First: Analysis of the potential scenarios of (Israeli-Arab or Iranian-Arab security coordination on Afghanistan), or the extent of success of the (joint security coordination between Turkey and Israel inside Afghanistan), according to the Israeli intelligence point of view
Second: My analysis of the (content of the speeches of the Israeli military intelligence men and the Israeli Mossad) about the intelligence cooperation between Tel Aviv and Washington regarding Afghanistan… (I’m attaching it for the first time globally from an Egyptian researcher as a complaint to the international academic community towards the Israeli research and academic institutions and national libraries for not providing me the available researches, documents, data, and analyses and the required published Israeli publications on China’s relations with Egypt and the region)
Third: My analysis of the content of Israeli military intelligence websites and reports on (the joint security coordination between Israel and Turkey in Afghanistan in the face of the Taliban), its conflict with the Indian-Emirati interests as partners of Tel Aviv in the face of Turkey, and its impact on (the Abrahamic-Israeli peace agreements in the Arab Gulf and the East middle)
Fourth: Analyzing the possibility of Israel’s game in the future to form (a new joint Israeli-Arab security umbrella as an alternative to the joint Arab defense agreement) to protect against the threat of terrorism and confront terrorist organizations after the Taliban rule, focusing on (analyzing the role of the United Arab Emirates in the success of the Israeli security alliance in the region)
The Egyptian researcher has tried to analyze the content of Israeli military intelligence websites and reports regarding the Israeli Mossad intelligence presence in Afghanistan and the future expectations regarding the future potential scenarios and game of Israel’s strategy to make a (joint security coordination with Turkey in Afghanistan), and its affect on the Indian-Emirati interests as partners of Tel Aviv in the face of Turkey, and its impact on (the Abrahamic-Israeli peace agreements with Emirates and the Arab Gulf States).
On the other hand, the Egyptian researcher has attempted to analyze as well the Israeli potential scenarios and reactions to form (a new joint Israeli-Arab security agreement) to protect the Israeli interests and confront terrorist organizations after the Taliban rule, focusing on analyzing the role of the United Arab Emirates in the success of the Israeli security alliance in the region.
So, the Egyptian researcher has analyzed the following aspects to highly understand the whole situation and its potential impacts on the Middle East region and its security and stability, as the following:
First: Analysis of possible scenarios (Israeli-Arab or Iranian-Arab security coordination on Afghanistan), or the extent of success (joint security coordination between Turkey and Israel inside Afghanistan), according to the Israeli intelligence point of view
Perhaps the expected US withdrawal from Afghanistan opened the door wide for advanced analyzes regarding what the situation will be in the coming period, and most importantly to me the extent of its relationship with the Middle East region, and the balance of regional and international powers within it.
The Egyptian researcher was able, through her extensive reading in the recent period of all the analyzes that occurred under her eyes, regarding the possible roles of (Israeli, Iranian, Arab, Pakistani, Turkish) parts at Afghanistan to understand all what is going on in secret between the various previous parties, and its relationship to the Arab region and the Middle East in general, and this is what moved the researcher to research on several analytical fronts, regarding:
The impact of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan on the Middle East, the export and expansion of terrorism and the increase in the frequency of terrorist operations from the “leaaders of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq” known as “ISIS” in the region to demonstrate their defiance of the United States of America after its failure to manage the file of the war on terrorism in the region. Afghanistan, and how this relates to French President “Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Iraq” and his announcement of the French partnership with the countries of the region and Iraq to fight terrorism.
The Israeli-Iranian conflict and the extent to which it is affected by the increasing influence of Iran in Afghanistan through (the Hazara and Tajik Shiite minorities) in Afghanistan, and the extent to which Israel is able to recruit other ethnic and national sects, mainly in Afghanistan, to monitor these “Iranian movements in Afghanistan”, and Israel’s attempt to extend relations with countries The geographical neighborhood of Afghanistan, such as India, Bhutan and the Central Asian countries, to gather Israeli intelligence information about the Taliban’s movements and alliances with the Iranian side in that region, and whether it poses a threat to the security of Israel and the Middle East.
Which is closer to Arab cooperation against the idea of (exporting terrorism to the region from Afghanistan), according to the preference of interests, do we cooperate with Iran or Israel? In the sense that thinking, as I understood it analytically from the Iranian and Israeli points of view, is mainly focused on “the game of regional interests with the Arabian Gulf and Middle Eastern Countries”, which deepens our understanding of how the Israelis and Iranians work in this context, ie:
“Iran is presenting itself as the ideal partner for coordination with the Arab countries, especially the Gulf states, to help them protect their borders from the danger of Taliban militias extending and intrusion into the Arab interior, and on the Israeli side, the matter has become similar to that, with Israel trying to export itself as the most affected and dangerous than the danger of the Afghan Armed militias and extremist jihadist movements that target the security and stability of the Hebrew state, so Israel is trying from now to extend relations of cooperation and security and defense partnership and perhaps sign joint military agreements between Israel and its allies in the region who seek to undermine the influence, penetration, and influence of jihadist movements and extremist militias to the borders of the countries of the region, which is what a number of Arab countries, especially, the Gulf states, may push to coordinate security cooperation with the Israeli side to defend the security of the region and combat terrorism, as the Israeli side mainly promotes it”.
Here remains the most dangerous question, related directly to the previous question, and which stopped me for a long time with study, research and analysis, about:
What can actually happen if terrorism spreads to the Arab world and the Middle East from Afghanistan and the threat of ISIS and all the extremist groups and organizations associated with it spreads? Will the Arab regimes agree to form (a joint Israeli-Arab security umbrella to strengthen their collective front in the face of the threat of terrorism) as an alternative to the joint Arab defense umbrella to confront terrorism, which excludes any security rapprochement with Israel?
What are the forms of US-Israeli intelligence cooperation in Afghanistan, and its relationship to the Middle East? For example, the Egyptian researcher found that all Israeli military and intelligence analyzes have focused mainly on “the necessity and importaof Iransraeli coordination with Turkey to closely monitor the situation in Afghanistan” with the exclusion of Iran and Pakistan, of course, and the Israeli rapprochement with Turkey in the recent period to coordinate the matter about how to deal with the new situation and how to control it, which has not been analyzed at all in the countries of the region.
In the same context, the Israeli promotion of the importance of rapprochement with Turkey as an ideal choice for them in Afghanistan began, and we find that the same question is being repeated, regarding:
“Does Israel in Afghanistan tend to cooperate with Turkey more than (Pakistan, India), and why?”. This is according to what the Egyptian researcher has seen from Israeli military and intelligence analyzes that are publicly published in their military sites.
Accordingly, the Egyptian researcher analyzed when trying to track the effects of the future US withdrawal from Afghanistan on the future of Egypt, the Middle East and the region in general, and their relations with the surrounding regional powers to coordinate security with them primarily in (whether Israeli-Arab or Iranian-Arab coordination or the success of joint security coordination between Turkey and Israel or the possibility of success Israel in forming a security umbrella and front of alliances with the Arab world to confront terrorist organizations), according to the different analytical viewpoints, and in my personal belief that the future may bring us many surprises.
Second: My analysis of the (content of the speeches of the Israeli military intelligence men and the Israeli Mossad) about the intelligence cooperation between Tel Aviv and Washington regarding Afghanistan… (the Egyptian researcher is attaching for the first time a complaint to the international academic community towards the Israeli research and academic institutions and national libraries for not providing the researcher with the required available documents, data, research and analyses and the required published publications on China’s relations with Egypt and the region)
The Egyptian researcher has been very interested several years ago in trying to track all (Israeli military and intelligence analyzes), through well-known military sites, such as:
Breaking Defense & Debka
In addition to my constant knowledge, research and academically, of all the analyzes of the (Israeli Institute for National Security Studies) “INNS”
On the personal and analytical level that I am conveying to you, I found that in particular, the only department or program that interests me in the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies is the “Chinese Studies Program”, due to my precise specialization in Chinese affairs, and my continuous attempts to track all Israeli analyzes of Sino-Egyptian relations, and trying to present it to Egypt and the region every once in a while.
