According to the latest Data by Worldometer on 30 October, there ae total number of Covid -19 cases reached up to 246,743,439, the total number of death toll reached: 5,004,370, however number of record is: 223,529,314. The US is the worst-hit country with the number of cases: 8,979,236, and a death toll of 140,392. India is the second-largest worst-hit country with the number of COVID-19 cases: 8,432,546 and a death toll of 236,220. Whereas Brazil is in third place with the number of cases: 21,793,401, and the death toll of 607,504.
Pakistan stands at 33rd position with the number of Corona Cases: 1,271,687, and the death toll of 28,431. Pakistan is a developing country, and passing through the worst economic crisis, but, the visionary leadership of Pakistan, opted for an innovative strategy to overcome the Coronavirus, with a smart approach. As a result, the COVOD-19 has almost come under control, with the ratio of new cases dropping to almost 1.4 percent for quite some time.
Pakistan has been focused on managing the repeated COVID-19 infection waves, implementing a mass vaccination campaign, expanding its cash transfer program, and providing accommodative monetary conditions to sustain economic growth. Grappling with the fourth COVID-19 wave, the Government, as before, implemented micro-lockdowns that successfully limited the infection spread, while permitting economic activity to continue and thereby mitigating the economic fallout. While they have been accelerating, vaccination rates remain low. As of end-September 2021, only around 12 percent of the total population has been fully vaccinated.
The 39-month IMF-Extended Fund Facility (IMF-EFF) is likely to resume in FY22 with the 6th Review mission expected in October 2021. Key reforms supported by the EFF include domestic revenue mobilization, the reduction of power sector arrears, electricity subsidy reform, and more central bank operational autonomy, all of which are expected to strengthen long-term growth.
Due to low-base effects and recovering domestic demand, real GDP growth (at factor cost) is estimated to have rebounded to 3.5 percent in FY21 from a contraction of 0.5 percent in FY20. Buttressed with record-high official remittance inflows, received through formal banking channels, and an accommodative monetary policy, private consumption, and investment are both estimated to have strengthened during the FY. Government consumption is also estimated to have risen, but at a slower pace than in FY20 when the COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package was rolled out. In contrast, net exports are estimated to have contracted in FY21, as imports growth almost doubled that of exports due to strong domestic demand. On the production side, supported by strong large-scale manufacturing, industrial activity is projected to have rebounded after contracting for two consecutive years. Similarly, the services sector that accounts for 60 percent of GDP, is estimated to have expanded, as generalized lockdown measures were increasingly lifted. In contrast, agriculture sector growth is expected to have slowed, partly due to a near 30 percent decline in cotton production on account of adverse weather conditions.
Despite slowing to 8.9 percent in FY21 from 10.7 percent in FY20, headline consumer price inflation remained elevated – mostly because of high food inflation, which is likely to disproportionately impact poorer households that spend a larger share of their income on food items compared to non-food items. With the policy rate being held at 7.0 percent throughout FY21, real interest rates were negative, supporting the recovery.
The current account deficit narrowed from 1.7 percent of GDP in FY20 to 0.6 percent in FY21 as robust remittance inflows offset a wider trade deficit. Foreign direct investment decreased, while portfolio inflows increased with the issuance of US$2.5 billion Eurobonds. Overall, the balance of payments surplus was 1.9 percent of GDP in FY21, and the official foreign exchange reserves rose to US$18.7 billion at end-FY21, the highest since January 2017 and equivalent to 3.4 months of total imports. Accordingly, the Rupee appreciated by 5.8 percent against the U.S. dollar over the FY, while the real effective exchange rate rose by 10.4 percent.
In FY21, the fiscal deficit narrowed to 7.2 percent of GDP from 8.0 percent in FY20, as revenue growth, underpinned by stronger domestic activity, outpaced higher expenditures. Public debt, including guaranteed debt, ticked down to 90.7 percent of GDP at end-June FY21 from 92.7 percent of GDP at end-June FY20.
Bolstered by the recovery in the industry and services sectors and resultant off-farm employment opportunities, poverty incidence, measured at the international poverty line of $1.90 PPP 2011 per day, is expected to have declined to 4.8 percent in FY21 from 5.3 percent in FY20. However, this change is not statistically significant, and downside risks arising from lockdown-induced disruptions to employment and high food inflation remain.
In line with the 25-basis point policy rate hike in September 2021, fiscal and monetary tightening are expected to resume in FY22, as the Government refocuses on mitigating emerging external pressures and managing long-standing fiscal challenges. Output growth is therefore projected to ease to 3.4 percent in FY22 but strengthens thereafter to 4.0 percent in FY23 with the implementation of key structural reforms, particularly those aimed at sustaining macroeconomic stability, increasing competitiveness, and improving the financial viability of the energy sector.
