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A Renaissance of Fossil Fuels: Consequences of Europe’s Energy Market Panic

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As the next UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) approaches, calls from the international community to step up the efforts to combat climate change are getting ever louder. While the issue of renewable energy sources has been high on the agenda for most developed economies for quite a while now, the only agent of radical change seems to be some serious crisis—something that would push the energy community out of their comfort zone. This time has seemingly come, with prices for natural gas, coal and electricity hitting record highs in Europe over the past few weeks, and analysts from Europe expecting the factors that drive these prices to persist in the coming weeks.

Many in European political circles would like to believe it is the Russian Gazprom that is ultimately responsible for what has been going on, claiming that its alleged reluctance to supply gas to the European market has sparked the events that caused prices for natural gas to increase fourfold and prices for electricity to double in 2021. However, the Russian company was not in breach of any contracts, nor was it guilty of lowering the transit volumes of gas passing through Ukraine. Besides, hybrid pricing under long-term contracts makes Russian gas significantly cheaper for the consumer as compared to the cost of that coming from the main hubs of the European Union. While it would be hard to argue with the fact that Gazprom is filling its underground gas storage facilities in a fashion slower than does the market on average or that the company hardly books additional gas transit capacity through Ukraine, these factors can only have a marginal effect on the overall cost of energy commodities.

Graph 1. Natural Gas Prices in 2017–2021 (USD/MMBtu)

Source: Thomson Reuters

Gas Prices: In Circumvention of the Rules?

The high cost of gas in Europe became apparent early in 2021 as European countries were exhausting their gas reserves after the relatively cold winter of 2020/2021. At the same time, industries in Europe, as well as the economic activity in a broader sense, were recovering from the recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, which translated into an increasing demand for gas. Every month, it became ever more obvious that the injection of natural gas into underground gas storage facilities (UGS) was occurring slower than expected. From August to September 2021, all hopes for the situation to return to normal came to evaporate, as the filling level of UGS facilities was an average of 20 points lower than over the past five years.

Against this background, the public in Europe began to pay careful attention to Gazprom’s moves on the European market, since most of its gas storage facilities in the EU (approximately totaling 12 billion cubic meters, of which some 6.5 billion are located in Germany) were being filled up significantly slower than the European average. The already slow gas injection was aggravated by a fire that occurred at the Urengoy Condensate Treatment Plant, forcing the Russian gas monopoly to temporarily cut production. Nonetheless, Gazprom spokespeople assured the public that the work to fill storage facilities in Russia—approximately 73 billion cubic meters in total—continued in accordance with the plan with no setbacks expected, although they never provided any specific data on the injection rate.

These events led some MEPs to file an official request for the European Commission to investigate possible manipulations on the gas market by Gazprom. First of all, the misunderstanding owes to Gazprom’s reluctance to increase production. Export forecasts for 2021 have not changed throughout the year, hovering around at 175–183 billion cubic meters per year, whereas Gazprom’s 2021 budget assumed an average price of $170 per 1,000 cubic square meters, which is exactly $100 per 1,000 cubic square meters higher than is envisioned in the current forecast of the average annual export price, which has now been revised three times. However, it would be a mistake to squarely place the blame for the spike in gas prices over January–September 2021 on Gazprom’s shoulders, since its influence on the LNG market, a principal driving force to impact the situation with gas shortage in Europe, was rather negligible.

It is worth noting that the global LNG supply did not decrease as compared to the previous year: while 274 million tons were supplied in January–September 2020, the same period in 2021 witnessed a rise up to some 290 million tons. While the global economy is recovering to see the demand for LNG grow, gas disruptions in Australia, Malaysia, Peru and Oman, alongside the continued downtime of the Snøhvit LNG export terminal in northern Norway, coupled with the drop in production and reduced export volumes in Nigeria and Trinidad and Tobago, have led people to believe that there is a shortage of LNG on the market, realizing that consumers in Europe and Asia may be in direct competition. All this resulted in higher LNG prices, despite the fact that prices are usually lower in summer as compared to the average level in winter.

As the Wind Blows…

While the price of natural gas continues to rise, the nations of Northwest Europe have been facing another challenge—namely, the unpredictability of the wind. Countries like the UK, where up to a third of electricity can be generated by wind farms (depending on weather conditions), were unprepared for a long period of calm. During the first half of September, the North Sea witnessed a rather rare phenomenon when offshore wind turbines failed to generate even half of the power they typically produce: over a two-week period, power generation was below 6 MWh, in quite a contrast to the usual 10–12 MWh.