Hence, the Egyptian researcher will attempt to present her new international analysis for the first time, attached to it (a complaint submitted by me to the lack of cooperation from the Israeli academic and research institutions with me as an internationally and regionally known academic in Chinese and Asian political affairs, and the Israeli side’s reluctance to provide me with the required data and linking this to the aforementioned analysis), as follows:
The Egyptian researcher thinks that perhaps today I had the opportunity academically to complain about (the lack of cooperation by all Israeli academic and research institutions with the Egyptian researcher academically and research, and the failure to provide me with all the analyzes that interest me in my research area), and I do not know whether this is an Israeli intention or not?, whether (the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies) “INNS”, or the “Israeli National Library of the Hebrew University of Al-Quds”, which (contains almost all copies of all research published in all Israeli academic and research institutions).
The Egyptian researcher was also very interested in what stopped the Egyptian researcher and I think that it would “astonish the international, American and Western academic community as a whole”, when I tried to send emails to the “Israeli Institute for National Security Studies” with my real personality and all my academic data for verification, in order to provide me and sending all the researches published by them mainly on (Sino-Egyptian relations or China’s relations with the region, from an Israeli academic point of view, mainly , for academic and research purposes), is:
“The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, and specifically the “Chinese Studies Program” inside it, deliberately omitted and ignored the content of my request in the first place, and even deliberately sent them another email to their new branch in the Chinese capital “Beijing”, that is, to open the branch of the “Institute for Israeli National Security Studies in China”, to inquire From him about the required documents, and in my personal opinion, Israel is trying to draw the Egyptian researcher’s attention to their new branch in the capital, “Beijing”, despite “the absence of these Israeli academic analyzes in the first place at the branch of the Institute for Israeli National Security Studies in Beijing” related to analyzes and research on China-Egypt relations. And the region from the point of view of the Israelis themselves, so I think that this Israeli reluctance to cooperate with me in research and academically regarding my research areas and my specialization in Chinese political affairs, certainly has a “negative impact” on the Israeli academic side, because we do not understand in the region, the Arab world and Egypt the point of view of Israeli academics On Egypt’s relations with China and the region, mainly from an Israeli point of view, and therefore, it hinders Israel’s plans and attempts to build bridges of cooperation and political normalization or perhaps cooperation with all the countries and states of the region and the Arab world, and I believe that the opportunity has now opened for me for the whole world to read my view on that dangerous part related to our desire as Egyptian and Arab academics to understand the way of thinking and analyzing Our academic colleagues in Israel, however, there is Israel’s reluctance to cooperate with us in this regard, and I am confident that it is a point that has been raised for the first time internationally, especially with my complete possession and full of academic courage, by asking me all Israeli analyzes, statements, research and documents available for publication and public viewing in their libraries and research and academic centers, primarily, and by giving me the opportunity, as an Egyptian academic in Chinese and Asian political affairs, and even for all my other academic colleagues to review them, to understand the Israeli academic viewpoint on it, and “I’m confidentiality that my complaint will find a great international and academic resonance, due to my desire to understand Israel academically and the reluctance of the Israelis to help me in this matter”.
With the Egyptian researcher completely amazed at the question about (the reasons for the Israeli refusal to provide her with what she wants from research and academic data concerning her research and academic area in Chinese political affairs and its relationship with Egypt and the countries of the region, and trying to follow it from an Israeli point of view), knowing that I was surprised that “The Israeli National Library” has put in its own archive my own published papers within a book on China and Israel on its own website network, however, the “Israeli National Library officials” refused to provide me with important documents that they mainly have for public viewing, regarding my international analysis of the previous publication, on:
(The leaked Russian documents to the Israeli National Library during the period of the Israeli military rule in Palestine from 1948-1968)
Although the Russian documents are available for public viewing on the “Israeli National Library” website, “the Israelis refused to provide them to me completely by opening the link for them to view them, as an academic and research cooperative with me as an Egyptian academy known to them and internationally”, which is what I’m going to tell you, and I was very surprised.
Perhaps this previous point – although it may seem unimportant in the context I am talking about – is of great and utmost importance to me, related to the reasons for this (the Israeli selection and choice of those with whom Tel Aviv cooperates, and its schools and research institutions welcome them according to its interests).
Based on (the Israeli selective selection process for those who cooperate or refuse to cooperate with them), this quickly moves me to study and analyze (the aspects of Israeli-American intelligence and military cooperation in Afghanistan), especially after a number of Israeli officials visited Washington at the end of August 2021 as an Israeli request to strengthen intelligence cooperation (between the CIA and Mossad), in light of the United States’ exit from Afghanistan.
In general, and returning to my analytical point in this context, related to “analyzing Israel’s relationship with the Afghan issue after the withdrawal of the United States of America and the control of the Taliban’s rule”, the Egyptian researcher follows the most prominent of those Israeli defense and military sites, to get acquainted with their military vision for dealing with the region and for aspects of cooperation. The required, for fears of (the growing threat of the terrorist organization “ISIS” and its extension to Israel and its borders with Egypt, Lebanon and also Syria, given the occupation and the Israeli presence in the Syrian Golan Heights). We will find here, that the Israeli military intelligence analysis confirmed:
“The Israeli diplomacy prefer to open political, and even military channels of communication with Turkey regarding Afghanistan, to protect the “State of India” as Israel’s militarily ally in the South Asia region, given the difficulty of Israeli military-intelligence coordination with Pakistan and Iran as allies of China in the face of India, as an ally of Washington”
This brings the Egyptian researcher to a more serious point related to the reasons for the Turkish presence in Afghanistan, and the attempt to be present and communicate with the Taliban leaders to the extent that the Taliban leaders asked Turkey to modernize and rebuild the international airport in the capital “Kabul”, and whether that was (with a joint Turkish coordination with Israel in the face of (the Iranian-Pakistani moves as allies of China against India), whereas India is Washington’s ally in the region around Afghanistan)?
Here, the Israeli intelligence and military focus on the necessity of (improving the exchange of US-Israeli intelligence information) comes amid renewed fears that (the terrorist organization of ISIS) will use Afghanistan as a hub to launch new attacks on American and Israeli targets, whether in Afghanistan or the Middle East.
Here, the Israeli Mossad officers, through their military and intelligence positions, blame (ISIS in the Afghan province of Khorasan), the branch that focuses on Afghanistan, for the suicide bombing that targeted “Kabul Airport”, and resulted in the deaths of more than 200 people after the withdrawal of the United States of America from Afghanistan, including (13 American soldiers).
By following the Egyptian researcher on the Israeli military and defense sites, she found Israeli analyzes that confirm:
“There are indications that ISIS and its various proxies are terrorist acts, and it is now encouraged by the success of the Kabul airport and the lack of an appropriate American response to it as it exits Afghanistan”
Here, the Israeli military analysts agree on:
“Raising fears that the US intelligence network in Afghanistan will inevitably be paralyzed by the Biden administration’s departure from the country, with little human intelligence left behind and a possible lack of any intelligence on the horizon, even if at least a little of that intelligence on paper is needed to counter ISIS”
And here remains (the most dangerous analysis that the Egyptian researcher stopped at much, because based on it, the rest of her other analyzes will be based very carefully), which is the Israeli intelligence and military analysis published on Israeli defense and military sites, with the confirmation of the Israeli military generals, that:
“Israel’s major covert operation in the region could help complement US intelligence efforts in Afghanistan and elsewhere”
Here came the confirmation of Mossad officers and military generals in Tel Aviv, according to a special coverage on the Hebrew “Breaking Defense website”, which specializes in defense and security affairs, in their published statements, affirmed that:
“The Americans know that these Israeli capabilities can save lives, even in remote places”
With the confirmation of the Israeli military sources, according to the “Israeli military Breaking Defense Hebrew website”, about:
“That Mossad is particularly adept at taking raw data and turning it into action, and that people in Israel’s intelligence services see the little details that in many cases are crucial to stopping terrorist attacks”
In a publicly published statement in the Hebrew media and press, according to the head of the internationally known Israeli intelligence service “Ephraim Halevy”, the former head of the Israeli Mossad “Ephraim” mentioned literally, according to the “Breaking Defense website”, saying that:
“There are very close ties between terrorist organizations in countries bordering Israel, such as Syria and Lebanon, and similar organizations in the international arena”
With the most dangerous statement of the Egyptian researcher, which revealed all the dimensions of the Israeli game, and analyzed them carefully, according to the statements of the former head of the Israeli Mossad, “Ephraim Halevy”, about:
“Through close Israeli monitoring of terrorist organizations’ actions in neighboring countries, Israel is obtaining intelligence information that is “extremely vital to our allies” that would not be available without Israeli human intelligence sources on the ground”
In response to a request to comment on the statements of the former Mossad chief, the spokesman for the “American embassy in Jerusalem”, said that:
“We do not comment on intelligence issues”
It is worth noting here that the discussion about the increasing intelligence relations between Israel and the United States of America regarding Afghanistan comes after (the visit of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency “William Burns” to Israel in August 2021, and then he made a surprise trip to Afghanistan to meet the Taliban leadership), without any official clarification about the relationship between my visits to Kabul and Tel Aviv directly, which is something from my point of view, which raises a big question mark for me and I must stop at it for a long time, regarding (the visit of the Director of American Intelligence to Israel, then his visit to Afghanistan directly and not vice versa).