Inflation is projected to edge up in FY22 with expected domestic energy tariff hikes and higher oil and commodity prices before moderating in FY23. Poverty is expected to continue declining, reaching 4.0 percent by FY23. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 2.5 percent of GDP in FY23 as imports expand with higher economic growth and oil prices. Exports are also expected to grow strongly after initially tapering in FY22, as tariff reform measures gain traction supporting export competitiveness. In addition, the growth of official remittance inflows is expected to moderate after benefiting from a COVID-19 induced transition to formal channels in FY21.
Despite fiscal consolidation efforts, the deficit is projected to remain high at 7.0 percent of GDP in FY22 and widen to 7.1 percent in FY23 due to pre-election spending. Implementation of critical revenue-enhancing reforms, particularly the General Sales Tax harmonization, will support a narrowing of the fiscal deficit over time. Public debt will remain elevated in the medium-term, as well Pakistan’s exposure to debt-related shocks. This outlook assumes that the IMF-EFF program will remain on track.
Major downside risks include delays and stalling of the IMF-EFF program and the consequent external financing difficulties, exceedingly high domestic demand leading to unsustainable external pressures, more contagious COVID-19 strains requiring widespread lockdowns, and a worsening of regional and domestic security conditions, including those stemming from the Afghanistan situation. All these could delay critical structural reforms.
World Bank estimate. The Government’s preliminary growth estimate for FY21 is 3.9 percent. Pakistan’s performance is admired and may be utilized as guidelines for many other developing nations.
International Relations Degree: Jobs You Can Pursue with It
If you are interested in working in an international environment or company, you have probably thought about pursuing an international relations degree. Doing this opens many career doors, not only in world affairs or government. There are many rewarding careers you can pursue with an international relations degree, as you study a lot of distinct fields.
As a student, you are probably already looking for career opportunities, as you want to know what jobs you can apply to with this degree. Well, you should know that there are many and you have plenty of opportunities to choose from, depending on your goals, values, and what you like. So, what are the jobs you can pursue with an international relations degree? Find out below.
If you love politics and want to be active in this field, then maybe you could consider a job as a political consultant. What would be your responsibilities and tasks? Well, you are responsible for the image of a politician. This means you run campaigns to promote them and do press releases that endorse the image of the candidate. You have a lot of work, especially during campaign time that precedes the voting. You are kind of a PR, but for a politician. And this means you will interact with a lot of people and organizations, but companies too that can support your campaign and legislative changes.
If you decide to get an international relations degree, you will get the education you need to be an excellent political consultant. You will be introduced to a wide diversity of fields that prepare you for this, such as business, sales, public relations, and of course, politics. As a college student, you will learn about foreign policy, human rights, international finance, global democratization, and many more. And, of course, you will have to complete many assignments and write essays on these topics too. Studying international relations might feel challenging at times so you can use an essay maker to polish your writing skills and expand your knowledge. Writing skills are crucial, no matter the job you choose to pursue with your international relations degree.
With an international relations degree, you can get a job in the federal government as an intelligence specialist. This is a great opportunity to work for a state security agency, especially if you have always dreamed of doing this. National security is crucial for every country and these agencies, whether they are federal or military, are always searching for the best professionals to take this job. Your main duties would be collecting and analyzing information that is crucial for national security.
This means that you will work and take care of highly classified documents and files. But you also need to keep an eye on everything, as identifying the threats to national security is the main job. Getting an education and earning your international relations degree is not enough for being an intelligence specialist. You will need to undergo highly specialized training that will prepare you for handling sensitive documents and situations.
International Marketing Specialist
The world is changing at a fast pace and we need to adapt to it. Companies and businesses around the world are looking to increase their revenue and profits and many of them extend to other countries too. International organizations should always adapt to the culture of every country they are present in but promote a unified business model and view across the whole organization too. So, with an international relations degree, you can take a job as an international marketing specialist. Your responsibilities would be to take care of the marketing strategy, but also identify the main points and tactics you can use in every country.
You might focus on a specific country, but your main duty would be to find effective ways to increase the brand awareness of the company you work for. You will need to predict changes in marketing trends, identify risks, and, of course, find innovative and creative ways to promote the organization’s products and services among its target audience.
An international relations degree opens a lot of career doors and it comes with so many opportunities of working in the government or international environment. Depending on what you like doing and what your career goals are, you can work for a federal institution, international company or organization, or politician, but also in the economics and law domain. Keep an open mind for the opportunities that lie ahead.