The situation with both wind and power generation had returned to normal by mid-September; however, the issue of wind reliability in the long term remains. In the meantime, the EU is looking to increase the share of wind energy in its energy matrix up to 20 per cent by 2050. Its overall wind power capacity took a massive hit in the wake of Brexit, as the UK’s 11,000 turbines provided more than 24 GW of power—the country has long been a European frontrunner in terms of wind farm penetration into the domestic market. Many countries have followed in the Britain’s footsteps, with France having set out to build its first offshore wind platform, Spain having published a new wind energy strategy and Greece intending to do the same soon. However, no one has a convincing answer to the question, “What will happen if the wind no longer blows?”

Where possible, nuclear power is the easiest—as well as cheapest—solution. As the largest nuclear power in the EU, France would have endured the market panic over electricity prices with fewer losses if four of its nuclear reactors (with a total capacity of 4.2 GW) had not been undergoing scheduled repairs. Where Europe fell short, South Korea and Japan can succeed. Excessively high LNG prices forced South Korea to restore some of its nuclear reactor production capacity. Japan has made progress in this regard during the Olympic Games, when the Kansai nuclear power plant helped cover additional electricity needs. Japan’s reluctance to buy expensive LNG shipments on the spot market is one of the reasons why the country already has nine nuclear reactors operating.

Coal: Old but Gold

The reinstallation of unused nuclear facilities was shadowed by the revival of old coal-fired power plants. The UK, seeking to shut down all coal-fired power plants by 2024, was forced to restart some of its generating capacity. Less than a year has passed since wind turbines became the main electricity source in Germany—yet, by the autumn of 2021, the EU’s biggest economy had to see another renaissance of the coal as electricity generation at coal plants has more than doubled since 2020, reaching an average of 8.5 GWh in the course of September. Not only will coal serve as Germany’s main energy source in 2021, but it will also retain its competitive edge over gas, which costs 10 euro per MWh more.

The first step towards a gradual increase in coal prices appeared to be China’s embargo on the Australian coal while Australia and Indonesia have been leading suppliers of coal to China since November 2020. The ongoing embargo has significantly increased the cost of coal for Chinese importers as they need to build relationships from scratch and with more remote countries. At the same time, Australia’s export flows have redrawn the map of Asia in terms of market share. Mining in China, however, continues to suffer due to government involvement aimed at combating unfair competition. For example, a mandatory two-month inspection period was established in the country’s largest coal-mining province. Domestic coal prices then doubled: in mid-September, futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were slightly below CNY1000 ($160) per ton.

Still, coal received a boost following unprecedentedly high prices for natural gas. Once global trade in the commodity fell sharply in 2020, many had written coal off, but it is enjoying renewed interest in countries that have traditionally been able to switch from one hydrocarbon feedstock to another (Germany is precisely such a state in Europe). Therefore, coal imports to Europe in August 2021 returned to pre-pandemic levels (meaning the levels of Autumn 2019, some 12 million tons per month) and continued to grow later in September. This growing demand drove up the prices, seeing them double over mere four months to reach a never-before-seen $185/t.

Although it might seem to be a temporary surge doomed to crash, the annual average Rotterdam Coal Futures for 2022 (also called API2) fluctuates in the range of $130–140/t. We can thus expect prices to remain high—and not just for a one month. Besides, coal remains competitive as compared to gas, although its use entails higher carbon costs (carbon emissions are taxed under EU legislation). With carbon trading at an unprecedented level of EUR61–62/t as well as coal, the latter is still more profitable than natural gas, even with these added costs. The relatively simple combination of weak power generation from renewable energy sources and the insufficient supply of natural gas may well have brought the two most unpopular segments of the European energy sector—nuclear and coal—to the fore.

Graph 2. Average Monthly Electricity Cost in Europe (EUR/MWh).

Source: Thomson Reuters

As we look ahead, it is worth noting that electricity prices would likely decline in the end, at least when the situation with wind energy is sorted out, as wind forecasts for the North Sea in October are largely positive. French nuclear power plants returning to operation and the reinstallation of coal-fired power plants will also help alleviate the shortage in energy supply. Nonetheless, natural gas, the main “transition fuel” on the path to a low-carbon economy, will remain at the core of debates. Europe will still compete with Asia for the LNG shipments remaining on the market, although it is unlikely to be willing and able to pay more than its competitors in Asia. There are few factors that could improve the situation in Europe, which will fuel greater interest in Nord Stream 2. The ardor of traders may temporarily be cooled if the requirements of the German regulator, the Federal Network Agency (BnetzA), for granting a license to use the pipeline are met. However, Berlin is unlikely to rush to this decision, unwilling to demonstrate a preferential attitude to business. This is why we will have to wait and hope that the winter of 2021/2022 will come to be mild.