We also find the talks that took place between the Israeli Prime Minister (Naftali Bennett in Washington at the end of August to meet with President “Joe Biden” to discuss the US-Israeli intelligence plans in the post-Afghanistan era), but the meeting, which was scheduled due to the Kabul attack, was postponed to later date.
Here, the Egyptian researcher noted, according to the same American websites, to analyze the reasons for “Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali’s meeting with US President Joe Biden”, that “Naftali Bennett” carried with him two requests mainly during (Israel’s meeting in Washington on Afghanistan), and the two Israeli requests, they are basically:
A) The first Israeli request from the United States of America regarding Afghanistan:
Naftali’s requests from the American side mainly focused on joint coordination on Afghanistan, whereas the United States open foreign military funding to help Israel more quickly buy new fighters of “F-15”. And for the United States to help buy additional “Dome” interceptor missiles
With the Israeli assurance to the American side, according to Israeli military intelligence websites, that:
“Israel’s purchase of Dom missiles from Washington became necessary for Tel Aviv after Hamas fired nearly Dom missiles during the Israeli-Palestinian conflict earlier this year 2021”
B) The second Israeli request from the United States of America regarding Afghanistan:
The request of “Naftali Bennett”, the Prime Minister of Israel, came from Washington, that:
“Israel wants to get about $1 billion in new money to cover both Iron Dome’s needs and the Israeli Air Force’s ‘special munitions’”
Here, the Egyptian researcher noted, that the Israeli delegation of “Naftali Bennet” left Washington without obtaining a firm commitment on either of the two issues of funding from the United States of America.
Here, the Egyptian researcher concluded by reading the United States’ meeting with Israel, that Washington shed light on:
“Biden’s full support for the renewal of the Iron Dome system in Israel”
The Egyptian researcher also noted that Israel, in its requests from Washington, has linked (the US-Israeli cooperation on Afghanistan depends on Iran, which Washington was convinced of in the first place). Where we find that after the secret meeting session between (Biden and Naftali Bennett) in Washington, US President “Biden”, confirmed:
“The United States is committed to ensuring that Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon, but he has not backed away from his administration’s hopes for a political solution”
The most important thing here is what Joe Biden confirmed, regarding leaving all options open with the Israeli side regarding Iran, and dealing with Afghanistan or any other files that may arise for the benefit of the Hebrew state itself, as confirmed by US President Joe Biden, about:
“We put diplomacy first and see where that leads, but if diplomacy fails, we are ready to resort to other options”
And we conclude through the previous analysis very briefly in that part related to (how and the mechanism of Israeli coordination with the United States of America regarding Afghanistan), the words of US President “Joe Biden”, regarding Afghanistan, and his attempt to include “Iran” in the American-Israeli political equation, regarding everything related to security coordination and defense cooperation between Washington and Tel Aviv on Afghanistan.
Third: My analysis of the content of Israeli military intelligence websites and reports on (the joint security coordination between Israel and Turkey in Afghanistan in the face of the Taliban), and its conflict with the Indian-Emirati interests as partners of Tel Aviv in the face of Turkey, and its impact on (the Abrahamic-Israeli peace agreements in the Arab Gulf and the East middle)
The most prominent Israeli military intelligence reports, which were reviewed by the Egyptian researcher, came from (the well-known sites close to the Israeli military intelligence departments immediately after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan), and with the Taliban movement taking over the reins of power and control in the country. With the entire situation, and an (analysis of the content and context of the statements of the military spokesmen in Tel Aviv), by referring to the sites of the Israeli military intelligence, most notably, are:
The Hebrew “Breaking Defense” website, as an intelligence and security website, specialized in defense and security affairs.
“Debka website”, it’s an Israeli military intelligence website, headquartered in Jjerusalem. It is a well-known Israeli military intelligence website, providing mainly (Israeli military commentary) on issues related to terrorism, intelligence, national security, international and military relations, with a special focus on the Middle East. Knowing that DEBKAfile had won – in its Israeli military and intelligence capacity – the (Best Award-winning Website among the global websites), for its diverse and comprehensive intelligence analyzes from (Forbes International Magazine). Forbes magazine specifically identified the “archives” section of DEBKAfile as “the best part of this Israeli military intelligence site”, but Forbes magazine warned at the same time that (most of the information is attributed to unspecified sources). Based on the Egyptian researcher’s tracking of the most prominent and important reports, data and statements of the aforementioned Israeli military and intelligence sites, through which, the Egyptian researcher was able to extract and analyze the following scenarios and points:
By informing the Egyptian researcher of most of those “unknown or unidentified Israeli military and intelligence sources or the Israeli military identity”, she noticed that there is almost unanimous agreement in the Israeli analyzes issued by those Israeli sites, that (Turkey is the best and optimal option for For Israel to coordinate joint security with it in Afghanistan and on its borders to monitor the movements of the armed Taliban movement), given the difficulty of security coordination between Israel and Iran or Pakistan, given the impossibility of doing so, as is known.
Although Turkey has been publicly excluded several times from any “secret military cooperation with Israel”, the succession of events made the Egyptian researcher pause for a long time to analyze “the features of the increasing Turkish role and influence inside Afghanistan and the extent of its relationship with Israel”. The first thing that stopped me here, in research and analysis, is that (the Turkish request to manage the airport of the Afghan capital, “Kabul”).
But (this matter related to Turkey’s request from the Taliban leaders has been rejected), and this was what the spokesman for the Taliban movement, whose name is (Zabihullah Mujahid) publicly stated. In the name of the “Taliban movement”, that “the leaders of the Taliban movement want good relations with Ankara, but we strongly disagree with the presence of Turkish military forces in our country, because this is considered interference in our internal affairs”.
The Egyptian researcher also noted the extent of the Turkish insistence on (negotiating with Taliban leaders regarding the status of the international airport in Afghanistan under Turkish administration, with Turkish-American and international coordination), which was rejected by the Taliban leaders, with confirmation (Zabihullah Mujahid), spokesman for Taliban, that:
“Ankara does not allow us to send our forces to it to secure one of its airports, because this deed interferes in the internal affairs of other countries and is very dangerous, but despite that, we are ready to negotiate with Turkey, and it must realize our concerns, and we negotiated to settle and solve the dilemma”
The most important thing that caught my research and analytical attention was (Turkish negotiations with the United States to ensure the security and management of Hamid Karzai International Airport), with the Turkish assertion to Washington and the world that these fears are increasing from “the airport falling into the hands of Taliban leaders and militias since the movement launched an attack against the Taliban Afghan army”. In fact, the Turkish justification for the reasons for this insistence on its request to control the Afghan international airport was that “the Taliban movement has been leading a comprehensive attack against the Afghan forces since the withdrawal of US forces in May 2021 from Afghanistan”, while the international forces began the process of their final exit from the country at the end of last August 2021.