Let girls be girls, not brides
Child marriage is very common menace in Pakistan and is deeply ingrained in traditional, societal, and customary norms. Yet it indicates a severe abuse of the human rights of girls. One in three girls in Pakistan get married before becoming 18 years old (Demographic and Health Survey 2012-13).
A girl’s access to a sound and secure childhood, a good education that can lead to better employability, civic and political empowerment are all violated through early marriages. With 1821 child brides in 2020, Pakistan was placed sixth among nations with the highest number of child brides. Girls lose their childhood and future opportunities when they are married as minors. Girls who marry are less likely to complete their education and are more vulnerable to abuse, marital rape, and health problems. Furthermore, child marriage puts girls at risk for unsafe births, ulceration, STDs, and maybe even death. Also, teenage girls are more likely than women in their 20s to pass away due to difficulties during pregnancy. Firstborn children of women who were 16 years old, 17 years old, and 18-19 years old at the time of birth experienced death rates that were, respectively, 2-4 times, and 1.2-1.5 times higher than those of mothers who were 23 to 25 years old. This is an unfortunate truth, that while the humankind has reached the moon and mars, our women are still dying from unsafe births.
This threat has also been documented in a number of previous articles. However, the latest event of the forced marriage of a young girl from Balochistan, who was just five years old, has shaken me from the core. The girl’s father filed a FIR with the Khuzdar Police Station alleging that his daughter was forced into marriage as a result of regional and tribal beliefs. After the FIR was filed, the Federal Shariah Court Chief Justice took suo-motu notice of the situation and stated that the act appeared to be against both the 1973 Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and Islam.
Factors behind forced marriages in Pakistan
There are several factors why early age marriages are prevalent in Pakistan. The majority of these causes include: permissive legislation; a failure to enforce existing laws; the treatment of children as slaves; a primitive feudal class fabric; lack of public awareness of the negative effects of child marriages; widespread poverty; Watta Satta (Weddings between the children of siblings or the exchange of girls in marriage between two households.) underlying trafficking; Concept of Vani (Another harmful tradition is the offering of girls, frequently minors, in marriage or enslavement to a family who has wronged them as payment to settle disputes) and a lack of political will on the part of the government. The inadequacy of birth registration system and lack of responsiveness is a major contributor to forced marriages. The age of the child or children at the time of marriage can be falsified because birth registration for minors, especially girls, is hardly given priority here. Moreover, there is no unified, impartial, or robust child rights associations that might keep an eye on violations of children’s rights, specially female teens.
The Prevention of Anti-Women Practices (Criminal Law Amendment) Act 2011, which has “reinforced protections for women against discrimination and abuse,” was passed in Pakistan in 2012, according to the country’s National UPR report to the HRC. Forced marriages, child marriages, and other social customs that are harmful to women are being made illegal.
The following headings represent how the Committee on the Rights of the Child addressed the problem of child or early marriages in its Final Report and Recommendations (2009): the child’s definition, Non-discrimination, respecting the child’s opinions, teenagers’ health, harmful societal customs, Trafficking and selling
The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women, whose Article 16 affirms that every woman has the right to get into matrimony “just with her free and unconditional approval,” have both been signed and ratified by Pakistan.
Pakistan has joined the Child Rights Convention, which requires state parties to uphold children’s rights to freedom of thought, conscience, and religion in Article 14.
The Sindh Provisional Assembly unanimously approved the Bill on November 2016 to put an end to forced marriages and conversions. The bill was compellingly prevented by the agitation of the Islamist groups and parties, and was never enacted into law.
First, it seems that nobody in Pakistan, including a lot of women, cares about the precarious status of women. In reality, some educated working women are subjected to so much harassment from men, their families, and society at large that they lack the strength to fight back against their critics. Therefore, the small group of women representatives campaigning for the rights of marginalised women in Pakistan deserve special recognition for their bravery in standing up for and promoting women’s rights despite the fact that doing so would subject them to harassment from males and society.
The government should spend on education particularly in marginalized areas of Pakistan where majority girls have no access to even primary education. Instead of just being a consequence of financial adversity, social conservatism may also contribute to the educational disparity between boys and girls. Long-term policy considerations need to be taken. Lack of maternal education would have a detrimental impact on future generations and is, therefore, just as important as boys’ education because it is believed that mothers’ education plays a significant part in children’s overall development and a complete generation.
Forced marriage victims are also denied access to their most basic yet important right, good education. Here, I want to share a story of a 17 year old advocate fighting child marriages from Swat. Given that it was customary in her household for girls to enter into marriage when they are old enough to fetch water, she was getting married to a taxi driver just at tender age of 11. In an interview, she stated:
“I bravely told my family that if they get me married to that person, I will file a case against them in law. Firstly, them and my community didn’t support me, even denigrated me. But now they do. One human being with conviction can bring the change”
Moreover, police need to be given the capacity to look into the culprits and take appropriate action. I definitely do not mean “Freedom From Law” or “No Accountability” when I talk about empowerment. To ensure that the complaints filed get noticed and are addressed, rigorous policies regarding the institution of police must be devised and put into effect along with increase in the severity of punishments for such activities.