From our partner RIAC

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The Potential of Palestinian Gas and the Role of Regional Powers: From Promise to Action

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Recent progress on the Gaza marine gas field’s development is positive news and highlights the potential for mutually beneficial agreements in the East Mediterranean. The preliminary approval by Israel of the Palestinian field’s development and exploitation is outcome of mediation efforts exerted by Egypt and Jordan that aimed at de-escalation of tensions and building bridges between Palestinians and Israelis. The benefits of the Palestinian field’s development are multifold and range from advancing energy security in Gaza and providing a substantial windfall for the Palestinian economy to improving Israel’s regional standing and attracting investment for the execution of infrastructure projects within the region.

Strained political relations between Israelis and Palestinians, sporadic Israeli support, concerns that revenues would be used to fund terrorism, and low gas prices have been prime reasons that impeded development of the 23-year-old Gaza marine gas field project. The war on Ukraine and the subsequent global energy crisis, as well as the Israel-Lebanon maritime delimitation agreement brought the Gaza marine gas field project to the forefront and accelerated mediation efforts that led to the preliminary approval by Israel for its development. In case a final agreement is reached, the field that contains 1 trillion cubic feet of gas is expected to generate revenues worth approximately $2.5 billion over its 15-year life span.

The Spirit of the Preliminary Deal

According to the preliminary deal, Egypt’s Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) will develop the field and related infrastructure in pursuance with the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in 2021 between the Egyptian state-owned company and the field’s partners namely, the Palestine Investment Fund (PIF) and Consolidated Constructors Company (CCC). The MoU foresees the transportation of Palestinian gas through a 40-mile pipeline to Egyptian LNG facilities for liquefaction and consumption by the Palestinians, Egypt, and third markets. Development of the field is expected to proceed in three phases:  Phase 1 involves extraction of gas from Gaza marine-1, Phase 2 involves construction of the pipeline, and Phase 3 involves the development of Gaza marine-2, a second well closer to Egypt.

The Palestinian Authority will receive gas revenues and the final agreement is expected to be strictly limited in scope prioritizing the exploitation of Gazan gas and leaving outside the issue of recognition between Israel and Hamas. The latter’s tacit approval of the Gaza marine gas field’s development is allegedly outcome of extensive discussions among security officials that favored an Egyptian offer of an economic incentives’ package to Hamas in exchange for a long-term truce (hudna) with Israel. The conversion of the diesel-based Gaza Power Plant to operate on gas produced by the Gaza marine field holds a prime position in the economic incentives’ package. Improvement of living conditions in Gaza for its 2.3 million population is expected to politically benefit Hamas as currently Palestinians experience regular power shortages. In practical terms, Palestinians in Gaza receive an average of 10 hours of electricity per day according to data released by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Overall, development of the Gaza marine gas field would provide Palestinians a domestic low-cost energy source, generate revenues for the Palestinian Authority and help Palestinians transition from diesel toward less carbon-intense fuels.

Palestinian Popular Perceptions

Public perceptions in Gaza have been affected by press reports on American mediation efforts for a normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel on the precondition that certain concessions are given to the Palestinians. Specifically, majority of the Palestinian public in Gaza and the West Bank maintains that the approval by the most right-wing Israeli government to date for the Gaza marine gas field’s development has been part and parcel of the discussions underway for the oncoming Saudi-Israeli normalization.

An opinion poll released on September 13, 2023, by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) reflects this trend. 29 percent in Gaza believes that an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations could improve the chances for reaching Palestinian-Israeli peace. Related to this perception and taking into consideration that 2023 marks the 30th anniversary of the Oslo Accords, Gazans view more positively than the West Bankers the Oslo Agreement. As cited in the PCPSR poll, 40 percent of Gazans oppose the abandonment of the Oslo Accords by the Palestinian Authority.