Perhaps what the Egyptian researcher concluded here is the question about (the reasons for this Turkish offer to control the international airport of Afghanistan), despite the presence of many international and regional forces that are closer and more understanding with the Taliban leaders and can present this request to them, discuss it and negotiate about it, especially Iran and Pakistan, but rather and Central Asian countries close to the immediate borders of Afghanistan.
In my opinion, too, “the Taliban movement may have read the scene carefully, and noticed the extent of Turkey’s adherence to being in the most sensitive and strategic areas in Afghanistan under the pretext of “maintaining regional and international peace and security”. Therefore, the Taliban sought to miss the opportunity for Turkey politically and security, and he himself what was confirmed by (Zabihullah Mujahid), the spokesman for the “Taliban“, by confirming the actual control of the Taliban movement over most of the regions of Afghanistan, sending messages of global reassurance, and in particular to the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, that:
“The leaders of the Taliban movement spoke with “neighboring countries about the crossings, and the situation will be urgently controlled and organized in the best way, and there will be no problem”
On the other hand, the policies of Turkish President “Erdogan” as a defender of the Muslim Brotherhood and the currents of political Islam contradict (the Abrahamic Alliance for Peace between Israel, the UAE and the Gulf), hence the Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, according to the analysis of the (weakening the Abrahamic-Israeli alliance to conclude peace agreements Political normalization with the countries of the Middle East, as well as his opposition to the UAE and the Hindu nationalist orientation of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who rejects Turkey’s sponsorship of political Islam currents), as well as India and the UAE’s explicit accusations of Turkey of encouraging their opponents, so both India and the UAE reject Turkish influence in Afghanistan and its surrounding area.
Despite (India’s encouragement of the Abrahamic peace agreements concluded between Israel, the UAE and the State of Bhutan with Indian mediation), India sees that Turkey is an obstacle to it. Therefore, tensions have escalated between India and Turkey, with (Turkey intensifying its support for Pakistan in the Kashmir issue in the face of India), since Erdogan’s rise to power, and what has increased the tension in Indo-Turkish relations is (Turkish President Erdogan’s speech before the United Nations General Assembly in 2019, and his public criticism of India for abolishing the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir). Hence, we understand the reasons for the Indian rejection of Turkish influence in Afghanistan, even if it was coordinated with its ally Israel, because of Turkish interference in the affairs of the Indian state, and public criticism of its policies.
Therefore, we find that, on the other hand, due to the Turkish stance against India’s policies, Indian Prime Minister “Narendra Modi” canceled a trip that was scheduled for him to Turkey in 2019.
Moreover, a part from the Indian dispute with Turkey over the Kashmir issue, Pakistan’s relations as well as a strategic competitor to India with Turkey, as well as (Pakistan’s rejection of the Abrahamic peace in the Israeli concept and its public criticism in favor of Turkey, as a security partner and supplier of arms to Pakistan), especially After Pakistan’s support for the Turkish intervention in “Libya and Azerbaijan”, and with (Pakistan’s desire to obtain a deal from Turkish drones, which increased India’s concerns about this close and joint security and military relationship between Pakistan and Turkey) in the face of Indian policies.
As well as the Indian dispute with Turkey for its support for Pakistan’s membership in the (Nuclear Suppliers Group with Turkey’s opposition by India’s membership in the organization at the request of Pakistan as a security ally of Turkey).
Therefore, in response from India to this growing threat from the joint security coordination between Turkey and Pakistan, (New Delhi turned to the eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, especially the United Arab Emirates to support agreements of political normalization and the Israeli Abrahamic peace), according to what Israel is trying to promote. This new term is used in the region to encourage its countries to sign peace agreements with Israel, in order to counter Turkish influence through (Indian cooperation with Turkey’s main opponents, namely: Greece and the UAE), and to encourage their policies against Turkey.
Hence, we find (Indian support for Greece and the United Arab Emirates in the eastern Mediterranean region against “Turkish naval boat diplomacy”). New Delhi and Athens have also intensified their military coordination and cooperation to confront Turkish moves in the eastern Mediterranean.
In July 2021, (Greece and India) conducted a naval maneuver in the eastern Mediterranean against Turkey, in order to confirm (Indian support for Greece in the face of Turkish ambitions in the eastern Mediterranean), which is called “Indian maritime solidarity with Greece and the UAE in the face of Turkish naval ambitions” in the eastern Mediterranean.
Hence, we understand the reason for (the UAE’s inclusion of India in its camp as allies of Tel Aviv and Israel’s drinks of the Abrahamic peace), especially with Pakistan approaching Turkey, who reject the Abrahamic alliance announced between Israel, the Emirates and India, as well as the possibility of other countries entering the Middle East.
The new strategic consensus between (New Delhi and Abu Dhabi revolves around combating Islamic extremism and spreading the values and spirit of the Abrahamic Israeli peace in the face of Turkey and Pakistan), defending the sovereignty of their two countries, repelling the increasing influence of the Islamic political system led by Turkey, and undermining the (new Abrahamic peace efforts).
And in confirmation of joint security coordination and cooperation to spread and confirm (the Abrahamic alliance between India, the Emirates and Israel in the face of Turkey that rejects it), we find the UAE’s invitation to India to attend (the meeting of foreign ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Abu Dhabi for the first time in 2019), and in the same year, it was the UAE’s granted “Narendra Modi” as well received the “Prize of Zayed Honor”, which is the highest civilian honor in the UAE, despite international outcry over his government’s campaign in Kashmir.
In December 2020, for the first time ever, (Indian Army Commander General “MM. Naravani” visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE), as an attempt to establish (security arrangements that include joint military exercises and security and intelligence partnerships between India, the UAE and its partners in the Gulf). It is understood from this Indian step that (its support for the Abrahamic peace policies led by Israel and the United States of America with the help of the Emirates in the region).
Based on Naravani’s visit to the UAE, India participated in air exercises hosted by the UAE in March 2021, alongside air forces from Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, as a joint Emirati-Saudi-Gulf attempt to (integrate India into the heart of the joint security arrangements in the Arabian Gulf to counter Turkish influence and penetration).
Hence, according to my personal and analytical point of view in this regard, which stems from my understanding of the logic of the Israeli strategic and military thinking for its presence in Afghanistan through Turkey, this can be understood and explained through that (the Israeli desire to move from political and economic relations to security coordination and defense and intelligence cooperation with various countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, even if it is indirectly through the presence in Afghanistan from the Turkish gate), and perhaps to collect more Israeli intelligence information about Afghanistan, as well as to monitor the movements and movements of Tehran directly confronting it, if Israel achieves this inside Afghanistan through “Israeli security coordination with Turkey inside Kabul”, this may (provide a broader movement space for Israel in an important circle that has an impact in the Middle East, and may make Israel an active part, according to the Israeli planning to try to integrate it in the future in the issues of security and defense coordination with the Arab world and Islamic), thus providing it with a broader regional role in the context of competition between regional powers over the region’s breadth, as Israel seeks through For its presence inside Afghanistan through (its intelligence coordination with Turkey, perhaps to invest it in order to integrate into the economies of the region, and to become a legitimate party in the paths of the network of relations and balances of power within the Middle East and the countries of the Arab Gulf).
Fourth: Analyzing the possibility of Israel’s game in the future to form (a new joint Israeli-Arab security umbrella as an alternative to the joint Arab defense agreement) to protect against the threat of terrorism and confront terrorist organizations after the Taliban rule, focusing on (analyzing the role of the United Arab Emirates in the success of the Israeli security alliance in region)
The Egyptian researcher was following the most prominent and dangerous Israeli analyzes after the Taliban movement took control of “Kabul”, and it consisted in asking this prominent question, which is:
“Can Israel start a new and comprehensive regional security dialogue for all in the region and the Arab world, mainly after the “Taliban” took control of the political power in Afghanistan, in a way that supports the US regional strategy that aims to achieve balance with Iran?”