All those engaged in a child marriage, including the parents of the bride and groom as well as the person who solemnises the marriage; the NikahKhwan shall face serious punishment.
The legal age for marriage should be the same for both sexes, which is 18 years. However, the system for registering births needs to be improved. Nadra needs to implement a digital birth registration system that is systematic and reliable.
Today is the day when we are officially 8 billion people living on Earth
Authors: Petra Nahmias. Tanja Sejersen, Thomas Spoorenberg, Vanessa Steinmayer*
The world is due to reach 8 billion people today, November 15! This very precise date hides an uncomfortable truth – we don’t really know exactly how many people there are in the world. This is especially true in lower-income countries; those where population growth is increasingly concentrated. While these milestones such as reaching 8 billion people are important in raising public awareness of population issues – such as unmet needs for family planning or changing population-age-structures – they can give a somewhat misleading impression of the certainty of our knowledge on population.
The population in Asia and the Pacific reached 4.67 billion in 2021, accounting for 59 per cent of the world’s population. The region is projected to be home to 5.17 billion people by 2050. But for both the regional and global population, there is actually a large degree of uncertainty over the exact number.
So how do we know when the world will reach 8 billion?
The day on which the world reaches 8 billion is determined by experts in the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and is based on estimates and projections for each country.
In order to determine the population size, we need to know the population at a particular point in time and consider changes as a result of births, deaths and cross-border migration, with migration being the most difficult to estimate.
The figure of 8 billion for the global population comes from the aggregation of the populations of all countries and areas of the world. Every two years, the Population Division releases a set of revised and updated population estimates, the World Population Prospects, starting from 1950 to 2021, and projections, from 2022 to 2100, for all the 237 countries and areas of the world. The population of each country or area is calculated by applying separately trends and levels of births by sex, and deaths and migration for each age and sex group of the known population of a specific earlier year. The national population is then projected forward by age and sex to come up with an estimate or a projection for each year, disaggregated by age and sex.
However, the production of quality population estimates and projections is dependent on the collection of reliable and timely demographic data from civil registration and vital statistics systems, population censuses, population registers and household sample surveys. Even today, in 2022, this collection of basic demographic information remains a challenge.
Many countries in Asia and the Pacific are far from achieving universal registration of births and deaths, which means they use surveys and censuses to calculate vital statistics and population estimates. While these sources can provide very important data of the situation at a particular time, they cannot provide continuous and timely data. The preferred source of vital statistics is a comprehensive civil registration system that collects information soon after the birth or death occurs. Because civil registration should be compulsory and universal, the resulting vital statistics are comprehensive and accurate and not subject to response or sampling errors that arise when vital statistics are estimated using household surveys or censuses.
An additional challenge is presented by the lack of census data and other survey data. Some countries have not conducted a population census in decades, while many countries postponed the most recent census due to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the census of India, accounting for some one-sixth of humanity, was delayed to 2023.
Will we know when we reach 9 billion?
Current projections suggest that we will reach 9 billion people in 15 years. We hope that by then we will have significantly improved the quality and availability of population data. We probably still won’t know the exact date but countries, the UN and development partners are working to make sure that we can determine it more accurately than we can now.
One example is how, in recognition of the importance of CRVS systems, governments in Asia and the Pacific are collectively working to achieve their common goals as listed in the Ministerial Declarations to “Get Every One in the Picture” and “Building a More Resilient Future with Inclusive Civil Registration and Vital Statistics”. Accordingly, participating governments developed the Regional Action Framework on CRVS in Asia and the Pacific, which includes goals on universal birth and death registration and the production and dissemination of accurate, complete and timely statistics, including basic population estimates. We have seen progress since the beginning of the Decade and we hope to accelerate it. Another example is work to improve the use of administrative data for censuses in the region.
Countries have also committed to improving data collection in the Ministerial Declaration of the Sixth Asia-Pacific Population and Development and ESCAP supports endeavours in that regard. Furthermore, the Population Division works to strengthen national capacities to estimate and analyse population levels and trends and other demographic indicators.
With these efforts and many more to come, we will hopefully be able to say with a bit more certainty when we really do reach 9 billion.
*Petra Nahmias Chief, Population and Social Statistics Section, Tanja Sejersen Statistician, Thomas Spoorenberg Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Vanessa Steinmayer Population Affairs Officer
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