budgets. Not everything is simple in the Asian region either. The political fervour of containing the PRC is tempered by the still-high importance of the Chinese market. The prospects for the synchronisation of the European and Asian wings of the Western alliances also raises questions. Fifth — domestic political challenges. Western societies are periodically feverish from social movements, especially intensified against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic.

At the same time, there are a number of signs that the West’s margin of safety remains high. The United States and its allies remain the world’s leading economies. Key technologies are concentrated in their hands. Yes, China is quickly catching up, and in some areas ahead. But the achievements of the PRC do not mean the automatic disappearance of the corresponding competences in the West. Moreover, the race can stimulate the concentration of resources in pursuing large technology projects. The United States and the West as a whole retain their leading positions or are capable of breaking through in all key technological areas.

Despite the obvious problems in the structure of Western alliances, no one else could be able to create similar structures. Neither the SCO, nor the BRICS, nor any other structure can yet compete in terms of the level of consolidation with the Western political and economic blocs. Such structures are very worn out and crack in the wind, but they are in no hurry to fall. Moreover, there is a constant search for new formats. At times it is very chaotic or cynical towards its own allies, as happened with AUKUS. However, local chaos and cynicism have not yet brought down the entire structure.

The defeat of the democratisation and modernisation of Afghanistan, as well as the retreat of democracy in a number of other countries and regions does not mean the collapse of the Western normative model. No other community has yet been able to successfully exploit the values of freedom, human rights, the rule of law, and other principles of the Enlightenment, while maintaining democracy as the main political value. The West will remain a significant value guide. China, Russia and any other power may well offer intelligible projects for their internal audiences based on patriotism and their own culture. But they will be forced to wage a constant defensive war. On the field of values, they lack the means for a large-scale offensive. Patriotism is a powerful tool for internal consolidation, but it cannot be exported outside. Western leaders also build their identity on their own patriotism. But they also have the potential to export a more universal value framework. That is, they are capable of pursuing an active, offensive policy in the field of values. Failures in such a policy are inevitable. That does not mean the termination of such attempts and their failure in the future.

Social protests, scandals and other upheavals in Western democracies are rather normal. Behind the external fluidity lies the stability of institutions, as well as their ability to digest existing faults and conflicts. At least for now. The erosion of “traditional values” should not be exaggerated either. The West is indeed at the forefront of emancipation, although on this issue it is extremely heterogeneous. Even on the scale of one country, “free morals” can be combined with very radical conservatism.

Without a doubt, in the near term, the collective West will remain a serious military-political and regulatory challenge for Russia. Overestimation of the degree of its extinction and underestimation of the existing potential are fraught with complications in the implementation of Russian national interests.

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Ron Paul: Biden Administration accept that it has a “Zelensky problem”

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Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson

Last week the world stood on the very edge of a nuclear war, as Ukraine’s US-funded president, Vladimir Zelensky, urged NATO military action over a missile that landed on Polish soil.”

This is a comment from the prominent American political leader Ronald Ernest Paul was for many years the member of the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas. Three times he sought the Presidency of the United States: once as the Libertarian Party nominee and twice as a candidate for the Republican Party. He continues in his comment:

“But there was a problem. The missile was fired from Ukraine – likely an accident in the fog of war. Was it actually a Russian missile, of course, that might mean World War III.

‘While Zelensky has been treated as a saint by the US media, the Biden Administration, and both parties in Congress, something unprecedented happened this time: the Biden Administration pushed back. According to press reports, several Zelensky calls to Biden or senior Biden Staff went unanswered.

‘The Biden Administration went on to publicly dispute Zelensky’s continued insistence that Russia shot missiles into NATO-Member Poland. After two days of Washington opposition to his claims, Zelensky finally, sort of, backed down.

‘We’ve heard rumors of President Biden’s frustration over Zelensky’s endless begging and ingratitude for the 60 or so billion dollars doled out to him by the US government, but this is the clearest public example of the Biden Administration’s acceptance that it has a “Zelensky problem.”

‘Zelensky must have understood that Washington and Brussels knew it was not a Russian missile.