Here, we find that the common American-Israeli fear, is that the growing threat of the terrorist organization of “ISIS” and the other terrorist militias in Afghanistan and on its borders who may create a (joint security integration and coordination between the countries of the region with Iran), known as: (Iranian integration with regional structures in the region to try to integrate them), which could create opportunities to reduce Arab-Iranian tensions in the Persian Gulf at Israel’s expense, including: (threatening basic American and Israeli interests).
Through the Egyptian researcher’s tracking of a number of Israeli intelligence and military sites to determine the degree of their analysis and understanding of the situation, specifically after the Taliban’s takeover, and the same Israeli fear of the spread of the danger of terrorism, militias and extremist terrorist movements and their threat to the security of the Hebrew state, my research and academic analysis came, as follows:
The United States of America has prepared well for attempts to integrate Israel into the heart of the same Arab regional security umbrella, and perhaps (the political or Abrahamic normalization agreements and the Israeli-Gulf peace, especially with the United Arab Emirates, is a series of American and Israeli attempts themselves, to integrate Israel in the future into the Arab circle security), despite the expected Arab and regional reservations.
Hence, Israel is trying to exploit the situation of the control of the Taliban and its militias, and the fear of the spread of a series of terrorist operations in the region and on Israel’s borders to make (security partnerships and alliances with the countries of the region to confront any future dangers), considering that this is the appropriate alternative or entrance to the idea choice for Israel’s proposal with the help of its first ally, Washington, to activate security and intelligence partnerships on the countries of the region, to form that “joint Arab-Israeli security alliance under the pretext of protecting the region surrounding Israel from the danger of ISIS terrorism and armed militias”.
Perhaps the most prominent sudden development that occurred in the file of the Palestinian-Israeli settlement and negotiations project, which has been frozen for many years, is those (American attempts to revive it again, despite the immaturity of the political conditions surrounding the activation of this thorny and complex file), as a suitable main entrance for the Hebrew state and the United States of America. In order to (present the security cooperation or the security alliance between Israel and the Arabs, in light of the common security and intelligence challenges facing them all from the fear of the spread of terrorist movements and operations in those countries surrounding Israel), and their impact on the security of Tel Aviv itself.
We find here that the US administration of President Joe Biden had given the green light to a high-level security and political delegation from Washington to head to the region, and try to hold meetings with the Arab, Palestinian and Israeli sides to test the waters on the possibility of moving the negotiations file and reviving the settlement project again. Additionally, the establishment of (an expanded security alliance between the Israelis and the Palestinians themselves and the Arabs). Therefore, the American delegation headed to the region at the end of July 2021, and its first trip landed in Egypt, accompanied by holding meetings with Egyptian security and political authorities to discuss how to put the first step of the settlement project back on track, and bring the views closer to reaching a common point that helps break the stalemate. In this file, and then (discussing the file of common security challenges between Tel Aviv and the Arabs after responding to a minimum of those Palestinian and Arab demands in the face of Israel).
We find that the American delegation also headed to the Jordanian capital, Amman, as well as to Jerusalem, expressing that if the conditions matured, it might hold meetings with Palestinian President “Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen” inside the district headquarters in the “city of Ramallah in the West Bank”, there are intensive contacts from the American side with (Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, Israel), to prepare and set the initial outlines for any American move in this thorny file related to sharing the Israeli settlement with the Palestinians, to ensure its success and to obtain the support and approval of all parties and to start from the last point At that point, negotiations were concluded, the last of which was at the end of 2014. The Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations have been suspended since April 2014, for several reasons, including: (Israel’s refusal to release former detainees and halt settlements). The US administration here began to move “from the stage of rhetoric to actions”, especially after (Washington’s decision to resume financial aid to Palestinian refugees).
From my analytical point of view, both Washington and Tel Aviv are planning a project to “integrate the Israeli state into the internal affairs and Arab regional security after making certain efforts at the point of settlement of the course of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict”, and this is what the US administration has stated several times under the leadership of “Biden and Trump”. On the common security challenges facing the entity of Israel and the Arabs due to the stalemate in the peace negotiations between the two parties.
The Israeli strategic thought in this regard is clear and does not know any ambiguity, but the question posed is: “the arrangement of its dealings with the region is based on this new security logic”, and it is also trying to adapt the American perception to make American policy if it does not stand in support of such a strategy at least avoid rejection. There is no doubt that the Israeli policy proceeds with real awareness, based on “not to rush in its steps, not to rush after achieving its goals, and to wait for the right moment when the situation becomes ripe to advance the wheel of development”. In fact, the observer of Zionist diplomacy – and not Israeli policy – notes that it was prepared for the diplomacy of the Jewish state in this regard from a far-sightedness when it worked to transform the Arab national system into multiple internal systems, even in the economic sphere.
Israel’s future strategy revolves around two logics, both of which complement the other: the first: paralyzing the dangers it faces, and the second: working to achieve its Zionist goals, not in the sense set by the early Zionist fathers, but in the sense imposed by contemporary reality, which is “the security challenges facing the Hebrew state, and the flexibility that may entail with the Arab and Palestinian side to obtain what Israel aims to protect its borders and security”.
What caught the Egyptian researcher with great interest are the statements of Palestinian President “Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen”, published on Tuesday, December 30, 2018, when he spoke about:
“Security cooperation between Palestine and Israel is described as a Palestinian “national interest”, regardless of the Israeli behavior towards the Palestinians”
We find that the call of the Israeli Minister of Defense “Benny Gantz” on Tuesday, August 25, 2020, is the first with the UAE Minister of State for Defense Affairs “Mohammed bin Ahmed Al-Bawardi”, focused on:
“The need to advance security cooperation between the two countries”
The Hebrew “Yedioth Ahronoth Newspaper” published a statement by Israeli Defense Minister “Gantz”, in which he said that he spoke with the emirati minister about “the need to advance the normalization agreement that establishes, including: security relations between the two countries and the region”. Which is now paving the way for a more formal and public security relationship. We find that “the new Israeli-Gulf alliance can create advanced early warning systems against Iranian missiles, and it can create the conditions for implementing a connected command and control network for missile defense and naval operations in the Red Sea, the northern Indian Ocean and the Arabian Gulf. It also allows for a joint use of military technology and a regular exchange of information”.
According to the same Israeli future analysis, (Abu Dhabi could benefit greatly from increased security cooperation with Israel. For example, the Emiratis could request Israeli assistance in protecting the country’s critical infrastructure, including: oil and water desalination facilities, power stations and airports and sea ports). The Israeli missile defense system “Iron Dome” can also represent an addition in this regard. There were already some indications that the UAE might buy the (Iron Dome system) in the future.
According to the same Emirati future analysis, (the UAE can also benefit from Israeli support in the “fields of cyber security and intelligence,” and the Israelis had already supported the UAE for some time in this field, even before the normalization agreement), several Israeli companies, such as: “Aronatex” By providing Emiratis with products and services to enhance their intelligence and electronic capabilities. It is said that Emirati companies, such as: “DarkMatter”, brought in former Israeli army cyber experts from the (army’s 8200 secret unit) to work in the UAE.
Israel will also benefit from closer security relations with the Emirates, which are located in the Gulf near the southern flank of Iran, and thus the Emirates can provide a foothold for Israel to monitor and spy on Iran. What (confirms this joint step for security cooperation between Israel and the United Arab Emirates), is what was reported by several joint security intelligence reports between the two parties, according to which:
“The UAE and Israel are planning to develop a joint spy base on the Yemeni island of Socotra overlooking the Arabian Sea”
Regardless of the veracity of these reports, the UAE’s proximity to Iran (as well as the large Iranian population in Dubai) could provide Israel with access to Emirati intelligence about Iran and its regional activities.
Moreover, by establishing official relations with the Emirates, (it will become easier for Israel to coordinate regional security affairs with Saudi Arabia), even in the absence of official relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv.
On the other hand, the Emiratis can provide tacit support to Israel in the (Eastern Mediterranean region) that is increasingly important to Israel’s security. Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv are likely to cooperate closely with (Greece, Cyprus) and other members of the European Union in taking a strong stand against Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions.