When it comes to Palestinian popular perceptions on the development of the Gaza marine gas field, these are reportedly divided between optimists and pessimists. According to the first group, the field’s development would give a positive shock to the Gazan economy by means of job creation and full payment of salaries for public sector employees. As known, the Palestinian Authority currently withholds monthly salaries of public employees by almost 25 percent. Optimists also expect that gas prices will lower thus lifting much of the economic burden on households. At the political level, optimists support that the advancement of the Palestinian economy could pave the way for intra-Palestinian reconciliation between rival political leaders.

Pessimists, on the other hand, argue that economic benefits will be minimal as tax on Gazan gas is expected to be imposed simultaneously by Hamas, Israel, and Egypt thus minimizing prospects of low energy cost and improved living conditions. In addition, they advocate that the gap between Palestinian factions will widen rather than reconcile. To this end, pessimists cite the failure of Palestinian factions’ leadership to reconcile during the recent Egyptian Summit of El-Alamein.

Egypt’s Multileveled Mediation

Egypt has been well positioned to broker negotiations between Hamas and Israel, while Jordan used its political leverage over the Palestinian Authority and hosted a meeting to ensure that discussions continued unabated. In fact, Egypt and Jordan have been third parties in the Palestinian-Israeli meetings held in Aqaba and Sharm Al-Sheikh where the development of the Gaza marine gas field was at the heart of discussions, and a roadmap was put forward for de-escalation of tensions in Gaza.

The economic and regional benefits that Egypt will get from the Palestinian-Israeli agreement on the Gaza marine gas field’s development have been key to the success of Egyptian mediation. Despite the unchanged nature of Egypt’s cold peace with Israel, Egypt has appeared decisive to help Israelis and Palestinians pitch a vision to create shared solutions on energy challenges and opportunities with the Gaza marine gas field at the epicenter.

As per the terms of the preliminary agreement, Egyptian state-owned EGAS will take over development operations of the Gaza marine gas field and secure financing for the overall project. Financing constitutes a crucial element for the project’s development and requires political risk insurance as well as certain payment guarantees initially provided by EGAS and at a later stage by financial institutions.

Related development plans, that are likely incorporated in the economic incentives’ package offered to Hamas during discussions in exchange for long-term truce, include the construction of a new port to improve living conditions in Gaza. These plans foresee, among other options, either the construction of an Egyptian port in El-Arish so that cargoes are transported to Gaza through Kerem Shalom border crossing at the junction of Gaza, Israel and Egypt, or the construction of a Palestinian port on the Egyptian part of Gaza’s south border. Both options entail a leading Egyptian role that centers on investing in critical infrastructure to support the Gazan economy.

At the regional level, Egyptian successful mediation has enhanced Cairo’s leadership role with an emphasis on geoeconomics. In fact, Egypt seeks to pursue its strategic objectives in the region through attraction of economic inflows to enhance its national security and through creation of economic interdependencies balancing between competition and cooperation among geopolitical rivals. The Gaza marine gas field development falls under the category of projects that can cement regional economic interdependencies through a right balance between security considerations and economic cooperation.

The Art of Jordan’s Shuttle Diplomacy

It is upon this regional logic that Jordan used existing partnerships to prepare the ground for the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks with initial focus narrowly on the development of the energy-related project in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority’s empowerment. Jordan’s status as an important regional player and mediator between interested parties has been enhanced as a long-awaited win-win initiative has been finally got back to track.

Jordan stands to benefit from the development of the Gaza marine gas field that can be leveraged to create interdependencies. Jordanian state-owned National Electric Power Company (NEPCO) signed in 2015 a Letter of Intent (LoI) with then operator of the Gaza marine field for the supply of approximately 180 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas per day from the Gaza marine field to Jordan. Despite that the LoI is not technically doable at this point due to lack of proper pipeline network, Jordan’s political commitment is timeless.

Development of a regional energy and transportation infrastructure can pave the way for the promotion of quadripartite trade between Jordan, Egypt, Palestine, and Israel.  For example, a “water-energy nexus” in a project where solar can be used to generate energy, which would in turn power desalination plants and generate shared drinking water can prove multiply beneficial. As the Jordanian public is averse to importing Israeli gas, converting it into water could scour the stigma not only facilitating trade but also delivering dividends of peace in the form of shared resources.

An additional project that can enhance interdependencies and complementarities is the proposed development of a monorail that would carry hundreds of containers per day from the Israeli port of Haifa to the Jordanian land port of Haditha thus improving trade and supply chain operations for Palestine, Israel, and Gulf countries. There are certain political roadblocks, however, that must be overcome such as the need to achieve equal access for Israelis and Palestinians, and the consent of Egypt due to the project’s likely impact on the Suez Canal’s traffic.  