‘Considering the vast intelligence capabilities of the US in that war zone, it is likely the US government knew in real time that the missiles were not Russian. For Zelensky to claim otherwise seemed almost unhinged. And for what seems like the first time, Washington noticed.

‘As a result, there has been a minor – but hopefully growing – revolt among conservatives in Washington over this dangerous episode. Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene introduced legislation demanding an audit of the tens of billions of dollars shipped to Ukraine – with perhaps $50 billion more in the pipeline.

‘When the Ukraine war hysteria finally dies down – as the Covid hysteria died down before it – it will become obvious to vastly more Americans what an absolute fiasco this whole thing has been,” writes Ron Paul.

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The G20 is dead. Long live the G20

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The seventeenth G20 Heads of State and Government Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, on 15–16 November stands out as a consequential event from many angles. The international politics is at an inflection point and the transition will not leave unaffected any of the institutions inherited from the past that is drifting away forever. 

However, the G20 can be an exception in bridging time past with time present and time future. The tidings from Bali leave a sense of mixed feelings of hope and despair. The G20 was conceived against the backdrop of the financial crisis in 2007 — quintessentially, a western attempt to burnish the jaded G7 by bringing on board the emerging powers that stood outside it looking in, especially China,  and thereby inject contemporaneity into global discourses. 

The leitmotif was harmony. How far the Bali summit lived up to that expectation is the moot point today. Regrettably, the G7 selectively dragged extraneous issues into the deliberations and its alter ego, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), made its maiden appearance in the Asia-Pacific. Arguably, the latter must be counted as a fateful happening during the Bali summit. 

What happened is a negation of the spirit of the G20. If the G7 refuses to discard its bloc mentality, the cohesion of the G20 gets affected. The G7-NATO joint statement could have been issued from Brussels or Washington or London.  Why Bali? 

The Chinese President Xi Jinping was spot on saying in a written speech at the APEC CEO Summit in Bangkok on November 17 that “The Asia-Pacific is no one’s backyard and should not become an arena for big power contest. No attempt to wage a new cold war will ever be allowed by the people or by the times.” 

Xi warned that “Both geopolitical tensions and the evolving economic dynamics have exerted a negative impact on the development environment and cooperation structure of the Asia-Pacific.” Xi said the Asia-Pacific region was once a ground for big power rivalry, had suffered conflicts and war. “History tells us that bloc confrontation cannot solve any problem and that bias will only lead to disaster.”

The golden rule that security issues do not fall within the purview of G20 has been broken. At the G20 summit, the western countries held the rest of the participants at the Bali summit to ransom: ‘Our way or no way’. Unless the intransigent West was appeased on Ukraine issue, there could be no Bali declaration, so, Russia relented. The sordid drama showed that the DNA of the western world hasn’t changed. Bullying remains its distinguishing trait.

But, ironically, at the end of the day, what stood out was that the Bali Declaration failed to denounce Russia on the Ukraine issue. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey give reason for hope that G20 can regenerate itself. These countries were never western colonies. They are dedicated to multipolarity, which will ultimately compel the West to concede that unilateralism and hegemony is unsustainable. 

This inflection point gave much verve to the meeting between the US President Joe Biden and the Chinese President Xi Jinping at Bali. Washington requested for such a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit, and Beijing consented. One striking thing about the meeting has been that Xi was appearing on the world stage after a hugely successful Party Congress. 

The resonance of his voice was unmistakable. Xi underscored that the US has lost the plot, when he told Biden: “A statesman should think about and know where to lead his country. He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world.” (here and here)

The White House readouts hinted that Biden was inclined to be conciliatory. The US faces an uphill challenge to isolate China. As things stand, circumstances overall work to China’s advantage. (here , here and here)

The majority of countries have refused to take sides on Ukraine. China’s stance amply reflects it. Xi told Biden that China is ‘highly concerned’ about the current situation in Ukraine and support and look forward to a resumption of peace talks between Russia and China. That said, Xi also expressed the hope that the US, NATO and the EU ‘will conduct comprehensive dialogues’ with Russia.   