The Horn of Africa region could also become a theater for increased Emirati-Israeli cooperation. For example, we find that countries, like: (Socotra, Puntland, Eritrea) are areas where “the UAE could facilitate a small Israeli presence to monitor potential hostile developments”, according to former US Defense Department officials in published statements, stating:
“Israel knows that most of these Arab regimes do not represent the people, which means that once they fall, the weapons will be in the wrong hands”
But on the other hand, the (increasingly complex dynamics in the UAE’s relationship with Syria and Iraq may complicate a closer security partnership with Israel), so Israel is now planning to help the UAE currently, according to the same Israeli security perception to reintegrate Damascus into Arab diplomacy, while targeting Israel regularly organizes Iranian-backed militias loyal to President “Bashar Al-Assad” in Syria to achieve Israel’s interests.
The same Israeli security thinking may apply to Iraq (considering the Iraqi state is an important regional balance area in the region that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are trying to return to the sphere of influence of the Egyptian, Saudi and Emirati bloc), and here, according to what the Israelis themselves analyze, (the Emirates need to be careful not to appear overtly supportive of potential future Israeli military strikes against Iranian-sponsored groups given Abu Dhabi’s relations with the governments in Damascus and Baghdad).
Here, we find that through this comprehensive previous analysis of the Egyptian researcher, Israel, with the help of its American ally and their Gulf partners in the Middle East, especially the United Arab Emirates, or regionally in the Asian region, with the help of “India and the State of Bhutan”, (Israel is trying to encircle and protect the network its regional and international interests to protect its areas of influence with the help of the United States of America), which can explain to us all the American-Israeli moves in the Gulf and Asian region itself to form that (the joint security umbrella between Israel and the Arabs and a number of Asian countries to protect Israel’s security, its borders, and the areas of its regional and international outlets, whether from Middle East or Asia), which may explain to us the reasons for this Israeli insistence on being among all those parties internationally and regionally to make partnerships and peace agreements and political normalization with them, as the researcher analyzed in the previous manner.
ISIS-K, Talc, Lithium and the narrative of ongoing jihadi terrorism in Afghanistan
Chinese and Russian efforts are underway to strengthen the Taliban government economically and militarily, along with legitimacy and international recognition. In return, Pakistan is trying to disrupt the Taliban government’s relations with Iran and Tajikistan, as well as with China and Russia. Subsequent to the fall of the previous republican government, following Russia and China, Iran is a major supporter of the Taliban.
Iran plays a significant role in a new intelligence surge launched by major regional players in Afghanistan, which includes ISIS-K campaign against the Taliban government in country. Although Taliban have been able to crush, ISIS-K in several provinces of Afghanistan, but the group was able to mobilize a bunch of other terrorist organizations such as Turkistan Islamic Party, Khetabat Iman Ul Bekhari, Khetabat ultauhied Waljihad, Islamic Jihad Union, Jamaat Ansarullah and East Turkistan Islamic Movement, and The Army of Justice. According to sources on the ground, the group has also established contacts with the resistance front led by Ahmad Massoud to fight Taliban.
Seemingly, the group joined forces with the Resistance Front in northern part of the country to downfall the Taliban particularly in northern Afghanistan. In addition to defeating the Taliban in the central and southern provinces of Afghanistan, the group has started a sectarian war between the Sunnis and Shiites, which has partly soured relations between the Afghan Taliban and Iran. The group had the support of Pakistan as well as other regional countries and beyond. Furthermore, Lashkar-e-Taiba fighters entered Afghanistan with the help of the Pakistani army, joining the fight between Sunni and Shia in Afghanistan. Efforts are underway to start a civil war in the country. According to the information, ISIS militants have been mostly funded and financed by the Saudi government, as well as other Salafi Gulf States to minimize and even eradicate Shiites in the region.
In accordance with some sources, additional costs are being borne by the United States and Great Britain. Beside all such financial support, Islamic State (ISIS-K) militants also obtain some funding and thrive through mining and establishing business firms throughout the region.
Let us say, Islamic State militants relatively control the oil reserves in Iraq and they illegally extract it, meantime they have hands on talc and other precious stones in Afghanistan to cover their propaganda campaign expenses. ISIS-K uses the same tactics applied by Taliban during the US occupation; Taliban began illegal mining in Afghanistan to finance their activities in order to wage the war against the US aggression. During the Taliban’s resistance, Taliban fighters had also a strong financial support from Pakistan, and the Pakistani government accordingly received that financial sustenance from other countries namely western and the Arab world. However, the Taliban forcibly mined Afghanistan’s lapis lazuli and smuggled it to Pakistan. Under the auspices of the Pakistani government, the gems were shipped to the United States and the European countries. In return, the Taliban were paid in cash. Likewise, the Taliban, ISIS chose the same path, and made the most of money via mining in Afghanistan.
Subsequently, the ISIS group has chosen Nangarhar province as its stronghold in Afghanistan, since it has mineral deposits of talc, chromite, marble and other precious and rare earth minerals in addition, the group is also trying to control smuggling routes, to launch cross border terrorism.
Consequently, ISIS-K endeavors to bring Ghazni province under its control, since a huge Lithium, mine exists in the province. The group is well aware of its preciousness in the world market because the element is mainly used by automotive industries to produce batteries for electric cars.
The anti-corruption network of the former Afghan government reported that the Taliban and the Islamic State together received about 46 million in 2016 thru illegal mining from a single district of Nangarhar province. That is why ISIS has spent millions of dollars in Afghanistan because of holding its campaign and propaganda, allegedly, most of which came from mining.
Furthermore, district governors have been appointed by ISIS for Afghanistan’s 387 major districts, with a monthly salary of up to 80,000 Afghanis. This is a huge financial burden for the Islamic State, but the Islamic State group’s representatives say that they stick to their words, so that everyone will be paid on time. The ISIS group needs a large amount of financial support to achieve its major goals, but the group is not overstrained financially, because it receives a chockfull financial support.
Conversely, Iran is trying to increase the number of Shiite orientated proxies in the world and especially in Afghanistan to eliminate ISIS-K in return; the Saudi and other Gulf Sates want to prevent it. Therefore, they use ISIS and other associates of the group to counter Iran’s ambitious trans-national agenda; ISIS-K takes advantage of having been provided with huge financial support by anti-Iran camp.
Iran has repeatedly tried to spread Shia religion around the world, most notably at Mustafa International School in Bamko, the capital of Mali in Africa. There have been several attempts by the Iranian government to convert the students to Shi’ism, an issue that has become the topic of international debate supported by Saudi Arabia. Finally, all of these events are currently having a direct and indirect impact on Afghanistan and the country’s ongoing security crisis, which will affect the entire region at the end.
The means to manage cyberspace and the duty of security
Over and above the ethical concepts regarding the near future, it is also good to focus on the present. Governments are required to protect their national resources and infrastructure against foreign and domestic threats, to safeguard the stability and centrality of human beings and political systems and to ensure modern services for civilians. Suffice it to recall the chaos that arose some time ago in the Lazio region for the well-known health issues.
Governments must play a key role in developing and leading the local ecosystems, but this national effort must involve many other stakeholders: local businesses, entrepreneurs, multinational companies, local and foreign investors, State agencies, Ministries and academics, people in education, professional institutions and the public at large.
Furthermore, cybersecurity is a national opportunity for developing the local economy and for positioning any country in the international arena as a safe place to establish and develop economic relations between States and companies. It is also important as a regional cyber hub.
Cyber strategy therefore consists in prioritising operational cyber activities with a view to optimising and monitoring the overdevelopment of cyber intelligence that could one day take such turns as to be ungovernable.
This is the reason why investment in technology, local capacity building and resource allocation and concentration are required. This means providing strategic advisory services to government agencies that are seeking to advance cyber security at a strategic and operational level.
It is therefore necessary to work with governments to develop their strategic and operational capabilities in cybersecurity, either at the national or sectoral level, as well as providing comprehensive cyber projects that combine cyber defence and the development of a local cyber ecosystem, based on the models tried and tested by various countries around the world, such as the People’s Republic of China, Israel, the United States of America, etc.