Jordan stands to benefit from development of gas discoveries offshore Gaza. Aqaba’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal has the potential to become a second regional energy hub. Out of various options, Palestinian gas can be directed to Egyptian liquefaction plants and onward to Jordan, where it could be piped via the Arab Gas Pipeline to Syria, and Lebanon. This scheme would help diversify the region’s energy suppliers and routes. It would also advance Jordan’s energy diversification efforts, which include the import of gas primarily from Egypt, the further development of domestic fields like the Risha gas field, construction of a dual oil and gas pipeline from Iraq, and acceleration of the shift toward renewables.

A Final Note

Unquestionably, energy cooperation and the related economic development along with security considerations were key components that led to the preliminary Palestinian-Israeli agreement on the development of the Gaza marine gas field, with Hamas at the backyard. Considering its promising economic, security, and diplomatic benefits for Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel, it has become more than evident that the Gaza marine gas development project must be implemented swiftly. Simply put, a “win-win” enterprise seems to be on the regional horizon!

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5 ways to power the energy transition

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Transitioning to renewable energy is the key to securing humanity’s survival, as “without renewables, there can be no future”, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, ahead of the International Day of Clean Air for Blue Skies, marked on 7 September.Renewable technologies like wind and solar power are, in most cases, cheaper than the fossil fuels that are driving climate change, but the world needs to prioritize the transformation of energy systems to renewable energy.

The Climate Ambition Summit, scheduled for 20 September at UN Headquarters in New York, will consider how to accelerate this transformation.

Here are five ways that acceleration could happen:

1. Shift energy subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy

Fossil fuel subsidies are one of the biggest financial barriers hampering the world’s shift to renewable energy.

The UN Secretary-General has consistently called for an end to all international public and private funding of fossil fuels, one of the major contributors to global warming, calling any new investments in them “delusional”.

“All actors must come together to accelerate a just and equitable transition from fossil fuels to renewables, as we stop oil and gas expansion and funding and licensing for new coal, oil, and gas,” he said.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed that $5.9 trillion was spent on subsidizing the fossil fuel industry in 2020 alone. This figure includes subsidies, tax breaks, and health and environmental damages that were not priced into the initial cost of fossil fuels. 

That’s roughly $11 billion a day.

Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy leads to a reduction in their use and also contributes to sustainable economic growth, job creation, better public health, and more equality, particularly for the poorest and most vulnerable communities around the world.

2. Triple investments in renewables

An estimated $4 trillion a year needs to be invested in renewable energy until 2030 in order to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Net zero is the term which describes achieving the balance between carbon emitted into the atmosphere and the carbon removed from it.

Investment in renewables will cost significantly less compared to subsidizing fossil fuels. The reduction of pollution and climate impact alone could save the world up to $4.2 trillion per year by 2030.

The funding is there, but commitment and accountability are needed, particularly from global financial systems. This includes multilateral development banks and other financial institutions, which must align their lending portfolios towards accelerating the renewable energy transition.

“Renewables are the only path to real energy security, stable power prices and sustainable employment opportunities,” the UN chief said.

He has further urged “all governments to prepare energy transition plans” and encouraged “CEOs of all oil and gas companies to be part of the solution”.

3. Make renewable energy technology a global public good

For renewable energy technology to be a global public good, meaning available to all and not just to the wealthy, efforts must aim to dismantle roadblocks to knowledge-sharing and the transfer of technology, including intellectual property rights barriers.

Essential technologies such as battery storage systems allow energy from renewables to be stored and released when people, communities, and businesses need power.

When paired with renewable generators, battery storage technologies can provide both reliable and cheaper electricity to isolated grids and off-grid communities in remote locations, for example, in IndiaTanzania, and Vanuatu.

4. Improve global access to components and raw materials

A robust supply of renewable energy components and raw materials is a game changer. More widespread access to all the key components and materials is needed, from the minerals required for building wind turbines and electricity networks to elements for producing electric vehicles.

The UN’s International Seabed Authority is currently working with its Member States on how to exploit such abundant mineral resources in international waters as those crucial for manufacturing batteries while ensuring the effective protection of the marine environment from harmful effects that may arise from deep-seabed-related activities.

It will take significant international coordination to expand and diversify manufacturing capacity globally. Greater investments are needed, including in people’s skills training, research and innovation, and incentives to build supply chains through sustainable practices that protect ecosystems.