The fault lines that appeared at Bali may take new forms by the time the G20 holds its 18th summit in India next year. There is reason to be cautiously optimistic. First and foremost, it is improbable that Europe will go along with the US strategy of weaponising sanctions against China. They cannot afford a decoupling from China, which is the world’s largest trading nation and the principal driver of growth for the world economy. 

Second, much as the battle cries in Ukraine rallied Europe behind the US, a profound rethink is under way. Much agonising is going on about Europe’s commitment to strategic autonomy. The recent visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to China pointed in that direction. It is inevitable that Europe will distance itself from the US’ cold war aspirations. This process is inexorable in a world where the US is not inclined to spend time, money or effort on its European allies.

The point is, in many ways, America’s capacity to provide effective global economic leadership has irreversibly diminished, having lost its pre-eminent status as the world’s largest economy by a wide margin. Besides, the US is no longer willing or capable of investing heavily in shouldering the burden of leadership. Simply put, it still has nothing on offer to match China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This should have had a chastening influence and prompted a change of mindset toward cooperative policy actions, but the American elite are stuck in the old groove.

Fundamentally, therefore, multilateralism has become much harder in the present-day world situation. Nonetheless, the G20 is the only game in town to bring together the G7 and the aspiring developing countries who stands to gain out of a democratised world order. The western alliance system is rooted in the past. The bloc mentality holds little appeal to the developing countries. The gravitation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia toward the BRICS conveys a powerful message that the western strategy in conceiving the G20 — to create a ring of subaltern states around the G7 — has outlived its utility. 

The dissonance that was on display in Bali exposed that the US still clings to its entitlement and is willing to play the spoiler. India has a great opportunity to navigate the G20 in a new direction. But it requires profound shifts on India’s part too –away from its US-centric foreign policies, coupled with far-sightedness and  a bold vision to forge a cooperative relationship with China, jettisoning past phobias and discarding self-serving narratives, and, indeed, at the very least, avoiding any further descent into beggar-thy-neighbour policies.

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President Biden under fire

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Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz

Republicans announced that they are launching an investigation that will focus on President Biden himself and any illicit or unethical financial ties he had to his son Hunter’s overseas dealings, writes “The Daily Mail”.

Now Joe Biden and his family are facing an onslaught of subpoenas from the House majority members, who say they know where the proverbial bodies are buried.

Rep. James Comer led the press conference, where he made clear that the president himself was the target of the House GOP’s probe. He is a ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, will have the power to issue legally-backed demands for documents, information and testimony once the 188th Congress begins on January 3.

The congressman laid out his plans to use that power to go after the Bidens for alleged wire fraud, tax evasion, money laundering, illegal foreign lobbying and defrauding the government.

The evidence Comer is currently combing through, and is seeking to claw via subpoena, could ultimately result in articles of impeachment for the president and prison for the First Son.

Comer is also asking the Treasury for copies of more than 150 suspicious activity reports (SARs) involving the Bidens, filed by banks under anti-financial crime laws, that could be key to tracing the flows of foreign funds to the family’s coffers.

Amid all the shocking messages involving Joe Biden, possibly the most important email of the 154,000 on Hunter’s abandoned laptop is the infamous ‘big guy’ email, suggesting that the president was secretly involved in, and set to profit from, an alleged Chinese influence operation.

In total Joe met with fifteen of Hunter’s business associates according to White House visitor logs and records from the First Son’s laptop.

Emails on Hunter’s abandoned laptop published by DailyMail.com show that Hunter and Joe paid each other’s bills, and Hunter’s business partner Eric Schwerin did Joe’s taxes and visited the then-VP at the White House at least 27 times.

Joe also hosted Hunter’s best friend, business partner and now convicted fraudster Devon Archer at the White House just days before Archer and Hunter were appointed to the Burisma board (Ukraine) in 2014.

Archer was entertained at the West Wing on April 16 2014 according to visitor logs. Joe traveled to Kiev five days later on April 21. The next day, Archer joined the Ukrainian gas company’s board. On April 28, British officials froze $23million in accounts belonging to Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevsky, accusing him of fraud. The following month Hunter also joined the gas firm’s board.

Soon we may see some ugly tricks of Biden’s Ukrainian friends revealed…

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