There is a need to specialise in setting up Cyber Units and Cyber Centres (SOC & Fusion Centres) and in developing Cyber Eco-Systems and Cyber Strategies. This means providing various cyber solutions, services and know-how to companies in various sectors, such as financial, industrial, energy, health, technology and many other sectors.
Stable OT (operational technology) security services and strategic advice to companies in the fields of energy, manufacturing, security, medicine, transport, critical infrastructure and many others create the prerequisites for defending cyberspace. As well as helping OT-based organisations integrate cybersecurity into their processes and products. Design, develop and deliver advanced technologies and solutions to protect critical assets in OT environments, such as ICS, SCADA, IIoT, PLC, etc.
In this regard there is a basic need for creating professional IT schools around the world that teach the meaning of cyberspace, and not just how to use Word and other simple Office programs.
The expansion and creation of universities and institutes of cyber knowledge is a starting point from which partnerships are launched with organisations seeking to create their own cyber schools or with academic or educational organisations offering cyber training to their students.
Providing comprehensive solutions for IT schools, enables the training of IT professionals and new recruits in all IT roles, so that hackers do not remain the sole repository of digital truth. Advanced training is a solid starting point for organisations seeking to train their IT professionals. Professionals who can manage and master schemes such as Cyber Defender, Cyber Warrior, Cyber Manager, SOC Analyst, Digital Forensics, Basic Training and many others, including through the use of simulation.
Leading the creation and development of the high-level cybersecurity ecosystem is a duty of States towards the citizens who elect their leaders. The same holds true for seeking and employing highly experienced experts in the various security subject matters, including strategic cyber defence, cyber warfare, cyber intelligence, cyber research and development and cyber strategy, as well as defining training policies for these branches of operation.
Having examined the prerequisites for protecting cyberspace, it is worth addressing the structure of some of the risks faced by institutional network systems.
One of the most typical operations made by hackers relates to the use of client/server technology to combine several computers as a platform to launch DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) attacks against one or more targets, thus exponentially increasing damage.
A malicious user normally uses a stolen account to install the DDoS master programme on a computer. The master programme will communicate with a large number of agents at any given time and the agent programmes have been installed on many computers in the network. The agent launches an attack when it receives an instruction. Using client/server technology, the master control programme can activate hundreds of agent programmes in a matter of seconds.
A DDoS uses a group of controlled machines to launch an attack on a computer, be it server or client. It is so fast and hard to prevent that is therefore more destructive. If we consider that in the past network administrators could adopt the method of filtering IP addresses against DDoS, it becomes more difficult to prevent such actions today. How can measures be taken to respond effectively?
If the user is under attack, defence will be very limited. If there is a catastrophic attack with a large amount of traffic pouring onto the unprepared user, it will very likely that the network will be paralysed before the user can recover. Users, however, can still take the opportunity to seek defence.
Hackers usually launch attacks through many fake IP addresses. At that juncture, if users can distinguish which IPs are real and which are fake – and hence understand from which network segments these IPs come – they can ask the network administrator to change them. Firstly, the PCs should be turned off to try to eliminate the attack. If it is found that these IP addresses are coming from outside rather than from the company’s internal IP, a temporary investigation method can be used to filter these IP addresses on the server or router.
The solution would be to discover the route through which the attackers pass and block them. If hackers launch attacks from certain ports, users can block these ports to prevent intrusion. After the exit port is closed, all computers cannot access the Internet.
A more complex method consists in filtering the Internet Control Message Protocol (ICMP), a service protocol for packet networks transmitting information regarding malfunctioning, monitoring and control information or messages between the various components of a computer network. Although it cannot completely eliminate the intrusion during the attack, filtering the ICMP can effectively prevent the escalation of the aggression and can also reduce the level of constant damage to a certain extent.
The DDoS attack is the most common attack method used by hackers. Some conventional methods of dealing with it are listed below.
1. Filter all RFC1918 IP addresses. The RFC1918 IP address is the address of the internal network, such as 10.0.0.0, 192.168.0.0, 172.16.0.0, etc. These are not fixed IP addresses of a particular network segment, but confidential local IP addresses within the Internet, which should be filtered out. This method serves to filter out a large number of fake internal IPs during an attack, and can also mitigate DDoS attacks.
2. Use many PCs to resist hacker attacks. This is an ideal response phase, if the user has sufficient ability and resources to enable a defence against hackers who attack and continue to access and take over resources. Before the user is fatally attacked, the hacker has little means to control many PCs. This method requires considerable investment and most of the equipment is usually idle, which does not correspond to the actual functioning of the current network of small and medium-sized enterprises.
3. Make full use of network equipment to protect resources. The so-called network equipment refers to load balancing hardware and software such as routers and firewalls, which can effectively protect the network. When the network is attacked, the router is the first to fail, but the other devices have not yet collapsed. The failed router will return to normalcy after being restarted and will restart quickly without any loss. If other servers collapse, their data will be lost and restarting them is a lengthy process. In particular, a company uses load balancing equipment so that when a router is attacked and crashes, the other will work immediately. This minimizes DDoS attacks.
4. Configure the firewall. The firewall itself can resist DDoS and other attacks. When an attack is discovered, it may be directed to certain sacrificial hosts, which are able to protect the actual host from the attack. The sacrificial hosts may obviously choose to redirect to unimportant hosts or to those having systems with fewer vulnerabilities than some operating systems and with excellent protection against attacks.
5. Filter unnecessary services and ports. Many tools can be used to filter out unnecessary services and ports, i.e. filter out fake IPs on the router. For example, Cisco’s CEF (Cisco Express Forwarding) can compare and filter out Source IP and Routing Table packets. Opening only service ports has become a common practice for many servers. For example, WWW servers open only 80 ports and close all the others or use a blocking strategy on the firewall.
6. Limit SYN/ICMP traffic. The user must configure the maximum SYN/ICMP traffic on the router to limit the maximum bandwidth that SYN/ICMP packets can occupy. Therefore, when there is a large amount of SYN/ICMP traffic exceeding the limit, this means it is not normal network access, but hacking. In the beginning, limiting SYN/ICMP traffic was the best way to prevent DDoS. Although the effect of this method on DDoS is currently not widely used, it can still play a certain role.
7. Scan regularly. Existing network master nodes should be scanned regularly, checked for security vulnerabilities and new vulnerabilities cleaned up promptly. Computers on backbone nodes are the best locations for hackers to use because they have higher bandwidth. It is therefore very important to strengthen the security of these hosts. Furthermore, all computers connected to the major nodes of the network are server-level computers. Hence regular scanning for vulnerabilities becomes even more important.
8. Check the source of the visitor. Use suitable software to check whether the visitor’s IP address is true. This should be done by reverse-searching the router: if it is fake, it will be blocked. As said above, many hacker attacks often use fake IP addresses to confuse users and it is hard to find out from where they come. Therefore, for example, the use of Unicast Reverse Path Forwarding can reduce the occurrence of fake IP addresses and help improve network security.
As seen above, we need experts who know more than hackers, and this is the duty that States and governments have towards their institutions, but primarily towards their citizens.
The visit of the head of Israeli Mossad intelligence to Bahrain
The visit of the UAE Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed to Damascus on Tuesday, November 9, 2021 and the meeting with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, sparked a great controversy that began from the moment it was announced, which was highlighted by Western analyzes mainly from outside the region, that it comes for a (comprehensive Arab reassessment of the reality of the relationship with Syria and its importance in combating terrorism in the region, and the importance of the current Syrian reality in the calculations of Arab and Gulf national security, primarily towards Iran, and breaking the American “Caesar Law” towards imposing an economic blockade on Syria), and various analyzes and speculations about the future of these have increased. The Emirati step, its implications and dimensions in the Arab and Gulf relations towards the Syrian regime, and whether it represents one of the indicators of the transition to another new phase of political action towards opening up to Damascus, and the return of Syria to its regional and international role. Especially with the clarification of the “Emirati-Syrian coordination” some time before that visit to arrange the rapprochement between the two sides, which became clear by the announcement of the contact between the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi (Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and President Bashar Al-Assad), as well as an official invitation to Syria to participate in the “International Expo Exhibition In Dubai” and then my meeting with the Syrian and Emirates oil ministers in Moscow.