5. Level the playing field for renewable energy technologies

While global cooperation and coordination is critical, domestic policy frameworks must urgently be reformed to streamline and fast-track renewable energy projects and catalyse private sector investments.

Technology, capacity, and funds for renewable energy transition exist, but policies and processes must be introduced to reduce market risks to both enable and incentivise investment, while simultaneously preventing bottlenecks and red tape.

Nationally determined contributions, or countries’ individual action plans to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts, must set renewable energy targets that align with the goal of limiting the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.

To achieve this, it is estimated that the share of renewables in global electricity generation must grow from 29 per cent today to 60 per cent by 2030.

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Women of the Global South Are Key to the Energy Transition

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As a businesswoman who has dedicated my life to elevating opportunities for African women, I’ve seen how the historical exclusion of women – and especially women from Africa and the Global South – from international climate talks has derailed climate action.

Only by rectifying this systematic marginalisation of women can Africa fulfil its true potential as a leading global renewables powerhouse.

That is why I am celebrating attempts at the Africa Climate Summit, the first of its kind being held in my home country Kenya, to push back against entrenched gender inequalities.

If we fail to marry the energy transition with the goal of empowering women, the continent will not succeed in combating climate change.

In a ground-breaking move, the African Union Commission, which represents 55 African countries, signed a joint statement with the Government of Kenya and the UAE presidency of the upcoming COP28 UN talks in Dubai, endorsing the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency to stay within the 1.5C safe limit for global warming. The statement also calls for a “comprehensive systems change”, including the need to transform “food and health systems” while protecting nature and biodiversity.

Neither African governments nor previous COP presidencies have placed such wildly ambitious goals on the political agenda before. And although these goals have not yet taken the shape of a binding agreement, they are being supported with real action.

At the Africa Climate Summit, COP28 president Dr Sultan Al Jabr announced that the COP28 presidency itself will invest $4.5 billion to mobilise up to tens of billions more in African clean energy projects. According to Al Jabr, the point of the pledge is “to clearly demonstrate the commercial case for clean investment across this continent” and to create “a scalable model that can be replicated to help put Africa on a superhighway to low carbon growth”.

This is a huge milestone—with one major caveat: women must become linchpins in the continent’s new, evolving clean energy landscape.

That means overturning years of women being side-lined in climate talks and overlooked in governmental and institutional planning. Just 9% of energy project aid focuses on gender equality, and the UN’s clean energy goal (SDG7) omits gender entirely.

Currently women bear the worst impacts of climate change and energy poverty, accounting for 80% of food production and over 60% of agricultural employment in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet over three-quarters of total public climate-development finance in Africa this decade failed to consider gender at all.

And across Africa, women are marginalised from politics, education and employment. Previous UN climate talks have in effect discussed an ‘energy transition’ by and for men.

This gender-blindness is literally killing the planet. Companies with more women on their boards are more likely to lead them into policies aligned with the goal of capping climate change at 1.5C; and women around the world overall do more than men to change their behaviour to reduce emissions: so excluding them is an existential risk.

That’s why I’m celebrating how this week African nations are uniting for the first time not just to combat Africa’s climate threat, but also to highlight the gender inequalities preventing us from implementing real solutions.

As the First Lady of Kenya, Rachel Ruto, pointed out at the summit, only by equipping women with knowledge and skills can they be empowered to become champions of clean energy and sustainability. She convened a meeting of senior women leaders at the summit to focus on the critical importance of women to the success of the energy transition.

The lessons of the Africa Climate Summit must be taken all the way to the United Nations climate talks later this year. The goal of tripling renewable energy capacity, as the African Union Commission has now endorsed, is only one half of the equation. The other half is removing the barriers preventing women from racing toward this target. This must be enshrined in any global agreement – without it, not only Africa’s but the world’s clean energy transition will fail.

There are signs of progress. COP28 has already appointed women to senior roles representing the presidency, with Shamma Al Mazrui, UAE Minister of Community Development, appointed as Youth Climate Champion and Razan Al Mubarak, President of the International Union for Conservation of Nature appointed as the UN Climate Change High-Level Champion.

And just under half of COP28’s advisory committee are women, a big step-up compared to previous COPs which failed to include women at a senior role. The presidency has also called on all delegations to explicitly increase the role of women and young people in negotiations to make this “the most inclusive” COP.

Yet though these are big milestones, they are still baby steps. It’s time for world leaders to recognise that without empowering the world’s women on the frontlines of the battle against climate change, no global agreements will produce the change we need.

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