But what stopped me in that Emirates visit, was perhaps other events that were not addressed during those analyzes, which caught my attention analytically and academically, and the most different of them was (I was alerted by a foreign researcher during my commentary on the same analysis, that the Emirates move is mainly in the interest of Tehran the Iranian regime, not to stifle and besiege Iran in its areas of influence and its known role in Syria). Despite the strangeness of this analysis, I occupied my mind with another matter to respond to it, regarding: (the significance of the visit of the head of the Israeli Mossad to Bahrain, and the visit of Emirates officials to Tel Aviv, and what is even clearer to the public is the organization of joint naval exercises in the Red Sea with the joint Israeli naval forces with Bahrain and the UAE), at the same time as the aforementioned visit.
Accordingly, my analysis mainly focuses on whether that visit took place through (arranging and coordinating with Tel Aviv to curb Iran in Syria and the region, by attracting Syria to the Arab League and collective Arab action again), and the Gulf rejectionist and Arab reservations towards the step of rapprochement. The Syrian-Iranian, or did I aim for a clearer Gulf rapprochement with Iran through rapprochement with Syria, as I went to a number of mainly Western analyzes, which I received. From here, the Egyptian researcher will analyze all the following elements:
Analyzing the implications of the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister (Bin Zayed) to Syria on November 9, 2021.
And its relationship to the “joint naval maneuvers” between (Israel, the UAE and Bahrain) in the Red Sea on November 10, 2021 on the Iranian existence at Syria
The visit of (the head of the Israeli Mossad intelligence service to Bahrain) at the time of the naval joint maneuvers with Israel in the Red Sea, with (the visit of the UAE Air Force commander to Israel).
Then, finally, analyzing the impacts of the Israeli Mossad intelligence moves in the Red Sea on its rapprochement with the USA in the face of (China, Russia and Iran).
To answer those questions, it is necessary to verify and respond to number of inquires and some other different analyses, such as:
The UAE’s motives for taking such a step of rapprochement with Syria, through the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister “Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed” to Damascus on Tuesday, November 9, 2021, and the meeting with Syrian President “Bashar Al-Assad”.
Rather, will this Emirates step (encourage the rest of the Arab countries to follow the Emirates footsteps) and open up to the Syrian regime?
What is the fate of the “Syrian opposition to the Emirati-Syrian rapprochement”, and is this Emirates move aimed at weakening the Syrian opposition track, especially the Syrians opposing the regime of President “Bashar Al-Assad” abroad?
Then, it will remain to analyze (the Syrian opposition’s options if more Arab countries open up to the Al-Assad’s regime).
Will there be a (Syrian-Emirati consensus) towards the step of solving the (return of Syrian refugees from abroad and the settlement of their situation with the current Syrian regime)?
Finally, the question arises, regarding: (the impact of the intensity of American and international criticism of the UAE’s step of rapprochement with the Syrian regime and President “Bashar Al-Assad” on the completion of the remaining Arab steps seeking to integrate and return Syria once more to its membership in the League of Arab States)?
In fact, the most dangerous and important analysis for me remains completely analytical, namely: (What was raised about the fact that the UAE obtained the green light from the United States of America itself and from the Israeli side before the visit of the UAE Foreign Minister “Bin Zayed” to the Emirates, in pursuit of forming (Gulf-UAE-Israeli alliance against Iran), and seeking to neutralize the Syrian regime in the face of these Iranian moves as a closely related ally of the Iranians?) Accordingly, we can analyze that, as follows:
Perhaps what reinforces and supports my recent view regarding the “Israeli Gulf mobilization with the help of the UAE and Washington’s support to confront Iran through Syria” is (the joint security coordination between Israel and the Emirati and Bahraini naval forces to conduct joint naval maneuvers in the Red Sea, which lasted for five full days), which began on Wednesday, November 10, 2021, which comes at the same time as the UAE rapprochement with Syria, meaning:
(There are joint security arrangements between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain in the face of Iran through the move of rapprochement with Syria as an ally of Iran)
As I mentioned, the joint naval maneuvers between Israel and the UAE at the same time as the UAE visit confirms (the continuation of joint security coordination between Israel and the UAE), especially to curb and limit Iranian influence. Knowing that the step of joint security coordination between the Emirates and Israel began three years ago, when the naval forces of the Gulf states, mainly the “UAE and Bahrain”, began conducting joint naval maneuvers with the Israeli side, which were the first for them ever with their Israeli counterpart, in cooperation with the forces of the United States of America’s Navy.
We find that the current joint naval maneuvers in the Red Sea with the participation of the UAE and Israel, with the participation of (warships from the Emirates, Bahrain and Israel), in addition to the United States of America, is a “joint Israeli-Gulf assertion” to send a message to the Iranian side, that these naval maneuvers with Israel, aims to:
“Securing the maritime traffic in the face of Iran, and seeking to secure the movement of the straits and maritime navigation in the Red Sea with the help of Israeli security, especially that these joint maritime training operations included training on encirclement and raid tactics”
This was confirmed by the US Naval Forces Central Command, in an official statement, to confirm that:
“The Israeli, Emirates, and Bahraini training aims to enhance the ability to work collectively among the forces participating in the maneuvers”
From here, we understand that the step of joint Israeli-Emirati security coordination, and the consequent step of the joint naval maneuvers, came after the signing of the “Abraham Accords” in September 2020, and the normalization of their relations with Israel by the UAE and Bahrain. Since then, it has strengthened the (diplomatic, military, and intelligence relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, as the two most important Gulf countries that share Tel Aviv’s concerns about Iran’s activities in the Red Sea and the region).
The most prominent here, is (the visit of the head of the Israeli intelligence service Mossad in a public visit to Bahrain at the time of the joint naval maneuvers with Israel in the Red Sea, with the commander of the UAE Air Force heading at the same time also on a first-of-its-kind visit to Israel in October 2021).
In general, the (re-opening of the Emirati and Bahraini embassies in Damascus) in December 2018, was considered at that time as (a major change in the Gulf policy towards Syria, and it was among the first indications of a more comprehensive normalization). There is no doubt that these steps came after consulting Saudi Arabia. However, it seems that Saudi Arabia, as usual, is taking a cautious and secretive attitude towards the move of rapprochement with Syria due to its fear of the “Al-Assad regime’s relations with Tehran”.
At the time, the UAE and Bahrain talked about (the geopolitical benefits of rehabilitating the regime of President Bashar Al-Assad). The State of Bahrain confirmed that “the step of integrating Bashar Al-Assad aims to strengthen the Arab role and prevent regional interference in Syrian affairs”.
The most important analytical question for me is whether Abu Dhabi has completely severed its relations with Damascus at all, given (the continued presence of prominent Syrian figures loyal to Damascus living and working in the Emirates).
In general, this (continuous stream of signals emanating from Damascus and other Arab capitals, led by the Emirates for rapprochement with Syria), indicates that the former opponents of the Syrian government have come close to reaching mutually beneficial arrangements with the Syrian government, some of which pledged a few years ago to drop it.
The most important gains for the Syrian regime from that rapprochement with the UAE and the rest of the Arab countries will be (reconstruction contracts for Syria and energy deals), in addition to the markets that will be opened to it if they reconcile with the Arab countries, which may later pave the way for “inclusion of Damascus again and returning its membership in the League of Arab States”, which is of course the most important strategic step for the UAE and the Gulf states, to help Syria to return back to the “Arab House”, and consequently put pressure on it not to rapprochement with Iran, as it is a rival opponent for the UAE and the Gulf states.
In this context, the Syrian capital, Damascus is now hoping for (influential Arab voices to exert international pressure in order to lift the severe sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime), which aims to (punish Syrian officials and Syrian organizations for their alleged involvement in human rights violations).
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